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Jan 20, 2019

Top 25 Betting Recap

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Each week until March Madness we'll take a look at how the Top 25 fared from college basketball, but straight up and against the number, while also taking a look at their upcoming schedule.

Mississippi (14-3 SU, 15-2 ATS) continues to be a friend to bettors at the window, as all they do is cover. While they did lose this past week to LSU (14-3 SU, 9-7-1 ATS), a team likely poised to join the Top 25, the Rebels are 15-2 against the spread overall, and they haven't failed to cover in back-to-back games since closing out the regular season in 2017-18 on an 0-3 ATS run. As far as the Tigers are concerned, they enter the new week on a 4-0 ATS run, and they have covered six of their past seven overall while covering four of their past five games at home, too. If you like parlays (and, really, who doesn't?), the 'over' has connected in five of the past eight for the Bayou Bengals.

 Texas Tech (15-3 SU, 6-11-1 ATS) will fall out of the Top 10 this week following back-to-back setbacks against unranked teams. The Red Raiders are now a dismal 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight outings heading into the new week. They will face two more unranked clubs this week, but Kansas State (14-4 SU, 9-9 ATS) is not an easy place to play, and then the Red Raiders welcome Arkansas (10-7 SU, 7-10 ATS) to town for the Big 12/SEC Challenge next weekend. 

Michigan State (16-2 SU, 14-4 ATS) continues to cook right along, covering seven straight games heading into the new week. Defense has been huge for the Spartans, and they rank third in the country in field goal percentage defense (36.7 percent). That's been key in the past three games especially, as the 'under' is 3-0 in the past three, and 4-1-1 in the past six. They have a showdown with Iowa (16-3 SU, 10-9 ATS) looming on the horizon at Breslin Center on Thursday evening. After a one-game card last week, Sparty is on for a rare three-game schedule this week, too.

We had some upheaval among the heavyweights this past week, and there are no longer any unbeaten teams in college basketball, too. Tennessee (16-1 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) is poised to take over the No. 1 spot in one or both polls this week, and they'll wear the target on their back for a little while. Duke (15-2 SU, 10-7 ATS) rebounded with a victory against Virginia (16-1 SU, 14-3 ATS) after an earlier loss in the week to Syracuse (13-5 SU, 10-8 ATS). That takes both the Blue Devils and the Hoos out of the equation for No. 1, although they're very well expected to remain in the Top 5. Michigan (17-1 SU, 9-9 ATS) fumbled away their chance at the top spot when they were upended at Wisconsin (12-6 SU, 9-9 ATS), a team which has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde this season.

It appears Indiana (12-6 SU, 7-10 ATS) will be back out of the Top 25 after a pair of losses this week. Louisville (13-5 SU, 9-7-2 ATS) was on the verge of a Top 25 spot last week after their big road win at North Carolina (14-4 SU, 10-6-2 ATS). After two more wins, they likely dealt themselves into the rankings. While they have ticked off plenty of wins, they're just 3-5-1 ATS over the past nine, failing to cover in consecutive games since a 5-0 ATS run from Nov. 23-Dec. 8. Speaking of the Tar Heels, they bounce back after their shocking loss to the Cards, and have posted a solid 6-3-1 ATS mark over the past 10 outings.

Buffalo (16-1 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) is showing no signs of letting up. Sure, they're going to be talked about in a negative light because of a perceived weak schedule. And they did get walloped 103-85 at Marquette (16-3 SU, 12-7 ATS) in a game on Dec. 21 when they squared off against their last ranked opponent. However, they do have a nice 12-point win before that in Syracuse, a team which took down Duke. This team also won at West Virginia (9-9 SU, 6-11-1 ATS) earlier this season, too. Ask Kansas (15-3 SU, 8-10 ATS) how easy it is to win in Morgantown, as the Jayhawks just found out the hard way over the weekend. Anyway, don't write off the Bulls as untested or overrated.

TOP 25 RESULTS
Rank Team Past Week (SU, ATS) Last 10 ATS Upcoming Week Schedule
1 Duke 1-1, 0-2 6-4 at Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech
2 Michigan 0-1, 0-1 4-6 Minnesota, at Indiana
3 Tennessee 2-0, 1-1 7-3 at Vanderbilt, West Virginia
4 Virginia 1-1, 2-0 9-1 Wake Forest, at Notre Dame
5 Gonzaga 2-0, 0-2 8-2 at Santa Clara
6 Michigan State 1-0, 1-0 9-1 Maryland, at Iowa, at Purdue
7 Kansas 1-1, 0-2 4-6 Iowa State, at Kentucky
8 Texas Tech 0-2, 0-2 2-7-1 at Kansas State, Arkansas
9 Virginia Tech 1-1, 0-2 4-6 at North Carolina, Syracuse
10 Nevada 2-0, 0-2 4-6 Colorado State
11 Florida State 0-2, 0-2 3-7 Clemson, at Miami-Florida
12 Kentucky 2-0, 2-0 6-4 Mississippi State, Kansas
13 North Carolina 2-0, 1-1 6-3-1 Virginia Tech
14 Auburn 1-1, 1-1 3-7 at South Carolina, at Mississippi State
15 Marquette 2-0, 2-0 8-2 DePaul, at Xavier
16 Buffalo 2-0, 0-2 6-4 at Northern Illinois, at Kent State
17 N.C. State 1-1, 1-1 6-4 at Louisville, Clemson
18 Mississippi 1-1, 1-1 9-1 at Alabama, Iowa State
19 Maryland 2-0, 2-0 6-3-1 at Michigan State, Illinois (N)
20 Oklahoma 0-2, 1-1 7-2-1 at Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt
21 Houston 2-0, 2-0 6-4 East Carolina, at Tulsa
22 Villanova 1-0, 1-0 7-3 at Butler, Seton Hall
23 Iowa 2-0. 2-0 7-3 Michigan State, at Minnesota
24 Mississippi State 2-0, 1-1 5-5 at Kentucky, Auburn
25 Indiana 0-2, 0-2 5-5 at Northwestern, Michigan


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