Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:05 AM

SEC Trends and Angles

ACC · Big 12 · Big East · Pac-12 · SEC

Venue: Scottrade Center - St. Louis, Missouri

Overall Betting Results
Favorites/Underdogs: 8-4 SU, 4-6-2 ATS
Over/Under: 7-5

Sunday, March 11

Matchup Records Skinny Projection
No. 2 Tennessee
Overall: 25-7 SU, 18-12 ATS
Totals: 12-18 O/U

No. 4 Kentucky
Overall: 23-10 SU, 16-17 ATS
Totals: 16-15 O/U
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 4 Kentucky (ESPN, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Volunteers were the best SEC team remaining after the dust cleared Friday, and they looked the part on Saturday when dusting Arkansas. They made quick work of the Hogs, 84-66, in the semis, and will now face their rivals from Lexington in the final. These teams met twice during the regular season, with the Vols sweeping the season series. Tennessee won the most recent meeting 61-59 at Rupp Arena on Feb. 6, and they took a 76-65 decision in Knoxville back on Jan. 6, covering both affairs while the 'under' also cashed in each. This will be Tennessee's first trip to the title game since 2009. They haven't won the tournament since 1979.

The Wildcats are no stranger to Championship Sunday in the SEC, as this is their fifth consecutive appearance, and they are aiming for their fourth consecutive title, too. These teams haven't met for the SEC title since 1979 at BJCC Coliseum in Birmingham when the Vols edged the Wildcats 75-69 in overtime. As mentioned, Kentucky was swept by Tennessee in regular season, but lately they have been cover kings. The Wildcats are 6-1 ATS over their past seven games with the 'over' also going 6-1 during the span. On a neutral-site floor, Kentucky is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in five games this season.
Tennessee 79
Kentucky 82

Saturday, March 10

Matchup Records Skinny Projection
No. 9 Alabama
Overall: 19-14 SU, 17-14-1 ATS
Totals: 11-21 O/U

No. 4 Kentucky
Overall: 22-10 SU, 15-17 ATS
Totals: 15-15 O/U
No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 4 Kentucky (ESPN, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Alabama's Cinderella run continues, as they took care of the top seed and rival Auburn on Friday to survive and advance. They met Kentucky just once during the regular season, suffering an 81-71 setback in Lexington. Of course, the last time they faced Auburn they were drummed by 19, and the last time they faced Texas A&M they also lost. They also had five losses in a row to close out the regular season, so previous results should be taken with a grain of salt.

The Wildcats won their tournament opener against Georgia, 62-49, and they have wn and covered five of their past six outings. Kentucky is looking like a team that is peaking at the right time, and they're catching a break not having to face the No. 1 seed Auburn. Total bettors might like the 'over' in this one, as it is 5-1 across the past six, including their meeting Feb. 17 against Bama.
Alabama 71
Kentucky 84
No. 2 Tennessee
Overall: 24-7 SU, 17-12 ATS
Totals: 11-18 O/U

No. 6 Arkansas
Overall: 23-10 SU, 17-15-1 ATS
Totals: 17-15 O/U
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 6 Arkansas (ESPN, 3:00 p.m. ET)
The Volunteers are the top seed remaining in the SEC after Auburn was shown the door by Alabama on Friday. They have a tough road to hoe, however, as Arkansas has reached the Final in two of the past three seasons, so they have experience surviving and advancing. And if their earlier meeting with the Hogs is any indication, this one could be fun. Arkansas outlasted Tennessee in Fayetteville on Dec. 30 by a 95-93 count in overtime.

The Razorbacks bounced Florida on Friday, winning for the eighth time in their past 10 contests. The Razorbacks cover on Friday helped them improve to 7-2-1 ATS over the past 10. They're also 5-1 SU in six neutral-site battles while posting a 4-1-1 ATS mark. These teams last met in the 2015 SEC Quarterfinals, with the Hogs coming away with an 80-72 victory in Nashville.
Tennessee 76
Arkansas 79

Friday, March 9

Matchup Records Skinny Projection
No. 9 Alabama
Overall: 18-14 SU, 16-14-1 ATS
Totals: 11-20 O/U

No. 1 Auburn
Overall: 25-6 SU, 19-10 ATS
Totals: 15-14 O/U
No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Auburn (ESPN, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The "Iron Bowl" version of this matchup hits the hardwood this afternoon as the Crimson Tide advanced to the quarterfinals with a 71-70 buzzer-beating victory over Texas A&M on Thursday. Alabama lost its final five games of the regular season, which included a 90-71 blowout loss at Auburn as seven-point underdogs. The Tide knocked off the Tigers in Tuscaloosa, 76-71 as two-point underdogs in January, the only victory in the last four matchups with Auburn.

The Tigers finished in first place of the SEC for the first time since 1999, while winning 13 conference games. Auburn lost three of its final five games, while posting a 1-4 ATS record in this span following an 11-2 ATS start in league play. The Tigers are seeking their first SEC tournament title since 1985, as Auburn has lost in its first SEC tournament game each of the past two years.
Alabama 76
Auburn 85
No. 12 Georgia
Overall: 18-14 SU, 16-13 ATS
Totals: 11-18 O/U

No. 4 Kentucky
Overall: 21-10 SU, 14-17 ATS
Totals: 18-12 O/U
No. 12 Georgia vs. No. 4 Kentucky (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)
The Bulldogs won for the second straight day in the SEC tournament by knocking out Missouri as 3.5-point underdogs, 62-60. Georgia hasn't won three straight games in SEC play this season, but the 'Dawgs are 4-1 ATS in the last five games in the underdog role. Kentucky and Georgia met in the SEC opener on December 31 in Lexington as the Wildcats held off the Bulldogs, 66-61, but failed to cash as 9.5-point favorites.

The Wildcats are seeking their fourth consecutive SEC tournament title in spite of being listed as the fourth seed. UK won four straight games before getting routed in the season finale at Florida, 80-67, but the 'Cats have won and covered four of their last six in the favorite role. Kentucky knocked out Georgia in last season's SEC tournament, 71-60 to cash as 10.5-point favorites.
Georgia 72
Kentucky 81
No. 7 Mississippi State
Overall: 22-10 SU, 12-14-1 ATS
Totals: 12-15 O/U

No. 2 Tennessee
Overall: 23-7 SU, 17-11 ATS
Totals: 11-17 O/U
No. 7 Mississippi State vs. No. 2 Tennessee (SEC, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The second biggest story in the SEC this season behind Auburn's resurgence was the unexpected success out of Tennessee. The Volunteers were predicted to finish towards the bottom of the SEC, but UT posted an impressive 13-5 conference mark, while losing the tiebreaker for the top seed with an early conference loss to Auburn. The Vols finished the season strong with four straight wins, including a 76-54 blowout of Mississippi State in Starkville in late February.

The Bulldogs were another surprise team in the SEC following years of missing the NCAA tournament as Miss State overcame an early 2-5 hole in SEC play to win seven of their final 11 games. Miss State covered eight consecutive games from late January through mid-February, but the Bulldogs are currently on an 0-3-1 ATS skid after pushing in Thursday's 80-77 win over LSU.
Mississippi State 72
Tennessee 74
No. 6 Arkansas
Overall: 22-10 SU, 16-15-1 ATS
Totals: 16-15 O/U

No. 3 Florida
Overall: 20-11 SU, 15-14-1 ATS
Totals: 13-16 O/U
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 3 Florida (SEC, 9:25 p.m. ET)
The Razorbacks have reached the SEC tournament championship in two of the last three seasons before getting bounced by Kentucky. Arkansas took its first step back towards the title game with a 69-64 victory over South Carolina on Thursday, but pushed as five-point favorites. The Hogs have played well down the stretch by winning seven of their last nine games, including victories over Auburn, Texas A&M, and Alabama.

The Gators rode a roller-coaster through SEC play that included road wins at Texas A&M, Missouri, and Alabama, but home losses to South Carolina and Georgia and a questionable road defeat at Vanderbilt. Florida crushed Arkansas in their lone meeting in Gainesville in mid-January, 88-73 as 6.5-point favorites, while the Gators are riding a hot streak by winning and covering each of their last three contests.
Arkansas 74
Florida 71

Thursday, March 8

Second Round
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
No. 8 Texas A&M
Overall: 20-11 SU, 13-15 ATS
Totals: 14-14 O/U

No. 9 Alabama
Overall: 17-14 SU, 15-14-1 ATS
Totals: 10-20 O/U
No. 8 Texas A&M vs. No. 9 Alabama (SEC, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Aggies split the season series with Tide, winning the regular-season finale by a 68-66 score. A&M spent plenty of time in the Top 25, particularly early in the season, but a sound beating from Alabama on Dec. 30 really seemed to knock them off the rails. It was only recently that they recovered, winning three games in a row. Of course, those three wins came against the No. 9, No. 12 and No. 13 seeds in the SEC Tournament, so is it that impressive?

The impressive freshmen on Alabama will pay dividends one day, and if they stay in school long enough this team is going to be a force to be reckoned with. Bama throttled A&M earlier this season by a 79-57 score in perhaps their most impressive victory of the season. It's been mostly downhill since, including a five-game losing skid to close out the regular season. This team had a shot at an NCAA Tournament at-large bid with a few wins down the stretch, but that ship has likely sailed. This is their tournament to make noise, but will they?
Texas A&M 73
Alabama 69
No. 5 Missouri
Overall: 20-11 SU, 16-14 ATS
Totals: 12-18 O/U

No. 12 Georgia
Overall: 17-14 SU, 15-13 ATS
Totals: 11-17 O/U
No. 5 Missouri vs. No. 12 Georgia (SEC, 3:25 p.m. ET)
The Tigers managed to get to the 20-win mark this season, perhaps more quietly than any other team in the nation. They have had a couple of three-game losing streaks this season, but there aren't many bad losses that stand out on their resume outside of a neutral-site setback to Illinois on Dec. 23. They were just 2-2 SU in neutral-site games this season, but they're 3-1 ATS in the four outings.

UGA tangled with Mizzou just once this season, suffering a 68-56 loss against the Tigers on Jan. 10 in Columbia. The Bulldogs extended their season another day by spanking Vanderbilt in Day One action, but their ride is expected to end in this one. They have posted a 5-9 SU record over the past 14 dating back to Jan. 20, and they're 7-7 ATS during the span. In neutral-site action, they're 2-1 SU/ATS in three tries, including a quality win against St. Mary's (CA) back on Nov. 26 in Fullerton, Calif.
Missouri 70
Georgia 63
No. 7 Mississippi State
Overall: 21-10 SU, 12-14 ATS
Totals: 11-15 O/U

No. 10 Louisiana State
Overall: 17-13 SU, 14-12-1 ATS
Totals: 14-13 O/U
No. 7 Mississippi State vs. No. 10 Louisiana State (SEC, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Mississippi State and Louisiana State met just once during the regular season, and that came in the finale on Saturday. So of course they'd draw each other in the SEC Quarterfinals. Mississippi State would probably rather see anyone else, as they were hammered in Baton Rouge by a 78-57 score as one-point underdogs. The Bulldogs enter this game on an 0-3 ATS skid, although they were 8-0 ATS in the previous eight before that. MSU played just one neutral-site game this season, nipping Southern Miss on Dec. 23, but failing to cover.

The Tigers spanked the Bulldogs in the finale, and they might be playing their best basketball of the season. LSU topped 20-win Mizzou on Feb. 17, and they also have quality victories with a two-game sweep of Arkansas and a sweep ofTexas A&M, too. This team has plenty of talent, it's a matter of consistency. They're 1-2 SU/ATS in three neutral-site battles, but that lone win was against Big Ten Tournament champion Michigan.
Mississippi State 73
LSU 79
No. 6 Arkansas
Overall: 21-10 SU, 16-15 ATS
Totals: 16-14 O/U

No. 11 South Carolina
Overall: 17-15 SU, 16-14-1 ATS
Totals: 14-17 O/U
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 11 South Carolina (SEC, 9:25 p.m. ET)
The Razorbacks roughed up the Gamecocks in the only meeting of the season on Feb. 6, winning by a 81-65 score. Arkansas has spent some time in the Top 25, and they have talent to be a Sweet Sixteen team. They enter the tournament on a 6-2 SU/ATS stretch over their past eight outings, and they're 2-1 SU/ATS in three neutral-site battles. 

The Gamecocks made an improbable run to the Final Four last season, but they were forced to play on Day One of the SEC Tournament this season. It will take a miracle for them to go dancing again, but it's all about survive and advance for South Carolina at this point. They're 4-2 SU over their past six games, and 6-1 ATS across their past seven outings. In five neutral-site outings they're 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS this season. If they're going to live on and make noise in the SEC, they will need to do better than they did in the first meeting in Fayetteville when they were paddled by a 16 points.
Arkansas 74
South Carolina 62

Wednesday, March 7

Opening Round
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
No. 13 Vanderbilt
Overall: 12-19 SU, 8-20 ATS
Totals: 15-13 O/U

No. 12 Georgia
Overall: 16-14 SU, 14-13 ATS
Totals: 10-17 O/U
No. 13 Vanderbilt vs. No. 12 Georgia (SEC, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Things went off the rails early this season for the Commodores, as they failed to cover in their first nine outings, while going 1-14 ATS in their first 15 contests with a spread. However, once they got into conference play, they were a tough out, particularly at home. Just ask Florida, LSU, Mississippi State, and yes, Georgia. In the only meeting of the season, the 'Dores smacked around the Bulldogs 81-66 as four-point favorites on Feb. 7 as the 'over' (132.5) connected in that game.

The Dawgs and their bettors like the fact the favorite is a perfect 4-0 ATS over the past four meetings. While that's all well and good, UGA has tended to play down to the competition, going 0-4 ATS over their past four against teams with a losing overall record. Georgia is a respectable 3-3 SU/4-2 ATS across their final six regular season contests, including quality wins against likely Tournament teams Florida and Tennessee. Still, it's hard to forget about the 15-point drumming they took from Vandy in Nashville on Feb. 7.
Vanderbilt 68
Georgia 66
No. 14 Mississippi
Overall: 12-19 SU, 10-20 ATS
Totals: 12-18 O/U

No. 11 South Carolina
Overall: 16-15 SU, 15-14-1 ATS
Totals: 13-17 O/U
No. 14 Mississippi vs. No. 11 South Carolina (SEC, 9:00 p.m. ET)
Mississippi was dead last in the SEC this season, but at one point they had a 1-0 conference record and sat in the first place. That came after a sound 74-69 victory in Oxford against South Carolina on Dec. 31 in the SEC opener for both clubs. It has mostly been downhill for the Rebels since flipping the calendar to 2018, including a 1-10 SU/ATS mark in the final 11 regular season games from Jan. 27-March 3. The only win and cover was a stunning OT victory at Missouri on Feb. 20. 

Last season, South Carolina was a surprise entrant into the Final Four, wearing Cinderella's slipper quite well. If they want a return engagement in the big dance they're likely going to have to run the table in this tournament. Eight of this team's 15 players were taking to the college hardwood for the first time, and it has been a work in progress for head coach Frank Martin. The fact they finished over .500 is a testament to how great of a coach he is. The 'Cocks won three of their final five, and one of the losses was in OT, while the other was against top-seed Auburn in the finale. South Carolina rides a six-game cover streak into Wednesday's contest.
Mississippi 68
South Carolina 74

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