Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 10:05 AM

Big 12 Trends and Angles

ACC · Big 12 · Big East · Pac-12 · SEC

Venue: Sprint Center - Kansas City, Missouri

Overall Betting Results
Favorites/Underdogs: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS
Over/Under: 3-4-1

Saturday, March 10

Finals
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
vs.
No. 3 West Virginia
Overall: 24-9 SU,15-14 ATS
Totals: 14-15 O/U

No. 1 Kansas
Overall: 26-7 SU, 17-14-1 ATS
Totals: 15-16 O/U
No. 3 West Virginia vs. No. 1 Kansas (ESPN, 6:00 p.m. ET)
The Mountaineers make their third consecutive appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game, and they hope it goes better than last season's 80-74 setback against Iowa State in the title game, or the previous matchup in 2016 against these Jayhawks. West Virginia has won and covered both of their first two tournament games, and the 'over' has cashed in four of the past five. They're hoping three is a charm, as the Mountaineers suffered a 71-66 setback in Morgantown on Jan. 15 in a nice comeback by Rock Chalk, and the Jayhawks won at home on Feb. 17 by a 77-69 score to sweep the season series.

Kansas has covered in each of their two tournament games so far, which is a contrast to how they wrapped up the regular season. They were just 6-9-1 ATS in their final 16 games to finish the conference schedule. However, they were able to pick up covers in both games against West Virginia during the span. The Jayhawks have won three in a row against the Mountaineers dating back to Jan. 24, 2017, and they dumped the Mountaineers in the  2016 title game by 10 points, 81-71.
Kansas 83
West Virginia 75


Friday, March 9

Semifinals
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
vs.
No. 4 Kansas State
Overall: 22-10 SU,14-15 ATS
Totals: 10-18 O/U

No. 1 Kansas
Overall: 25-7 SU, 16-14-1 ATS
Totals: 14-16 O/U
No. 4 Kansas State vs. No. 1 Kansas (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Wildcats slipped up in the two regular-season matchups, as Kansas won both meetings with the teams going 1-1 ATS. The 'under' connected in each of the meetings. K-State came up with the 66-64 win over TCU on Thursday, covering for the fifth time in seven outings.

The Jayhawks covered in their 82-68 win against Oklahoma State, exorcising demons from earlier in the season. Kansas beat K-State in their two regular season meetings, splitting covers. Each rival won and covered on each other's floor. Kansas  is stilll 4-5-1 over their past 10 outings.
Kansas State 68
Kansas 76
vs.
No. 3 West Virginia
Overall: 23-9 SU, 14-14 ATS
Totals: 14-14 O/U

No. 2 Texas Tech
Overall: 19-13 SU, 10-20 ATS
Totals: 18-12 O/U
No. 3 West Virginia vs. No. 2 Texas Tech (ESPN2, 9:15 p.m. ET)
The Mountaineers split with the Red Raiders this season, with West Virginia covering both matchups. TTU won in their opening-round game against Texas, although they're just 0-5-1 ATS over the past six outings. West Virginia is just 3-7-1 ATS in their past 11 neutral-site games, but just 2-6 ATS in their past eight vs. the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech enters just 0-5-1 ATS over the past six outings, while going 20 ATS across the past 27 neutral-site games. The 'over' has cashed in five in a row, including five of the past six against teams with a winning overall record.
West Virginia 83
Texas Tech 77


Thursday, March 8

Quarterfinals
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
vs.
No. 4 Kansas State
Overall: 21-10 SU, 13-15 ATS
Totals: 10-17 O/U

No. 5 Texas Christian
Overall: 21-10 SU, 16-12-2 ATS
Totals: 21-9 O/U
No. 4 Kansas State vs. No. 5 Texas Christian (ESPN2, 12:30 p.m. ET)
The Wildcats split their two regular-season games with the Horned Frogs, winning in Manhattan by a 73-68 score back on Jan. 20, with TCU returning the favor in Fort Worth by a 66-59 count on Feb. 27. Kansas State didn't fare well in neutral-site games, going 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS, so this will certainly be a test for them. And in nine conference games away from home, K-State was just 4-5 SU/5-4 ATS.

The Horned Frogs head into Kansas City on a roll, going 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS over the past five outings. That includes their win against the Wildcats on Feb. 27. Total bettors have been liking TCU lately, too, as the 'over' is 4-1 across their past five outings. While K-State has struggled on neutral-site contests, the Horned Frogs are 16-5 ATS across the past 21 on a neutral-site floor. TCU is also 3-0-1 ATS in their past four against teams with a straight-up winning mark.
Kansas State 66
Texas Christian 67
vs.
No. 1 Kansas
Overall: 24-7 SU, 15-14-1 ATS
Totals: 14-16 O/U

No. 8 Oklahoma State
Overall: 19-13 SU, 10-20 ATS
Totals: 18-12 O/U
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 8 Oklahoma State (ESPNU, 2:30 p.m. ET)
The Jayhawks head to Kansas City for their first game of the conference tournament, and they'll face their kryptonite in the quarters. Kansas will face Oklahoma State, the only team to sweep them in conference play this season. The Cowboys just dusted Rock Chalk by an 82-64 count on March in Stillwater in the regular-season finale. OK State also got them at Allen Fieldhouse back on Feb. 3 by an 84-79 score.

Oklahoma State buried skidding Oklahoma in the first-round of the Big 12 Conference tournament, 71-60, covering as a one-point underdog. The Cowboys enter this game on a three-game roll, and that includes their victory against the Jayhawks. They have also covered five in a row, while the 'under' has hit in four straight. Lately, OK State has been very popular at the betting window for their consistency. They look to turn the Big 12 Tournament upside-down, but keep this in mind -- OK State has won four in a row just once this season, back on Nov. 21-Dec. 3, a stretch against Pittsburgh, Houston Baptist, Austin Peay and Mississippi Valley State.
Kansas 83
Oklahoma State 79
vs.
No. 2 Texas Tech
Overall: 23-8 SU, 13-13-1 ATS
Totals: 12-15 O/U

No. 7 Texas
Overall: 18-13 SU, 14-13 ATS
Totals: 13-13 O/U
No. 2 Texas Tech vs. No. 7 Texas (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Red Raiders were flying high earlier in the season as a Top 10 team. However, while they managed to stay afloat in the ultra-competitive Big 12 to grab a two-seed, they are on a big-time slide. They were riding a four-game losing streak until knocking off TCU in the regular-season finale on Saturday. They're still just 0-4-1 ATS over the past five games. The Red Raiders are 2-1 SU/ATS in three neutral-site games this season.

The Longhorns fought off No. 10 seed Iowa State in the opening game, setting up this second-round match. The two Texas schools split against one another, with the Red Raiders holding off the Longhorns in overtime on Jan. 31, 73-71. Texas won the first meeting in Austin by a 67-58 score, covering both meetings this season. While Texas Tech is 5-10-1 ATS over their past 16 games, Texas is 3-2 ATS over the past five, and a respectable 9-6 ATS over the past 15. The Longhorns are 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS in five neutral-site games this season.
Texas Tech 69
Texas 66
vs.
No. 3 West Virginia
Overall: 22-9 SU, 13-14 ATS
Totals: 13-14 O/U

No. 6 Baylor
Overall: 18-13 SU, 14-10 ATS
Totals: 9-14 O/U
No. 3 West Virginia vs. No. 6 Baylor (ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Mountaineers had once climbed as high as No. 2 overall in the Top 25 rankings, but a mid-season swoon had them slipping. They finished up the season with three wins in their final four regular-season games, including a 71-60 victory at Baylor on Feb. 20. They also nipped the Bears 57-54 in Morgantown back on Jan. 9. While West Virginia managed a 3-1 SU record on neutral-site floors, they're just 1-3 ATS in those four outings. The 'under' is also 12-5-2 in the past 19 neutral-site games for the Mountaineers.

Baylor pieced together a five-game winning streak from Feb. 3-17 to give themselves a chance at an NCAA Tournament berth. That streak included wins over Kansas and Texas Tech, the one- and two-seeds in this tournament. However,the team that put an end to that streak was West Virginia, winning by 11 in Waco as a pick 'em in the most recent battle on Feb. 20. The 'under' hit in each of the two battles vs. WVU this season, and the 'under' is 4-1 in the past five in this series.
West Virginia 64
Baylor 57


Wednesday, March 7

Opening Round
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
vs.
No. 9 Oklahoma
Overall: 18-12 SU, 10-19 ATS
Totals: 18-11 O/U

No. 8 Oklahoma State
Overall: 18-13 SU, 14-14 ATS
Totals: 10-18 O/U
No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 8 Oklahoma State (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Sooners were once a highly ranked team and the possibility of playing on the first day of the Big 12 Tournament seemed improbable. A funny thing happened when the Sooners got into conference play, however, as they faltered early and often. In fact, OU hasn't won back-to-back games since Jan. 9-13, posting a dismal 4-10 SU/3-11 ATS across the past 14 since. That includes an 83-81 heartbreaker in overtime in Stillwater on Jan. 20. Oklahoma heads to K.C. with a 3-1 SU record on neutral-site floors, but just 1-3 ATS during those outings.

The Cowboys exacted a little revenge at home after taking it on the chin 109-89 in Norman in their first game of the 2018 calendar year. The Cowboys wrapped up the regular season on a 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS run, including an 18-point victory over Kansas in the finale on Saturday, serving notice to the rest of the league that the Cowboys are a team not to overlook. In fact, they swept the top-seeded Jayhawks this season, and could play them in the Quarterfinals on Thursday if they get by their Bedlam rivals.
Oklahoma 83
Oklahoma State 86
vs.
No. 7 Texas
Overall: 18-13 SU, 14-13 ATS
Totals: 13-13 O/U

No. 10 Iowa State
Overall: 13-17 SU, 10-17-1 ATS
Totals: 16-11 O/U
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 10 Iowa State (ESPNU, 9:00 p.m. ET)
The Longhorns have won back-to-back games just twice since late December, alternating victories and setbacks over each of hte past six outings. Texas really seemed to enjoy working extra this season, too, going to overtime in five of their league games, posting a 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS mark in those outings. One of those games was a New Year's Day victory in Ames, 74-70, covering as a 2 1/2-point favorite. They also paddled the Cyclones 73-57 in Austin on Jan. 22 to sweep the season series.

Iowa State can look at the fact it is often difficult to beat the same team three times in the same season. They can also use the fact the 'Horns haven't won back-to-back games since Jan. 22-27 as motivation. Of course, one of those consecutive wins by Texas was against I-State, so there's that. The 'Clones enter this tournament on a six-game losing skid, going 1-4 ATS over their past five. On a positive note, Iowa State was 4-0 SU in their four neutral-site games this season, covering their past two.
Texas 74
Iowa State 64






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