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College Basketball

Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan State Spartans Predictions, Picks, Odds

Daniel Dobish
Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

The Illinois Fighting Illini (18-7, 11-4 Big Ten) travel to meet the Michigan State Spartans (18-7, 9-5) in a Big Ten conference matchup at Breslin Center in East Lansing, Mich. on Saturday. Tip-off is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN.

SCORE PREDICTION

Michigan State 69, Illinois 67

BEST BETS

Michigan State -110 ML at Atlantis

Under 139.5 (-110) at WynnBet

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI VS. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS PREDICTIONS

Illinois is looking for the bounce-back after suffering a 70-59 loss at Rutgers on Wednesday, failing to cover as a four-point favorite as the UNDER connected. It's the third time in the past seven games Illinois has scored 59 or fewer points, which is inexplicable considering it has one of the best offensive weapons in the country in Kofi Cockburn.

For Michigan State, it has revenge on its mind after a 56-55 loss at Illinois back on Jan. 25, although the Spartans did cover as a two-point underdog. The 56 points allowed to Illinois was the lowest total of the season for the Illini, although they did end up winning. Michigan State has dropped three of the past four games overall, while going 1-4 ATS across the past five outings. Sparty needs to turn it around immediately.

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI VS. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS BETTING ODDS

  • Illinois -110
  • Michigan State -110
  • Illinois +1.5 (-110)
  • Michigan State PK (-110)
  • Over 139.5 (-110)
  • Under 139.5 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI VS. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS BETTING RESOURCES

  • Matchup: Big 10
  • Date: Saturday, February 19, 2022
  • Venue: Breslin Center
  • Location: East Lansing, Michigan
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 12:00 p.m. ET

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 18-7
  • ATS: 11-14
  • O/U: 14-10-1

The Fighting Illini are still just a half-game off the pace for first place in the Big Ten, tied with Wisconsin at 11-4, behind Purdue. They're also one game clear of Ohio State, although the Buckeyes have two games in hand.

Illinois heads into this one with just two covers in the past nine games overall, while going 1-5 ATS in the past six games on the road. It's also 2-5 ATS in the past seven against teams with a winning overall record, too.

For totals, the UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven games overall, with the low-scoring run starting Jan. 25 in the 56-55 win over Michigan State on Jan. 25. The UNDER is also 18-8 in the previous 26 for Illinois when facing a team with a winning overall record, while going 4-1 in the past five following an ATS loss.

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 18-7
  • ATS: 13-11-1
  • O/U: 12-12-1

Michigan State is looking to get untracked after a disappointing 62-58 loss at Penn State. The 58 points tied the second-lowest offensive output of the season, with the 55 scored against Illinois on Jan. 25 as the low point.

The Spartans are just 1-4 ATS across the past five games overall, while going 2-5 ATS in the past seven games at home, and 1-4 ATS in the past five at home against a team with a winning road record. The Spartans are also 5-1 ATS in the past six following a SU loss.

For totals, the OVER is 3-1-1 in the past five following a SU loss, but the UNDER is 7-2 in the past nine against teams with a winning overall record, while going 5-2-1 in the past eight at home against clubs with a winning road mark.


Illinois has covered just one of its past six games on the road. (AP)

INSIDE THE STATS - ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI

  • Record: 18-7
  • PS/G: 75.9 (68th)
  • PA/G: 66.4 (104th)
  • ORtg: 109.6 (42nd)
  • DRtg: 95.9 (88th)

INSIDE THE STATS - MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

  • Record: 18-7
  • PS/G: 72.7 (147th)
  • PA/G: 66.1 (92nd)
  • ORtg: 106.0 (112th)
  • DRtg: 96.4 (101st)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • ILL: Kofi Cockburn - C (21.4 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 60.5 FG%)
  • ILL: Alfonso Plummer - G (14.9 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 1.1 APG, 89.7 FT%)
  • MSU: Gabe Brown - F (12.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 1.0 APG, 91.1 FT%)
  • MSU: Malik Hall - F (10.2 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.2 APG, 55.9 FG%, 52.1 3P%)

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI VS. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS BETTING CONCLUSION

Head-to-head, this has been a close series. Yes, Michigan State has won three of the past four meetings overall, but Illinois won last time out on Jan. 25 by a 56-55 score. Sparty did cover, though, and Michigan State is 7-3 ATS across the past 10 meetings. The UNDER has hit in three of the past four in this series, and defense will likely be the rule again here.

Confidence isn't terribly high for either of these sides, as far as bettors are concerned. Illinois was dusted at Rutgers last time out, and Michigan State fell to lowly Penn State. The difference here will be venue, and it will be Sparty exactly a little revenge in another super close matchup with a low score.

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI VS. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS BETTING TRENDS

  • Illinois is 2-7 ATS in the past nine games overall.
  • Illinois is 1-5 ATS in the past six road games.
  • Illinois is 2-6 ATS in the past eight as a favorite.
  • Illinois is 1-4 ATS in the past five as a road favorite.
  • Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in the past five games overall.
  • Michigan State is 2-5 ATS in the past seven home games.
  • The UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven games for Illinois.
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the past six as a favorite for Illinois.
  • The UNDER is 18-8 in the past 26 vs. winning teams for Illinois.
  • The UNDER is 7-2 in the past nine vs. winning teams for Michigan State.
  • The UNDER is 17-5 in the past 22 as a home underdog for Michigan State.
  • The UNDER is 8-2 in the past 10 as an underdog for Michigan State.
  • The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
  • The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.

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Daniel Dobish

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish
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