Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:05 AM

Big 10 Trends and Angles

Venue: Madison Square Garden - New York City

Overall Betting Results
Favorites/Underdogs: 5-7 SU, 1-11 ATS
Over/Under: 7-5

Sunday, March 4

Finals
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
vs.
No. 5 Michigan
Overall: 27-7 SU, 21-11-1 ATS
Totals: 16-16-1 O/U

No. 3 Purdue
Overall: 29-5 SU, 15-17-1 ATS
Totals: 16-17-1 O/U
No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 5 Michigan (CBS, 4:30 p.m. ET)
The Wolverines are seeking their second consecutive Big 10 tournament title after knocking off rival Michigan State on Saturday, 75-64 as 5.5-point underdogs. Michigan has won eight straight games and 13 of the past 16 contests since getting squeezed by Purdue at home on January 9 by one point, 70-69. The Wolverines dropped both matchups with the Boilermakers this season, including a 92-88 setback in West Lafayette as 11-point 'dogs in late January.

The Boilermakers pulled away from Penn State on Saturday, 78-70, but Purdue failed to cash for the second straight game in the Big 10 tournament as it closed as 8.5-point favorites. Matt Painter's team dropped to 1-10-1 ATS the last 12 games overall as all 10 ATS defeats came as a favorite of 8.5 points or more. Purdue lost to Michigan in the Big 10 tourney last season in overtime, 74-70, as the Boilermakers are seeking their first tournament championship since 2009.
Michigan 75
Purdue 79

Saturday, March 3

Semifinals
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
vs.
No. 5 Michigan
Overall: 26-7 SU, 20-11-1 ATS
Totals: 15-16-1 O/U

No. 1 Michigan State
Overall: 29-3 SU, 15-15-2 ATS
Totals: 15-16 O/U
No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 1 Michigan State (CBS, 2:00 p.m. ET)
The Wolverines grabbed their seventh straight win by cruising past Nebraska, 77-58 as five-point favorites in the conference quarterfinals. Michigan avenged a blowout loss at Nebraska in January as the Wolverines improved to 6-1 ATS during this seven-game winning streak. In the only meeting this season between Michigan and Michigan State, the Wolverines took care of the Spartans in East Lansing, 82-72 to win outright as 9.5-point underdogs in mid-January. Michigan State had won five straight meetings before Michigan has captured the past two matchups.

The Spartans edged past Wisconsin in the Big 10 quarterfinals on Friday, 63-60, but failed to cash as 12-point favorites. Michigan State finished UNDER the total for the sixth consecutive contest, but the Spartans own a 2-6-2 ATS record in the previous 10 games. The Spartans have won the Big 10 tournament in even years the last three times around (2012, 2014, and 2016), while the Wolverines seek their second straight conference tournament championship appearance.
Michigan 72
Michgan State 79
vs.
No. 7 Penn State
Overall: 21-12 SU, 16-12-1 ATS
Totals: 13-16 O/U

No. 3 Purdue
Overall: 28-5 SU, 15-16-1 ATS
Totals: 15-17-1 O/U
No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 3 Purdue (CBS, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Penn State pulled off its third victory over Ohio State this season by downing the Buckeyes, 69-68 as five-point underdogs in the quarterfinals. The Nittany Lions have covered in nine of the past 12 games, which includes the three wins over the Buckeyes in this stretch. PSU also cashed in a 76-73 defeat at Purdue as 9.5-point 'dogs on February 18, but the Nittany Lions have lost six straight meetings with the Boilermakers since 2015.

Purdue struggled with a feisty Rutgers' squad in Friday's quarterfinals, but the Boilermakers advanced with an 82-75 triumph. The Boilermakers trailed by three at halftime, but stormed back in the second half to outscore the Scarlet Knights, 47-37, although Purdue failed to cash as 15.5-point favorites. Purdue fell to 1-9-1 ATS the last 11 games following Friday's ATS defeat, as the Boilermakers look to advance to their first Big 10 title game since 2016, when it lost to Michigan State, 66-62.
Penn State 74
Purdue 81

Friday, March 2

Quarterfinals
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
vs.
No. 9 Wisconsin
Overall: 15-17 SU, 15-15-1 ATS
Totals: 13-16-2 O/U

No. 1 Michigan State
Overall: 28-3 SU, 15-14-2 ATS
Totals: 15-15 O/U
No. 9 Wisconsin vs. No. 1 Michigan State (BTN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Badgers have saved their best basketball for the end of the season as they stayed alive by holding off Maryland, 59-54 in the second round. Wisconsin has won four of its past five games while owning a remarkable 5-0 ATS record in this stretch. The Badgers lost twice to Michigan State this season, but Wisconsin managed to pick up covers each time as an underdog.

The Spartans closed the season on a 12-game winning streak, capped off by a 68-63 victory at Wisconsin as 7.5-point favorites. Michigan State has held five straight opponents to 65 points or less, resulting in five consecutive UNDERS. Tom Izzo's team has struggled to cover numbers down the stretch by compiling a 2-6-2 ATS mark in the final 10 contests, including a 1-4-1 ATS ledger away from East Lansing.
Wisconsin 61
Michigan State 74
vs.
No. 5 Michigan
Overall: 25-7 SU, 19-11-1 ATS
Totals: 15-16-1 O/U

No. 4 Nebraska
Overall: 22-9 SU, 22-7 ATS
Totals: 10-19 O/U
No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 4 Nebraska (BTN, 2:30 p.m. ET)
The Wolverines took their first step to a second straight Big 10 tournament title by outlasting Iowa in overtime on Thursday, 77-71. Michigan failed to cash as nine-point favorites, snapping a five-game ATS hot streak. The Wolverines attempt to avenge an ugly 72-52 setback in Lincoln as five-point favorites in mid-January, their only double-digit loss in Big 10 play.

The Cornhuskers are creeping closer to an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament, as a victory over Michigan will likely lock up a bid. Nebraska amazingly covered in 14 of 16 conference games down the stretch, while winning eight of its final nine contests with the only loss coming in shocking fashion to Illinois. The Huskers posted a 7-2 ATS record away from Lincoln in Big 10 action, but were never listed as a favorite in any of those games.
Michigan 77
Nebraska 75
vs.
No. 7 Penn State
Overall: 20-12 SU, 15-12-1 ATS
Totals: 13-15 O/U

No. 2 Ohio State
Overall: 24-7 SU, 15-14 ATS
Totals: 9-20 O/U
No. 7 Penn State vs. No. 2 Ohio State (BTN, 6:30 p.m. ET)
The Nittany Lions ended a three-game skid by knocking off Northwestern, 65-57 as 5.5-point favorites on Thursday. Penn State improved to 5-0 in Big 10 play when allowing 58 points or fewer, as one of those victories came in a 79-56 home blowout of Ohio State in mid-February. The Nittany Lions pulled off a season sweep of the Buckeyes, which included a buzzer-beating upset of OSU in Columbus as 9.5-point 'dogs.

The Buckeyes closed the regular season in dramatic fashion by edging Indiana in double-overtime, 80-78 with a late three-pointer. Ohio State started Big 10 play at 8-0 ATS, but finished at 4-6 ATS, although three non-covers came as a favorite of 9.5 points or more. OSU has failed to cover in three straight conference tournament games, including a surprising loss to Rutgers in 2017.
Penn State 78
Ohio State 74
vs.
No. 14 Rutgers
Overall: 15-18 SU, 13-12 ATS
Totals: 11-13-1 O/U

No. 3 Purdue
Overall: 27-5 SU, 15-15-1 ATS
Totals: 14-17-1 O/U
No. 14 Rutgers vs. No. 3 Purdue (BTN, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The biggest story through the first two days of the Big 10 tournament is the sudden emergence of Rutgers, who pulled out a solid 76-69 upset of Indiana to advance to the quarterfinals. Heading into this tournament, Rutgers owned a 2-38 record away from Piscataway in 40 conference road/neutral site games. In two nights, the Scarlet Knights are 2-0 SU/ATS at this season's conference tournament, as Rutgers hung with Purdue in its last matchup, a 78-76 home loss as 15.5-point home underdogs in February.

Purdue started Big 10 play on fire by pulling out 12 consecutive victories over conference foes. However, a three-game losing streak knocked the Boilermakers out of first place in the Big 10 and effectively harmed a chance at a top seed in the NCAA tournament. Purdue rebounded with three straight wins to end the season, but the Boilermakers struggled to cover numbers by putting together a 1-8-1 ATS mark in the final 10 contests.
Rutgers 72
Purdue 84

Thursday, March 1

Second Round
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
vs.
No. 9 Wisconsin
Overall: 14-17 SU, 14-15-1 ATS
Totals: 13-15-2 O/U

No. 8 Maryland
Overall: 19-12 SU, 15-11-1 ATS
Totals: 11-15 O/U
No. 9 Wisconsin vs. No. 8 Maryland (BTN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Badgers have reached the Sweet 16 in each of the past four seasons, but their only ticket back to the NCAA tournament is running the table in New York City the next four days. Wisconsin started Big 10 play at 3-9, but put together a solid finish by winning four of the final six games. The Badgers have covered their last four contests, including underdog wins over Purdue and Northwestern.

The Terrapins never won more than two games in a row in Big 10 play, as they lost the season finale to Michigan by 24 points. Maryland held off Wisconsin in its only matchup this season in College Park, 68-63 in early February, but failed to cash as seven-point favorites. The Terps and Badgers have never met in the Big 10 tournament as Maryland is 2-1 SU/ATS in its opening round game in this tournament.
Wisconsin 64
Maryland 67
vs.
No. 12 Iowa
Overall: 13-18 SU, 10-15-2 ATS
Totals: 19-9 O/U

No. 5 Michigan
Overall: 24-7 SU, 19-10-1 ATS
Totals: 14-16-1 O/U
No. 12 Iowa vs. No. 5 Michigan (BTN, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Iowa extended its season by outlasting Illinois on Wednesday, 96-87, topping the 90-point mark for the fourth time against conference opponents. The Hawkeyes have won two straight since a six-game skid, while trying to avenge a pair of regular season losses to Michigan. Iowa won a Big 10 tournament game for the first time since 2013, as the Hawkeyes lost in the following game to Michigan State, but covered as six-point 'dogs.

The Wolverines are basically a lock for the NCAA tournament, as Michigan seeks its second consecutive Big 10 tournament championship. Since losing to Northwestern in early February, Michigan has run off five consecutive wins and covers, including road victories at Penn State and Maryland. The Wolverines covered in all four victories in last season's conference tournament, while facing Iowa in this tourney for the first time since 2010.
Iowa 79
Michigan 85
vs.
No. 10 Northwestern
Overall: 15-16 SU, 11-17 ATS
Totals: 11-17 O/U

No. 7 Penn State
Overall: 19-12 SU, 14-12-1 ATS
Totals: 13-14 O/U
No. 10 Northwestern vs. No. 7 Penn State (BTN, 6:30 p.m. ET)
The Wildcats reached their first ever NCAA tournament last season but are far from an at-large bid this time around. Northwestern could never create consistency during Big 10 play, punctuated by a six-game losing skid to close out conference play. In that stretch, the Wildcats posted a 1-5 ATS mark, including losses to Wisconsin, Maryland, and Rutgers as a favorite.

The Nittany Lions have plenty to play for this week at Madison Square Garden after suffering three straight losses to end Big 10 play. Penn State had won six of seven, including a sweep of Ohio State before setbacks to Purdue, Michigan, and Nebraska. The Nittany Lions and Wildcats split a pair of matchups this season with the home team winning each time, as neither team has ever won the Big 10 tournament.
Northwestern 71
Penn State 76
vs.
No. 14 Rutgers
Overall: 14-18 SU, 12-12 ATS
Totals: 10-13-1 O/U

No. 6 Indiana
Overall: 16-14 SU, 18-12 ATS
Totals: 12-17 O/U
No. 14 Rutgers vs. No. 6 Indiana (BTN, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Scarlet Knights picked up a win in the Big 10 tournament for the second straight season after downing Minnesota on Wednesday, 65-54. Rutgers won its first game away from Piscataway this season on Wednesday, while improving to 4-4 ATS in the last eight games. The Scarlet Knights are looking to avenge a 65-43 home loss to Indiana in early February, dropping to 0-5 against the Hoosiers since entering the conference in 2014.

Indiana was the top ATS team in the Big 10 down the stretch by covering 12 of its final 15 games, including a 6-0 SU/ATS mark as a favorite. The Hoosiers enter the Big 10 tournament off consecutive losses to Nebraska and Ohio State, while compiling a 3-6 record away from Bloomington in conference action.
Rutgers 68
Indiana 79

Wednesday, February 28

Opening Round
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
vs.
No. 13 Illinois
Overall: 14-17 SU, 12-14-1 ATS
Totals: 11-15-1 O/U

No. 12 Iowa
Overall: 13-18 SU, 10-15-2 ATS
Totals: 18-9 O/U
No. 13 Illinois vs. No. 12 Iowa (BTN, 5:30 p.m. ET)
Following a 6-0 start to the season, Illinois won eight of its final 25 games, including four victories in Big 10 play. The Fighting Illini closed the season by splitting their last four games, capped off by a road victory over last-place Rutgers. Illinois suffered three overtime losses to conference foes, including a 104-97 home setback to Iowa on January 11 as 4.5-point favorites.

The Hawkeyes snapped a six-game skid by knocking off Northwestern in the season finale, 77-70. Iowa won only one road game in Big 10 action by beating Illinois, while compiling 1-8 ATS mark away from Iowa City in conference action. Both teams put together 4-14 conference marks as these teams are meeting in the Big 10 tournament for the first time since 2016 when the Fighting Illini edged the Hawkeyes, 68-66 as 10.5-point 'dogs.
Illinois 78
Iowa 76
vs.
No. 14 Rutgers
Overall: 13-18 SU, 11-12 ATS
Totals: 10-12-1 O/U

No. 11 Minnesota
Overall: 15-16 SU, 11-19 ATS
Totals: 15-15 O/U
No. 14 Rutgers vs. No. 11 Minnesota (BTN, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Minnesota turned into the biggest disappointment in the Big 10 following a 24-win season in 2017 and an NCAA tournament appearance. The Golden Gophers jumped out to a 13-3 start prior to a dismal 2-13 finish, including one win since January 16. Minnesota wrapped up Big 10 play at 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS away from Minneapolis, but one of its four conference victories came against Rutgers in early December, 89-67.

For the third consecutive season, the Scarlet Knights finished in last place of the Big 10, but picked up their most wins in conference play with three. None of those victories came away from Piscataway, as Rutgers scored 60 points or less in seven of nine road conference contests. Rutgers has won only once in the Big 10 tournament in its three-year stay in the conference, upsetting Ohio State last season in the opening round. Minnesota defeated Rutgers in the opening game of the Big 10 tournament in 2015 as 10.5-point favorites, 80-68.
Rutgers 61
Minnesota 70


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