Last Updated Dec 22, 2021, 10:37 AM

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Purdue Boilermakers Picks, Predictions, Odds

Dec. 3, 2021
Dave Schwab
VI Betting Expert

Friday night’s featured matchup on the Big Ten Network sends the Iowa Hawkeyes to Mackey Arena to face the No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers in the conference opener for both teams. Tip-off for this Big Ten clash is set for 9 p.m. ET.

Score Prediction

Purdue 89, Iowa 86

Best Bets

Over 159 (-110) at DraftKings

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Purdue Boilermakers Predictions

Iowa has a tall task in opening its Big Ten season against the Boilermakers. However, I think the Hawkeyes will be up to the task. With a perfect 7-0 straight-up start to the season, a road upset on Friday night would vault them deep into the national rankings.

While I do believe this game will be closer than expected, Purdue has earned its lofty ranking in the national polls. Quality win against both North Carolina and Villanova highlight the Boilermakers’ impressive 7-0 SU start.

The one thing that is obvious about each of these teams is the ability to light-up the scoreboard. Early in the season, these conference foes are two of the highest scoring teams in the country. While the oddsmakers have taken that into consideration with the posted total line, I am still betting the final tally goes OVER that number.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Odds

Odds Provided by DraftKings - Subject to Change

  • Purdue -11.5 (-110)
  • Iowa +11.5 (-110)
  • Over 159 (-110)
  • Under 159 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Big 10
  • Date: Friday, December 3, 2021
  • Venue: Mackey Arena
  • Location: West Lafayette, Indiana
  • TV-Time: BTN - 9:00 p.m. ET

Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-0
  • ATS: 5-2
  • O/U: 6-1

Iowa would move closer to cracking the Top 25 even with a loss on Friday night as long as it can keep this game close. The strength of schedule is rather low through the first six games, but Monday’s 75-74 road upset over Virginia as a two-point underdog caught some attention.

The Hawkeyes are 5-2 against the spread. Yet, the betting trend that I am focusing on the most is the total going OVER in six of those first seven games. Iowa is averaging 94.0 points per game while holding its opponents to just 66.7 points on defense.

Forward Keegan Murray has been a force with 24.6 points and 8.9 rebounds a game. His twin brother Kris is second on the team in scoring with 11.7 PPG. He is pulling down an average of six rebounds as part of Iowa’s team average of 40 boards a game.

The Hawkeyes are shooting an impressive 50.4% from the field. That number drops to 39.6% from three point range. Second chance rebounds are also a strong suit with an average of 12.7 on the offense end of the court.

Purdue Boilermakers Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-0
  • ATS: 6-1
  • O/U: 5-2

The Boilermakers have set the early pace as the best team in the Big Ten heading into conference play. Iowa will present a decent challenge to confirm that standing. Coming off Tuesday’s 93-65 romp over Florida State as an 11.5-point favorite, Purdue improved to 6-1 ATS.

Behind a scoring average of 92.4 PPG, the total has gone OVER in five of the team’s first seven games. Defensively, the Boilermakers are holding opposing teams to 64.1 PPG in almost a mirror image of Iowa’s early numbers in each of these scoring categories.

Balance is the best way to describe Purdue’s ability to score all those points. Center Zach Edey (16.9 points) leads a group of five Boilermakers averaging at least 10 PPG. Guard Jaden Ivey (15.4 points) is shooting 52% from the field and 43.3 % from the three-point line as another major impact player.

Forward Trevion Williams' 7.4 rebounds is the most when it comes to Purdue’s 42.6 season average. This includes a team’s average of 12.3 offensive rebounds a game. Williams is also the fourth-leading scorer with 12.3 PPG.

The Boilermakers are shooting a blazing 54.5% from the field and 44.2% from beyond the three- point line. Guard Sasha Stefanovic has had the hottest hand from three-point range by going 22-for-47. He is the team’s third-highest scorer with 12.9 PPG.

Inside the Stats - Iowa Hawkeyes

  • Record: 7-0
  • VI Ranking: 21
  • PS/G: 94 (1st)
  • PA/G: 66.7 (144th)
  • ORtg: 130.6 (2nd)
  • DRtg: 92.7 (112th)

Inside the Stats - Purdue Boilermakers

  • Record: 7-0
  • VI Ranking: 2
  • PS/G: 92.4 (2nd)
  • PA/G: 64.1 (96th)
  • ORtg: 132.9 (1st)
  • DRtg: 92.2 (109th)

Key Players to Watch

  • IOWA: Keegan Murray - F (24.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg)
  • IOWA: Kris Murray - F (11.7 ppg, 6 rpg)
  • PUR: Zach Edey - C (16.9 ppg, 7.1 rpg)
  • PUR: Jaden Ivey - G (15.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 3.9 apg)

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Conclusion

This should be a great season opener between two of the best teams in the Big Ten this season. While Purdue gets the early nod as the highest ranked program, it will know it has been in a battle by the time this game is over.

I would easily consider betting Iowa ATS in this matchup, but the higher value play is the OVER on the total line. The early trends support this pick and I see both teams lighting up the scoreboard in Friday’s game.

Head-to-head, Purdue has a slight 6-4 edge over the last 10 meetings both SU and ATS to highlight just how close these two teams have matched up in recent years. The total has gone OVER or ended as a PUSH in six of the last eight meetings.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Purdue Boilermakers Betting Trends

  • Iowa has won 10 straight games when playing at night.
  • Purdue has won the second half in nine straight games.
  • Iowa has won the second half in four of its last five games when facing Purdue.
  • Purdue has won the first half in four of its last five games when facing Iowa.
  • Purdue has won four of its last five games when facing Iowa.

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