St. Mary’s Gaels vs. Utah State Aggies Picks, Predictions, Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

6 minute read

Dec. 2, 2021

Dave Schwab
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The featured college basketball matchup this Thursday night on CBS Sports Network pits the WCC’s Saint Mary’s Gaels against the Mountain West’s Utah State Aggies. Game time from Dee Glen Smith Spectrum in Logan, Utah is set for 9 p.m. ET.

Score Prediction

St. Mary's 71, Utah State 68

Best Bets

Saint Mary's ML (+115)

St. Mary's Gaels vs. Utah State Aggies Predictions

The Gaels are off to an impressive 7-1 straight-up start behind some solid play on both ends of the court. Playing on the road, this will be a good test in what should remain a tight matchup all night long.

Utah State has only lost once in its first seven games and that was in its season opener on Nov. 9. Bringing a SU six-game winning streak into Thursday night’s contest, the Aggies already have a trio of victories in tight matchups.

These two teams matchup against one another very well. My lean is towards St. Mary’s with a SU victory on the road. While Utah State has showed excellent form, I still believe the Gaels are the better all-around team.

St. Mary's Gaels vs. Utah State Aggies Betting Odds

Odds Provided by DraftKings - Subject to Change

• Saint Mary's +115
• Utah State -135
• Saint Mary's +1.5 (-110)
• Utah State -1.5 (-110)
• Over 128.5 (-110)
• Under 128.5 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

St. Mary's Gaels vs. Utah State Aggies Betting Resources

• Matchup: WCC vs. Mountain West
• Date: Thursday, December 2, 2021
• Venue: Dee Glen Smith Specrtrum
• Location: Logan, Utah
• TV-Time: CBBSN - 9:00 p.m. ET

• Injury Report
• Wooden Award Odds
• Conference Futures Market
• Power Rankings

St. Mary's Gaels Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 7-1
• ATS: 5-3
• O/U: 2-6

Earlier this season, I cashed a winner on the UNDER in St. Mary’s game against Notre Dame. The Gaels beat the Irish 62-59 in another closely matched contest. A 62-50 upset over Oregon is another big plus on the early resume. They are 3-1 against the spread in their last four games.

Through eight games, the Gaels have demonstrated some solid scoring depth with five players averaging at least nine points per game. Forward Dan Fotu has led the way with 14.5 PPG while shooting 65.2 from the field and 81.8% from the free throw line. Forward Kyle Brown is pulling down 7.1 rebounds a game and guard Tommy Kuhse leads the team in assists (3.6). St. Mary’s is scoring an average of 67.9 points a game while shooting 46.3% from the field and 35.4% from three-point range. The Gaels are averaging 34.1 rebounds a game with almost eight rebounds a game on the offensive boards.

One issue is the team’s 65.5% conversion rate from the foul line. St. Mary’s has also struggled with consistency from three-point range. The strong suit on this team have been on defense. The Gaels are allowing an average of just 57.6 PPG.

Utah State Aggies Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 6-1
• ATS: 5-1
• O/U: 5-1

One of the biggest wins during Utah State’s current six-game winning streak was an 85-74 upset over Richmond as a 6.5-point underdog. The Aggies also beat both New Mexico State and Oklahoma closing as 4.5-point underdogs. They have covered the closing spread in their last five games. The 73-70 upset over the Sooners was in the championship game of this season’s Myrtle Beach Tournament.

Forward Justin Bean has had the hottest hand with 22.6 PPG while shooting 67.8% from the field. He also leads the team in rebounds with 12.9 a game. Bean is 10-for-17 from three-point range. Forward Brandon Horvath is the Aggies’ second-leading scorer with 14 PPG. He has connected on 52.2% of his shots this season.

Utah State gets the clear edge in scoring with 81.7 PPG. However, its has allowed an average of 68.1 points on defense. The Aggies are shooting 49.2% from the field and 37.6% from beyond the three-point line.

They also have the edge from the free throw line with a 78.9% conversion rate. Utah State matches up well under the boards with 38.9 rebounds a game. This includes 9.7 rebounds a game on offense.

St. Mary's has gone UNDER the point total in six of its last eight games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - St. Mary's Gaels

• Record: 7-1
• VI Ranking: 41
• PS/G: 67.9 (259th)
• PA/G: 57.6 (23rd)
• ORtg: 103.4 (163rd)
• DRtg: 87.8 (60th)

Inside the Stats - Utah State Aggies

• Record: 6-1
• VI Ranking: 44
• PS/G: 81.7 (43rd)
• PA/G: 68.1 (173rd)
• ORtg: 115.6 (25th)
• DRtg: 96.4 (181st)

Key Players to Watch

• SMC: Dan Fotu - F (14.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg)
• SMC: Tommy Kuhse - G (10.9 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.6 apg)
• UTST: Justin Bean - F (22.6 ppg, 12.9 rpg)
• UTST: Brandon Horvath - F (14 ppg, 4 rpg)

St. Mary's Gaels vs. Utah State Aggies Betting Conclusion

On paper, Utah State has the edge in a number of different categories. The Aggies are also battle-tested with three SU upsets on the year. Yet, I like a few of the aspects of this matchup that St. Mary’s brings into this game. Most noticeably, team depth and a shutdown defense.

Using ESPN’s power ranking index, the slight edge in this matchup goes towards Utah State. The fact the Aggies are playing this game at home is another plus. That being said, I am still taking the Gaels SU on the money line in Thursday night’s matchup. I see St. Mary’s defense dictating the pace of play to help neutralize Bean as the Aggies’ main scoring threat.

These two teams do have a recent history against one another. They met two seasons ago with St. Mary’s winning 81-73 as a 3.5-point home favorite. In six previous meetings total, the Gaels are 4-2 both SU and ATS with the total going OVER in five of the six games.

St. Mary's Gaels vs. Utah State Aggies Betting Trends

• Utah State has gone OVER the point total in five of its last six games.
• Utah State has covered the spread in five of its last six games.
• Saint Mary's has gone UNDER the point total in six of its last eight games.

VegasInsider Staff

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