Last Updated Feb 12, 2022, 12:57 PM

Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears Predictions, Picks, Odds

Saturday’s college basketball betting action kicks things off with a big Texas-sized showdown in the Big 12 between the No. 20 Texas Longhorns and the No. 10 Baylor Bears. The 12 p.m. (ET) tip from Ferrell Center in Waco will be broadcast nationally on ESPN2.

SCORE PREDICTION

Baylor 66, Texas 63

BEST BETS

Under 129.5 (-110) at DraftKings

TEXAS LONGHORNS VS. BAYLOR BEARS PREDICTIONS

Texas is riding high coming off Monday’s three-point thrilling upset over Kansas as a 1.5-point underdog on the road. At 7-4 straight-up in Big 12 play overall, the Longhorns have now won four of their last five conference games. This will be the first of two meetings in the regular season against the in-state rival Bears. A win on Saturday would really tighten up the standings for the regular season title.

Coming off an embarrassing 24-point loss to Kansas on Feb. 5 as 2.5-point road underdogs, the Bears stayed on the road to beat Kansas State on Wednesday night by 15 points as 6.5-point favorites. They are now 8-3 SU in Big 12 play and a half game in back of Kansas for the lead in the conference standings. The other two losses in Big 12 play came against Texas Tech and Oklahoma State at home in mid-January.

The Longhorns are playing well and more than capable of beating Baylor SU on the road. However, it would be hard to see the Bears lose another game at home as favorites. What I do see in Saturday’s matchup is more of a defensive-minded effort from each of these teams. This one could be too close to call betting the spread, but I have a high level of confidence that the total stays UNDER the current betting line.

TEXAS LONGHORNS VS. BAYLOR BEARS BETTING ODDS

  • Texas +195
  • Baylor -240 
  • Texas -5.5 (-110)
  • Baylor +5.5 (-110)
  • Over 129.5 (-110)
  • Under 129.5 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

TEXAS LONGHORNS VS. BAYLOR BEARS BETTING RESOURCES

  • Matchup: Big 12
  • Date: Saturday, February 12, 2022
  • Venue: Ferrell Center
  • Location: Waco, Texas
  • TV-Time: ESPN2 - 12:00 p.m. ET

TEXAS LONGHORNS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 18-6
  • ATS: 11-13
  • O/U: 10-14

Even with Monday’s big upset, Texas is still just 3-5 against the spread in its last eight games. This includes a 77-64 road loss to Texas Tech as a four-point underdog on Feb. 1. The total went OVER 132 points against Kansas and it has now gone OVER in five of the Longhorns’ last eight games.

Forward Timmy Allen hit the go-ahead jumper on Monday night and guard Marcus Carr sealed things up with a steal and some clutch free throws in the 79-76 victory. Both of these players have been key contributors to the team all season long. They are scoring a combined 22.8 points per game with Allen leading in rebounds (6.6) and Carr leading in assists (3.5).

Guards’ Andrew Jones (10.0 points) and Courtney Ramey (9.7 points) round out the top four scorers with Texas averaging 68.7 PPG. Jones is shooting 41.8% from the field and Ramey has connected on 37.1% of his 105 attempts from three-point range.

The Longhorns’ field-goal percentage this season stands at 45.4 and they are converting on 32.6% of their shots outside the three-point line. Texas is shooting 75.9% from the free throw line. Rebounds have not been one of this team’s strongest stats with 33.7 a game. However, this has been one of the toughest defenses to score on with a points-allowed average of just 55.8 PPG.

BAYLOR BEARS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 20-4
  • ATS: 13-10-1
  • O/U: 12-11-1

Going back to that SU loss to Texas tech on Jan. 11, Baylor has gone just 4-5 ATS over their last nine games. This stretch includes a 1-3 record ATS at home. The total stayed UNDER against both Kansas and Kansas State in the last two outings and it has now stayed UNDER in four of the team’s last six games.

Forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua had the hot hand the other night with 21 points while going 8-for-9 from the field. This helped to pick up the scoring slack with guard LJ Cryer still out of the lineup with a foot injury. He remains listed as questionable for Saturday’s game.

Guards’ James Akinjo (13.0 points) and Adam Flagler (12.7 point) are next on the list for scoring after Cryer’s team-high 13.9-point scoring average. Akinjo is shooting 39.8% from the field and he leads the team in both assists (5.6) and steals (2.2). Flagler has connected on 36.9% of his team-high 130 three-point attempts.

The Bears have averaged 77.8 points a game this season while shooting 47.2% from the field and 35.9% from outside the three point line. They are pulling down 37.5 rebounds and holding teams to 62.2 PPG.

Texas is 1-10 SU in their last 11 matchups against Baylor. (AP)

INSIDE THE STATS - TEXAS LONGHORNS

  • Record: 18-6
  • VI Ranking: 21
  • PS/G: 68.7 (246th)
  • PA/G: 55.8 (1st)
  • ORtg: 106.8 (95th)
  • DRtg: 86.8 (4th)

INSIDE THE STATS - BAYLOR BEARS

  • Record: 20-4
  • VI Ranking: 11
  • PS/G: 77.8 (38th)
  • PA/G: 62.2 (25th)
  • ORtg: 111.8 (28th)
  • DRtg: 89.4 (15th)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • TEX: Timmy Allen - F (11.8 PPG, 6.6 REB, 2.8 REB)
  • TEX: Marcus Carr - G (11 PPG, 2.2 REB, 3.5 AST)
  • BAY: Adam Flagler - G (12.7 PPG, 2.2 REB, 3.3 AST)
  • BAY: James Akinjo - G (13 PPG, 2.4 REB, 5.6 AST)

TEXAS LONGHORNS VS. BAYLOR BEARS BETTING CONCLUSION

Baylor has dominated this series in recent years with nine SU victories in the last 10 meetings while going 7-3 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in two of the last three games between these two in-state foes. The Longhorns’ hard-nosed defensive play should keep things close while also keeping the total UNDER the current line.

TEXAS LONGHORNS VS. BAYLOR BEARS BETTING TRENDS

  • Texas is 5-1 SU in their last six games.
  • Baylor is 6-2 ATS in their last eight matchups against Texas.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last nine Baylor' games.
  • Texas is 1-10 SU in their last 11 matchups against Baylor.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the last nine matchups between Texas and Baylor.
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