Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan State Spartans Predictions, Picks, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

The Purdue Boilermakers (24-4, 13-4 Big Ten) travel to meet the Michigan State Spartans (18-9, 9-7) at Breslin Center in East Lansing, Mich. on Saturday. Tip-off is scheduled for noon ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Purdue 75 Michigan State 69

Best Bet

Purdue -145 ML
Purdue -3 (-110)
Under 147.5 (-118)

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS VS. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS PREDICTIONS

The Boilermakers are coming off an 84-72 victory against Rutgers last time out, pushing against the number for the second consecutive game at most shops. The 84 points tied the most scored since Feb. 2. Purdue shot 53% (26-of-49) from the field, including 36% (8-of-22) from behind the 3-point line, while going an impressive 83% (24-of-29) from the free-throw line. The Boilermakers turned it over just seven times, too, while outrebounding the Spartans by a 24-to-22 clip.

The Spartans are in freefall, losing three consecutive games, and five of the past six outings. Perhaps none of the losses were more embarrassing than last time out at Iowa, as Sparty fell 86-60 as six-point underdogs in Iowa City. Michigan State managed to hit just 35% (25-of-71) from the field, while connecting at 31% (8-of-26) from downtown, and Michigan State managed to get to the free-throw line just four times, hitting two of the attempts.

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS VS. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS BETTING ODDS

• Purdue -145
• Michigan State +126
• Purdue -3 (-110)
• Michigan State +3.5 (-115)
• Over 146 (-110)
• Under 147.5 (-118)

More Odds | Futures Odds

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS VS. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS BETTING RESOURCES

• Matchup: Big Ten
• Date: Saturday, February 26, 2022
• Venue: Breslin Center
• Location: East Lansing, Mich.
• TV-Time: ESPN - 12:00 p.m. ET

• Injury Report
• Wooden Award Odds
• Conference Futures Market
• Power Rankings

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 24-4
• ATS: 13-13-2
• O/U: 17-11

The Boilermakers have pushed against the number at most shops in the previous two games. They're 0-2-2 ATS in the past four games, last covering in an 84-68 rout of Illinois on Feb. 8 as 5.5-point favorites. After a stunning 82-58 loss at Michigan on Feb. 10, the Boilermakers have rebounded with victories over Maryland, Northwestern and Rutgers. The OVER in Sunday's win over Rutgers snapped an 3-0 UNDER skid.

More on the totals, the OVER has hit in 11 of the past 16 games overall, while going 10-3 in the past 13 games following a straight-up win. The UNDER has cashed in five of the past six against winning teams, however.

In this series, Purdue has won four consecutive games while covering each of the past four meetings. Overall, Purdue is 7-1-1 ATS in the previous nine meetings, while the UNDER has cashed in five of the past six outings in this series.

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 18-9
• ATS: 13-13-1
• O/U: 13-13-1

Michigan State is in a nosedive, going 0-3 SU/ATS in the previous three outings, while cashing in just one of the past seven games overall. All of the numbers are bad for the Spartans, going 2-6 ATS in the past eight games at home, while going 1-5 ATS in the past six outings against teams with a winning overall record. The Spartans are also 0-4 ATS in the past four at home against teams with a winning road record, too.

For totals, the OVER is 7-3-1 in the past 11 games at home, while going 3-1-1 in the past five at home against teams with a winning road mark. The OVER has also cashed in four consecutive appearances on a Saturday, for whatever that's worth. The UNDER is 5-1 in the past six games against teams with a winning overall record.

INSIDE THE STATS - PURDUE BOILERMAKERS

• Record: 24-4
• PS/G: 82.2 (6th)
• PA/G: 68.8 (174th)
• ORtg: 121.0 (1st)
• DRtg: 101.3 (218th)

INSIDE THE STATS - MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

• Record: 18-9
• PS/G: 72.3 (154th)
• PA/G: 67.3 (129th)
• ORtg: 105.3 (125th)
• DRtg: 98.1 (140th)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

• PUR: Zach Edey - C (14.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.2 BPG, 36.9 3P%)
• PUR: Jaden Ivey - G (17.3 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.0 SPG)
• MSU: Gabe Brown - F (11.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.1 APG, 91.1 FT%)
• MSU: Malik Hall - F (10.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.2 APG, 54.8 FG%, 50.9 3P%)

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS VS. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS BETTING CONCLUSION

The Boilermakers are sitting on top of the Big Ten, and playing good basketball since a loss at Michigan. But it was a bad loss at Michigan, and showed that this team can be picked off on any given day, pardon the cliche. Still, that day isn't going to be Saturday. Michigan State is playing terrible basketball across the past week or two, looking like an NCAA Tournament shoe-in about a month ago, to looking like a bubble team or a play-in team.

The Spartans are 1-5 SU across the past six games, and 1-6 ATS in the previous seven outings, and it's hard to envision a team which last lost to lowly Penn State, as well as setbacks to Iowa and Rutgers by 21 or more points, topping the first-place team in the conference. Purdue being favored by just three points is a gift to bettors, and you should hop all over that. Purdue is healthy, it's playing heads and tails better than Michigan State, and betting wins generally do not get easier than this.

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS VS. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS BETTING TRENDS

• Purdue is 0-2-2 ATS in the past four games overall.
• Michigan State is 1-6 ATS in the past seven games overall.
• Michigan State is 2-6 ATS in the past eight home games.
• Michigan State is 1-5 ATS in the past six vs. winning teams.
• The OVER is 11-5 in the past 16 games overall for Purdue.
• The OVER is 10-3 in the past 13 following a SU win for Purdue.
• The UNDER is 5-1 in the past six vs. winning teams for Purdue.
• The OVER is 7-3-1 in the past 11 home games for Michigan State.
• The OVER is 3-1-1 in the past five home games vs. teams with a winning road record for Michigan State.
• The UNDER is 5-1 in the past six vs. winning teams for Michigan State.
• The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven meetings.
• The favorite is 5-2-1 ATS in the past eight meetings.

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish