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College Basketball

NCAA Basketball Preview and Odds – Davidson at Dayton, Trends, Notes for A-10 matchup

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
2 minute read
The top betting matchup on Friday night’s limited schedule of college basketball games is an Atlantic 10 tilt featuring one of the best teams in the nation.

Kicking off Friday night’s action, the Davidson Wildcats will be on the road against the No. 4 Dayton Flyers, who are looking to extend their perfect SU run in conference play.

Davidson Wildcats at No. 4 Dayton Flyers
(ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Dayton -11, Total 141

Betting Matchup

Davidson has moved to 9-6 SU in A 10 play with four wins in its last five games while going 3-2 against the spread. Tuesday’s 74-49 blowout against LaSalle as an 11-point home favorite stayed UNDER 137 ½ points. It had gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in their previous five contests.

The Wildcats come into the first of three final regular season games at 15-12 SU with a 12-15 record ATS. They have gone 2-7 ATS in nine previous games closing as underdogs. Kellen Grady scored 22 points in Tuesday’s rout with Jon Axel Gudmunsson adding 14 points to the winning cause. These two guards have been Davidsons’ top two scorers all season long with a combined 30.8 points per game.

This roster runs deep with scorers with three more players averaging at least 10 points a game. The Wildcats are putting up 73.2 PPG while shooting 45.3 percent from the field and 36.7 percent from three-point range.

At 15-0 SU in conference play, this will be Dayton’s first and only regular season meeting against Davidson. While the Flyers (26-2 SU, 14-13-1 ATS) have yet to lose an A 10 game, they have been a tough team to bet on at 7-8 ATS. They failed to cover as 12-point road favorites in Tuesday’s 62-55 victory against George Mason.

This dropped their record to 2-5 ATS in their last seven outings. The total has stayed UNDER in five of those seven games.

Dayton’s strong suit the entire season has been the consistent gap between points scored (79.9) and points allowed (65.2). The issue covering the spread in conference play is more about the 10 games closing as a double-digit favorite.

This team goes four deep in double-digit scorers led by Obi Toppin’s 19.7 PPG. The sophomore forward is also pulling down 7.7 rebounds a game. He scored 19 points in Tuesday’s victory after putting up 28 points in his previous start.

Betting Trends

-- The Wildcats have lost four of their last five road games as underdogs both SU and ATS. They are 3-7 (SU and ATS) in their last 10 games as road underdogs. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in seven of those 10 contests.

-- The Flyers are a perfect 15-0 SU this season at home closing as favorites in every game. That record drops to 8-6-1 ATS after failing to cover in three of their last four home games. The total has gone OVER in five of their last seven games played on their home court.

-- In six previous meetings, Dayton has the 4-2 edge SU and Davidson has been able to cover in four of the six games. The total has stayed UNDER in four of those six matchups.

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