Last Updated Dec 22, 2021, 10:36 AM

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Ole Miss Rebels Picks, Predictions, Odds

Dec. 15, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert

The Middle Tennessee Raiders (8-2) of Conference USA heads down south to meet the Ole Miss Rebels (6-3) of the SEC on Wednesday night at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion in Oxford, Miss. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m., and the game can be viewed on ESPN+/SEC+.

Score Prediction

Ole Miss 67, Middle Tennessee 63

Best Bets

MTSU +11.5 (-110) at Caesars

Under 133.5 (-110) at DraftKings

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Ole Miss Rebels Predictions

Middle Tennessee has taken care of business more often than not through the first 10 games this season. There is no shame is losses on the road to Stephen F. Austin and Murray State, two teams expected to be near the top of their respective conferences. MTSU also has registered solid wins over Winthrop and Mercer, while sweeping an in-state home-and-home with UT Martin, too.

Ole Miss hopes its game Wednesday at home goes much better than its last time out, also against a Conference USA team. The Rebels were spanked at State Farm Arena in Atlanta by a 71-48 score against Western Kentucky, a game which Ole Miss was favored by 5.5 points. That loss snapped a three-game win streak. One thing has been super consistent for the Rebels, and that's their performance on totals. The UNDER has connected in six straight games after a 3-0 OVER run to start the season.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Odds

  • MTSU +360
  • Ole Miss -500
  • MTSU +11.5 (-110)
  • Ole Miss -11.5 (-110)
  • Over 133.5 (-110)
  • Under 133.5 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Resources

  • Matchup: CUSA vs. SEC
  • Date: Wednesday, December 15, 2021
  • Venue: The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss
  • Location: Oxford, Mississippi
  • TV-Time: ESPN+ - 7:30 p.m. ET

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-2
  • ATS: 7-1
  • O/U: 5-3

MTSU has started to pop up on the spreadsheets of bettors because of an impressive 7-1 ATS record in eight games with a spread this season. That lone non-cover came in an 87-74 loss at Stephen F. Austin as 10-point underdogs. The Blue Raiders offense has been humming recently, going for 82 or more points in four of the past five outings, and MTSU has covered in five consecutive games since that loss to the Lumberjacks on Nov. 19.

In the most recent win at UT Martin, the Blue Raiders definitely weren't perfect, but they were good enough. They hit 44% (24-of-54) from the field, and 9-of-20 (45%) from downtown. The concerning stat was it's 73% (27-of-37) number from the free-throw line. They could be a little better there, and will need to be in close games against better opponents. The Blue Raiders also turned the ball over 14 times, and that simply will not do against Power 5 conference opponents, even mid-tier ones like Ole Miss.

Ole Miss Rebels Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 6-3
  • ATS: 4-5
  • O/U: 3-6

Ole Miss had a big-time power outage against Western Kentucky. It managed a season-low 48 points, and they hit just 17-of-62 (27%) from the field, including 7-of-27 (26%) from behind the 3-point line. The good news is that the Rebels managed to turn it over just eight times. This Ole Miss team doesn't put many points on the board anyway. When they're on top of their shot, they still go for just 70.4 PPG. But when they're bad, they're REALLY bad.

The Rebels aren't terribly deep on offense, but they have to feel good about facing the Blue Raiders. Ole Miss won last season's meeting in Murfreesboro by a 70-51 score, and the Rebels are 3-0 SU/ATS in the past three meetings since a 19-point win by the Blue Raiders at MTSU on Dec. 9, 2017. The UNDER has cashed in six of the past seven meetings in this series dating back to Dec. 21, 2011.

Inside the Stats - Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

  • Record: 8-2
  • VI Ranking: 114
  • PS/G: 80.1 (46th)
  • PA/G: 65.1 (106th)
  • ORtg: 110.3 (63rd)
  • DRtg: 89.7 (62nd)

Inside the Stats - Ole Miss Rebels

  • Record: 6-3
  • VI Ranking: 78
  • PS/G: 70.4 (215th)
  • PA/G: 62.9 (71st)
  • ORtg: 99.8 (231st)
  • DRtg: 89.1 (57th)

Key Players to Watch

  • MTST: Josh Jefferson - G (12.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.2 APG)
  • MTST: Eli Lawrence - G (13.3 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.0 APG)
  • MISS: Nysier Brooks - C (7.9 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 0.9 BPG, 55.1 FG%)
  • MISS: Jarkel Joiner - G (15.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.3 SPG)

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Conclusion

I am not quite saying Middle Tennessee is going to go down to Oxford and win this one outright, but Ole Miss has no business laying double digits to a team after getting dusted by 23 points against a similar team from the same league. The Blue Raiders have been money against the line so far this season, going 7-1 ATS, and they're going to keep this game within single digits. An outright win by the Blue Raiders wouldn't be shocking, either, but it's not worth playing.

This Blue Raiders team isn't quite back to the explosive level from 2016-17, when they made a little noise in the NCAA Tournament. But they have revenge on their minds after getting dusted by the Rebels at home last season, and Ole Miss is one of the weaker SEC teams. They could easily be had in Oxford on Wednesday night in a lower-scoring game.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Ole Miss Rebels Betting Trends

  • MTSU is 5-0 ATS across the past five games overall.
  • MTSU is 4-0 ATS across the past four road games.
  • Ole Miss is 6-1 ATS in the past seven at home against teams with a winning road mark.
  • The OVER is 5-1 in the past six road games for MTSU.
  • The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven games overall for MTSU.
  • The UNDER is 6-0 in the past six games overall for Ole Miss.
  • The UNDER is 5-0 in the past five home games for Ole Miss.
  • The favorite has cashed in the past four meetings in this series.

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