Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines Picks, Predictions, Odds

Jan. 8, 2022
Dave Schwab
VI Betting Expert
VegasInsider.com

The big showdown in the Big Ten this Saturday afternoon pits the No. 10 Michigan State Spartans on the road against the rival Michigan Wolverines. Tipoff from Crisler Center in Ann Arbor is slated for 2:30 p.m. (ET) and the game will be broadcast nationally on FOX.

Score Prediction

Michigan State 76, Michigan 69

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Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines Predictions

The Spartans bring a straight-up eight-game winning streak into Saturday’s showdown which includes a perfect 4-0 start in Big Ten play. While they beat Nebraska on Wednesday night by a comfortable 12-point margin at home, that did not cover the closing 15-point spread. At 13-2 SU on the year, the only two losses were against Kansas and Baylor.

Michigan continues to struggle with just one SU win in its last four games. This includes Tuesday’s nine-point road loss to Rutgers as a 3.5-point favorite. The Wolverines are now 1-2 SU in Big Ten play with a road win against Nebraska and a stunning 10-point loss at home to Minnesota as heavy 13.5-point favorites.

The home team in this heated rivalry has won the last six meetings SU. Yet, Michigan State’s current playing form far outweighs its opponent at this point in time. This should still be a great battle for much of the game, but I have the Spartans pulling away down the stretch to cash a winner both SU and against the spread.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Odds

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Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Resources

  • Matchup: Big 10
  • Date: Saturday, January 8, 2022
  • Venue: Crisler Center
  • Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan
  • TV-Time: FOX - 2:30 p.m. ET

Michigan State Spartans Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 13-2
  • ATS: 9-6
  • O/U: 7-7-1

During this current SU winning streak, Michigan State has been able to cover in five of the eight games. This includes road wins against Minnesota and Northwestern as a favorite. The total stayed UNDER 149 points in the Spartans’ 79-67 win against Nebraska after going OVER in their previous five games.

Freshman guard Max Christie (10.4 points) stepped up his game the last time out with a career- high 21 points. He is one of four players averaging at least 10 points per game. Forward Gabe Brown continues to lead the way with 14.5 points a game. Forward Marcus Bingham Jr. is next on the list with 10.5 points while leading the team in rebounds with 7.8 a game.

With a deep lineup of scorers, the Spartans are averaging 75.8 PPG. They are

shooting 46.5% from the field and 39.3% from three-point range. Brown has been the most reliable outside shooter overall. He has connected on 39.8% of his team-high 93 three-point attempts.

Michigan State has also been solid under the boards with an average of 40.9 rebounds a game. This average includes 11.3 rebounds a game on offense. The Spartans are holding opposing teams to 65.5 PPG at the other end of the court.

Michigan Wolverines Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-6
  • ATS: 5-8
  • O/U: 6-7

The Wolverines have been falling short of expectations all season long with six SU losses closing as favorites. They are 7-6 SU overall and just 5-8 ATS. They have failed to cover in three of their last four games. The total has gone OVER in five of Michigan’s last six matchups.

One of the biggest issues with this team has been a depleted lineup. In Tuesday’s loss to Rutgers, Michigan was missing five players from its bench. That has put even more pressure on players such as center Hunter Dickerson and guard Eli Brooks, who have played in all 13 games.

Dickerson leads the way in points (16.1) and rebounds (8.8). Brooks is averaging 12.9 PPG and shooting 43.2% from the field and 36.9% from three-point range. Forward Caleb Houstan is third in scoring with 9.5 points and guard DeVante’ Jones leads in assists with 3.8 a game.

The Wolverines are averaging 72.8 PPG while shooting 47.1% from the field and 34% from outside the three point line. They are making 68% of their shots from the free throw line and pulling down 38.5 rebounds a game. Defensively, Michigan has a points-allowed average of 66.8.


Michigan State has covered the spread in three straight road games. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Michigan State Spartans

  • Record: 13-2
  • VI Ranking: 12
  • PS/G: 75.8 (99th)
  • PA/G: 65.5 (106th)
  • ORtg: 107.3 (94th)
  • DRtg: 92.7 (85th)

Inside the Stats - Michigan Wolverines

  • Record: 7-6
  • VI Ranking: 62
  • PS/G: 72.8 (171st)
  • PA/G: 66.8 (140th)
  • ORtg: 106.2 (114th)
  • DRtg: 97.5 (177th)

Key Players to Watch

  • MSU: Gabe Brown - F (14.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg)
  • MSU: Marcus Bingham - F (10.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg)
  • MICH: Hunter Dickinson - C (16.1 ppg, 8.7 rpg)
  • MICH: Eli Brooks - G (12.9 ppg)

Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Conclusion

It is hard to bet against the home team in this classic Big Ten rivalry, but Michigan is reeling right now and Michigan State appears to be getting stronger as the season wears on.

According to a comparison of ESPN’s power index in this matchup, the Wolverines have a 58% chance to win on Saturday, but that is just stats on paper. Look for the Spartans to take full advantage of the current situation to walk away a winner both SU and ATS. There is a reason why this team is ranked No. 10 and Michigan is not even in the national rankings anymore.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Trends

  • Michigan State has covered the spread in three straight road games.
  • Michigan has failed to cover the spread in four of its last six home games.
  • Michigan has failed to cover the spread in two straight games.