Last Updated Nov 22, 2021, 1:00 AM

St. Mary's Gaels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Picks, Predictions, Odds

Nov. 22, 2021
Dave Schwab
VI Betting Expert

The nightcap in Monday night’s Maui Invitational in Las Vegas pits the West Coast Conference’s Saint Mary’s Gaels against the ACC’s Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Tip-off on ESPN2 is set for 11:30 p.m. (ET) in this West Coast/East Coast tilt at Michelob Ultra Arena.

Score Prediction

Notre Dame 64, St. Mary's 61

Best Bets


St. Mary's Gaels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Predictions

This should be a good contest between a pair teams that matchup well against one another. Both teams are undefeated coming into Monday night’s late tip and looking for their first real signature win of the year.

St. Mary’s has closed as a double-digit favorite in all four of its games while covering against the spread in two. The Gaels have shown the ability to score points when necessary but defense still appears to be this team’s strong suit this early in the season.

Notre Dame has won its first two outings with relative ease. However, it was unable to cover either of the hefty spreads. This is another team that has relied more heavily on its defense right out of the gate while still scoring enough points to win with ease.

I see this game remaining tight right until the end of the second half. From a betting standpoint, the UNDER on the total line is the value play given each team’s early form on the defensive end of the court.

St. Mary's Gaels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Odds

Odds Provided by Circa Sports - Subject to Change

  • Saint Mary's +102
  • Notre Dame -121
  • Saint Mary's +2.5 (-134)
  • Notre Dame -2.5 (+112)
  • Over 135 (-110)
  • Under 135 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

St. Mary's Gaels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Resources

  • Matchup: WCC vs. ACC
  • Date: Monday, November 22, 2021
  • Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • TV-Time: ESPN2 - 11:30 p.m. ET

St. Mary's Gaels Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 4-0
  • ATS: 2-2
  • O/U: 2-2

With four games under their belts, we have gotten a pretty good look at this year’s Gaels. Their biggest win of the year came against Southern Utah on Nov. 15 in a dominating 70-51 victory as 11-point favorites. They failed to cover their last time out in a 73-63 win over Bellarmine as 15.5- point favorites on the closing spread.

As a testament to St. Mary’s defensive effort, the total has stayed UNDER in two of their last three games. From an offensive standpoint, the Gaels have five different players averaging at least 10 points per game. Forward Dan Fotu has led the way with 13.3 PPG while shooting 58.3% from the field. He is also averaging 5.8 rebounds a game.

Guard Tommy Kuhse has been the team’s most reliable shooter while averaging 10.3 PPG. He is connecting on 45.2% off his shots from the field while going a solid 57.1% on his 14 three- point shots. Forward Kyle Bowen is the team’s leading rebounder with 7.8 a game.

The Gaels are shooting 44.5% from the field and 33% from beyond the three-point line. They gave averaged 74.3 points a game with 35.3 rebounds. They have not allowed more than 68 points in any of their first four outings.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 2-0
  • ATS: 0-2
  • O/U: 0-2

The Fighting Irish have faced Cal State-Northridge and High Point in their first two games, so this will be their first real test of the year. Giving up a combined 113 points, the total stayed UNDER the closing line in each contest.

According to ESPN’s matchup predictor based on its power index, this neutral-site tilt is about as even as it gets. Notre Dame may have the slight edge in scoring behind a trio of players averaging at least 12 PPG.

Forward Paul Atkinson Jr. has led the way with 35 points in his first two games. He has also pulled down 17 rebounds. Freshman guard Blake Wesley scored 21 points in his first college game. Forward Nate Laszewski leads the team in rebounds with 24 in his first two games.

Notre Dame is shooting 41.7% from the field and just 29.3% from three-point range. That could be some cause for concern on Monday night. The Irish have averaged 42 rebounds in their first two games with 26 on the offensive end of the court.

Inside the Stats - St. Mary's Gaels

  • Record: 4-0
  • VI Ranking: -
  • PS/G: 74.2 (165th)
  • PA/G: 60.2 (59th)
  • ORtg: 107.2 (119th)
  • DRtg: 87 (80th)

Inside the Stats - Notre Dame Fighting Irish

  • Record: 2-0
  • VI Ranking: -
  • PS/G: 69 (238th)
  • PA/G: 56.5 (28th)
  • ORtg: 106.2 (137th)
  • DRtg: 86.9 (78th)

Key Players to Watch

  • SMC: Dan Fotu - SR (13.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg)
  • SMC: Logan Johnson - SR (11.5 ppg, 4 rpg)
  • ND: Paul Atkinson - SR (17.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg)
  • ND: Dane Goodwin - SR (15 ppg, 7.5 rpg)

St. Mary's Gaels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Conclusion

Staying away from a straight bet on the spread or money line, the UNDER on the total is the best way to wager on this game. Each of these teams have players that can score some points. However, each one’s early strength this season has been its play on defense. Look for that to continue in what could be a grinder of a game.

This will be the first matchup between these two teams. St. Mary’s has gone 7-3 SU over its last 10 games with a 3-7 record ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of those 10 games. Notre Dame has gone an even 5-5 SU in its previous 10 games dating back to last season. It is just 2-8 ATS during that run with the total evenly split at 5-5.

St. Mary's Gaels vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Trends

  • St. Mary's has failed to cover the spread in seven of its last 10 games.
  • St. Mary's has gone UNDER the point total in seven of its last 10 games.

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