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College Basketball

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears Picks, Predictions, Odds

Kevin Rogers
Kevin Rogers Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read
Jan. 4, 2022
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Oklahoma Sooners (11-2, 1-0 Big 12) travel to meet the Baylor Bears (13-0, 1-0) at the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas on Tuesday. Tip-off is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN2.

Score Prediction

Baylor 75, Oklahoma 66

Best Bets

Oklahoma +12.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Over 137.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears Predictions

The Sooners head into this one looking to keep their Big 12 conference record unblemished, but it's a tall order facing the top-ranked team in the nation in their pad. OU eased by Kansas State by a 71-69 in Norman on New Year's Day, but it didn't come close to covering the eight-point number as the OVER connected.

Oklahoma shot 40%, or 23-of-57, from the field in the win over K-State, and it will have to be much more crisp if it hopes to slay the No. 1 team in the land. The good news is that OU was 37%, or 10-of-27, from downtown. The bad news is that the Sooners outrebounded the Wildcats just 35-31, while turning it over 13 times to just 10 times for the visitors. Elijah Harkless was an efficient 7-of-12 against the Wildcats, going for 21 points with seven rebounds, one of five players to go for double digits in points. He was also 4-of-4 from behind the 3-point arc.

The last time we saw Baylor was also on New Year's Day in Ames, as they took down Iowa State in a nice road test, 77-72. However, after failing to cover against Northwestern State, Baylor has is now 0-2 ATS in the past two games, the first time with consecutive non-covers in the regular season since Feb. 23-27 last season.

The Bears were an efficient 50% from the floor, going 30-of-60, while hitting 41%, or 7-of-17. The bad news is that Baylor turned it over a season-high 18 times, a number they'll need to work done. Of course, a lot has to do with Iowa State's defensive effort, too.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears Betting Odds

  • Oklahoma +550
  • Baylor -800
  • Oklahoma +12.5 (-110)
  • Baylor -12.5 (-110)
  • Over 137.5 (-110)
  • Under 137.5 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Big 12
  • Date: Tuesday, January 4, 2022
  • Venue: Ferrell Center
  • Location: Waco, Texas
  • TV-Time: ESPN2 - 7:00 p.m. ET

Oklahoma Sooners Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 11-2
  • ATS: 6-7
  • O/U: 8-5

Oklahoma enters on a four-game win streak, going for 70 or more points in each of the outings since a 66-62 loss at home in overtime against Butler on Dec. 7. The Sooners have failed to cover in each of the past two games, but the good news they haven't failed to cover in three straight or more since last season, going 0-5 ATS in the final five games of the regular season from Feb. 20-March 4, 2021.

Leading scorer Tanner Groves missed Saturday's game as he was in the protocol, along with Bijan Cortes and Jacob Groves, and that trio is uncertain for Tuesday.

The Sooners enter just 7-15 ATS across the past 22 games overall dating back to last season, including that late-season ATS collapse down the stretch. They're also just 2-6 ATS across the past eight true road games, not including neutral-floor battles. The good news is that the Sooners seem to be able to bounce back after failing to cover, going 5-2 ATS in the previous seven following an ATS loss.

For totals, the UNDER has cashed in six consecutive games against teams with a winning overall record. However, the OVER is 5-2 in their past seven on the road against teams with a winning home mark.

Baylor Bears Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 13-0
  • ATS: 8-4-1
  • O/U: 8-5

These teams met on Jan. 6 last season, also in Waco, with the Bears posting an impressive 76-61 win as 11.5-point favorites as the UNDER cashed. Baylor has owned this series lately, winning six in a row, while going 7-2-1 ATS across the past 10 in the series. The UNDER has cashed in six straight meetings, too, while going 9-1 in the past 10 in the series.

If the UNDER comes in like it has been in this series, it would slap the brakes on a 4-0 OVER run for the Bears dating back to its most recent UNDER against Villanova on Dec. 12. Baylor has scored 77 or more points in each of the past four, while going for 75 or more points in all but two of its games so far this season.

Baylor is 13-4-1 ATS in the past 18 games overall dating back to last season, while going 6-1 ATS in the past seven at the Ferrell Center, while going 5-0 ATS in the past five at home against teams with a winning road mark. The Bears are 35-16 ATS in the past 51 against teams with a winning record, too.

For totals, the OVER is also 16-5 in the past 21 games at home, although the UNDER is 6-0 in the past six against teams with a winning overall mark.


(AP)

Inside the Stats - Oklahoma Sooners

  • Record: 11-2
  • VI Ranking:
  • PS/G: 74.5 (132nd)
  • PA/G: 60.1 (28th)
  • ORtg: 107.8 (87th)
  • DRtg: 87.0 (27th)

Inside the Stats - Baylor Bears

  • Record: 13-0
  • VI Ranking: 1
  • PS/G: 83.2 (14th)
  • PA/G: 58.0 (10th)
  • ORtg: 116.8 (11th)
  • DRtg: 81.4 (5th)

Key Players to Watch

  • OU: Umoja Gibson - G (12.6 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.5 APG, 92.9 FT%)
  • OU: Tanner Groves - F (14.4 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.0 APG, 40.5 3P%)
  • BAY: James Akinjo - G (13.0 PPG, 6.1 APG, 2.3 RPG, 2.2 SPG)
  • BAY: L.J. Cryer - G (13.5 PPG, 1.9 APG, 1.7 APG, 46.8 3P%)

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears Betting Conclusion

The top-ranked Bears were challenged hard by the ranked Cyclones in Ames, as Baylor was given all it could handle. It passed the test, winning in a hostile environment by five points, but failing to cover. That's OK. They won, and passed another big test. They'll get another one here, as Oklahoma is no slouch. The fact the Bears are favored by double digits seems a little much. The Sooners have had some difficulty scoring consistently at the offensive end, but they can lock it down on defense when need be.

I think the top-ranked Bears keep their record unblemished, but this is going to be a single-digit deficit with the OVER just coming in as the result of some free throws in the final minute. That's all assuming that Groves, the team's leading scorer, is out of the COVID protocol and ready to play. If Groves sits, then Baylor has the chance to run Oklahoma out of the building. Harkless cannot do it all himself. Before finalizing a play on Oklahoma, make sure Groves is cleared to play.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears Betting Trends

  • Oklahoma is 7-15 ATS in the past 22 games overall.
  • Oklahoma is 2-6 ATS in the past eight road games.
  • Baylor is 13-4-1 ATS in the past 18 games overall.
  • Baylor is 6-1 ATS in the past seven home games.
  • Baylor is 35-16 ATS in the past 51 vs. winning teams.
  • The UNDER is 6-0 in Oklahoma's past six against winning teams.
  • The OVER is 4-0 in the past four games overall for Baylor.
  • The OVER is 16-5 in the past 21 home games for Baylor.
  • The UNDER is 6-0 in Baylor's past six against winning teams.
  • The road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings.

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Kevin Rogers

Kevin Rogers

Kevin has been handicapping professionally since 2007 at VegasInsider before shifting to ScoresAndOdds. He focuses on MLB, NFL, college football, NBA, college basketball, and NHL and mainly uses trends, systems, and situations as his top handicapping angles. More from Kevin Rogers
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