Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:47 AM

Mississippi State vs. Tennessee Predictions, Odds

  • January 26, 2021
  • By Thom Cunningham

The Tennessee Volunteers look to shed a current losing streak with a home game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Tip for this SEC showdown is set for 7 p.m. (ET) and will air on the SEC Network.



Mississippi State-Tennessee Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Tennessee -9.5
  • Money-Line: Tennessee -500 Mississippi State +400
  • Total: 129.5

Odds Subject to Change

Tennessee is the home favorite to no surprise, as the oddsmakers aren't shying away from the Vols just yet. Tennessee is given a -9.5-point spread, covering in eight of 13 games this season. Mississippi State is split, going 8-8 on the ATS this year.

The point total is set at 129.5, a bit difficult to decipher based on the school's O/U trends this season. Tennessee has gone UNDER in eight of 13 games, while Mississippi State has gone OVER in 10 of 16 games.

Betting Analysis – Mississippi State Bulldogs

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-7
  • ATS: 8-8
  • SU - Home: 7-5
  • SU - Away: 2-2
  • O/U: 10-6

It's been a roller-coaster season for Mississippi State, as inconsistency once again plagues this team. What do the Bulldogs do well? They rebound, averaging 39.4 per game which ranks 44th nationally - 12.9 are offensive which ranks 24th in the nation.

D.J. Stewart leads the team in points per game with 18, although Iverson Molinar isn't far behind with 17.5. Tolu Smith is the leading rebounder however, averaging 8.8 per game to go along with 13.2 points per game.

Between Smith and Adbul Ado, Mississippi State not only sees rebounding success but also blocking. The Bulldogs average 4.9 blocks per game which ranks 24th in the nation. Smith and Ado lead the team in both categories, so with Tennessee struggling to score these two become crucial parts of Mississippi State's plan to pull off the road upset. Get big.

Betting Analysis – Tennessee Volunteers

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-3
  • ATS: 8-5
  • SU - Home: 8-2
  • SU - Away: 2-1
  • O/U: 5-8

Tennessee is in a funk right now, losing back-to-back games with a total of 113 points in those two games. The Tennessee defense is still one of the best, but the offense has disappeared.

John Fulkerson and Victor Bailey continue to see their point totals drop, but the name that has to start playing better is Santiago Vescovi.

Vescovi still leads the team in assists per game (3.4), but that number has dropped significantly. Also, his point total average is dropping. He has scored just eight points or less in four of his last five games, and hasn't seen more than four assists since Dec. 23.

If Tennessee wants to get back to a March Madness title contender, Vescovi has to do a better job of quarterbacking the offense. Jaden Springer might play as he is questionable, but it seems that Tennessee is a perfect roster that will crumble if one piece is taken away.

Springer is probably the best point scorer on the team, so it makes sense that the offense is struggling while he is out. The fact that Tennessee's offense is struggling so mightily is the surprise here - which falls on Vescovi to command the unit better.

Inside the Stats – Mississippi State Bulldogs

  • PS/G: 71.8 (191st)
  • PA/G: 67.1 (97th)
  • Off Rtg: 105 (120th)
  • Def Rtg: 98.2 (166th)

Inside the Stats – Tennessee Volunteers

  • PS/G: 74 (135th)
  • PA/G: 59.8 (7th)
  • Off Rtg: 108.8 (64th)
  • Def Rtg: 87.9 (14th)

Key Players to Watch

  • MSST - D.J. Stewart (18 PPG)
  • MSST - Iverson Molinar (17.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG)
  • TENN - John Fulkerson (11.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG)
  • TENN - Victor Bailey (11.6 PPG)

Missouri-Tennessee Predictions

Keep your eye on Springer's status, but Tennessee should cover either way. Getting the Vols at home, desperate and the better team in terms of talent should be the thought here. Anything under a double-digit spread is fine to consider.

The point total is interesting, but should go OVER. Expect Tennessee to touch 70, breaking out of an offense funk with determination at home. If Springer plays they might touch 80. Mississippi State might not touch 60, but Tennessee should score enough points to where the Bulldogs might only need 57 for the OVER to touch.

Basically, back Tennessee despite the sluggish two game fumble but the spread seems to be the safer play of the two.

  • Score Prediction: Tennessee 77 Mississippi State 65
  • Best Bets: Tennessee -9.5
  • Best Bets: OVER

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