Xavier Musketeers vs. Providence Friars Predictions, Picks, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

The Xavier Musketeers (17-9, 7-8 Big East) travel to meet the Providence Friars (22-3, 12-2) at the Dunkin' Donuts Arena in Providence, R.I. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on CBS Sports Network.

Score Prediction

Providence 70 Xavier 66

Best Bets

• Providence -110 ML
• Under 139.5 (-110)

Xavier Musketeers vs. Providence Friars Predictions

The Musketeers have dropped two in a row, and four of the past five games overall. Xavier is has also failed to cover two in a row, and four of the past six outings. Xavier suffered 72-61 loss at Connecticut last time out on Saturday, and the 61 points were the team's lowest since being outscored 64-60 on Jan. 12 at home against Villanova. Xavier are looking for some revenge after a 65-62 loss at Cintas Center in Cincinnati on Jan. 26 as an 8.5-point favorite as the UNDER connected. That game was Xavier's fifth consecutive non-cover in a stretch from Jan. 12-26.

The Friars narrowly avoided a second consecutive loss last time out with a 71-70 overtime victory at Butler on Sunday. Providence suffered an 89-84 loss at home last Tuesday against Villanova as four-point underdogs as the OVER cashed. Providence still has won nine of the past 10 games overall, but they're 0-3 ATS in the previous three outings. The OVER has cashed, as Providence's defense has struggled a little, allowing 70 or more points in each of the non-covers.

Xavier Musketeers vs. Providence Friars Betting Odds

• Xavier +105
• Providence -110
• Xavier +1.5 (-110)
• Providence -1 (-106)
• Over 138.5 (-115)
• Under 139.5 (-110)

Updated on 04/26/2024

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Xavier Musketeers Betting Analysis

• SU 17-9
• ATS 13-13
• OU 11-14-1

The Musketeers started out the season with a 9-2 ATS mark in the first 11 games of the season through Dec. 15, but they haven't been as good against the number since conference play started. Xavier is 3-11 ATS in the past 14 games since Dec. 18, including non-covers in the past two games, and a SU loss as 8.5-point favorites in the first meeting against Providence at home on Jan. 26 as the UNDER cashed.

The Musketeers have really struggled against winning teams, going 3-8 ATS in the past 11 games against teams with a winning record. They're also 2-6 ATS in the past eight games following a non-cover, too.

As far as totals are concerned, the UNDER is 4-1 in the past five games on the road, while going 4-1 in those games against a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is also 6-1 in the past seven games following a non-cover, too.

Providence Friars Betting Analysis

• SU 22-3
• ATS 13-13
• OU 11-14-1

The Friars were favored by a bucket, and ended up winning by just one point on the road against Butler in overtime on Sunday. It was a rare situation where a team failed to cover as a 1.5- or 2-point favorite, while hitting on the money line. That's how it's gone for Providence lately, going 0-3 ATS in the past three games. The Friars topped DePaul 79-73 in overtime on Feb. 12 as nine-point favorites, while losing by five points at home to Villanova on Feb. 15 as four-point 'dogs. Near-misses lately have been the rule for the first-place Friars.

Providence is 0-5 ATS in the past five games at home, too, although it is still 13-5 ATS in the past 18 games against teams with a straight-up record, and 10-3 ATS in the past 13 games after a non-cover.

For the total, the OVER is 4-1 in the past five games overall, while going 5-1 in the past six at the DDC in Providence. The OVER is also 5-1 in the past six games after a non-cover.

The Friars have a big injury concern, as G Aljami Durham (hernia) missed the Butler game, and he is a question mark to play. He has reportedly been playing with this injury for a while, and it appears he'll have to continue doing so for the remainder of the season.

Inside the Stats – Xavier Musketeers

Record: 17-9
PS/G: 72.7 (146th)
PA/G: 66.2 (94th)
ORtg: 104.9 (130th)
DRtg: 95.6 (75th)

Inside the Stats – Providence Friars

Record: 22-3
PS/G: 71.4 (169th)
PA/G: 65.8 (77th)
ORtg: 106.6 (93rd)
DRtg: 98.2 (147th)

Key Players to Watch

XAV: Jack Nunge - F (13.4 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 53.2 FG%)
XAV: Paul Scruggs - G (12.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.5 SPG)
PROV: Noah Horchler - F (10.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.8 APG, 46.0 FG%)
PROV: Nate Watson - C (14.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 0.8 BPG, 56.4 FG%)

Xavier Musketeers vs. Providence Friars Conclusion

The Friars have ended up winning three of the past four games in this series, including Jan. 26 in Cincinnati. The Friars have also covered four straight meetings, and eight of the past 10 overall in this series. The OVER is 3-1 in the past four meetings, too, although the UNDER cashed in the first battle between these teams this season.

Look for Providence to get back on track at home after losing last time out on its home hardwood. Xavier has been struggling lately, and it doesn't help that G Nate Johnson (knee) has been sidelined since Feb. 11. Johnson is the team's fourth-leading scorer with 9.8 PPG, and he leads the team with a 39.4% mark from behind the arc. His absence doesn't help, and you can expect the Friars to get the victory at home despite injury issues of their own with Durham.

Xavier Musketeers vs. Providence Friars Betting Trends

Xavier is 3-9 ATS in the past 12 games overall.
Xavier is 3-8 ATS in the past 11 vs. winning teams.
Xavier is 2-6 ATS in the past eight after a non-cover.
Providence is 0-5 ATS in the past five home games.
Providence is 13-5 ATS in the past 18 vs. winning teams.
Providence is 10-3 ATS in the past 13 after a non-cover.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five games for Xavier.
The UNDER is 4-1 in the past five road games for Xavier vs. teams with a winning home record.
The UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven following a non-cover for Xavier.
The OVER is 4-1 in the past five games for Providence.
The OVER is 5-1 in the past six home games for Providence.
The OVER is 5-1 in the past six for Providence after a non-cover.
Providence is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings.
The underdog is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings.

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish