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College Basketball

SMU Mustangs vs. Houston Cougars Picks, Predictions, Odds

Dave Schwab
Dave Schwab Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

Sunday’s doubleheader of college basketball betting action on ESPN tips off with an AAC showdown between the SMU Mustangs and the No. 14 Houston Cougars. Game time from Fertitta Center in Houston is slated for 12:30 p.m. (ET).

Score Prediction

Houston 74, SMU 62

Best Bets

Houston -10.5 (-110)

SMU MUSTANGS VS. HOUSTON COUGARS PREDICTIONS

With Wednesday’s 14-point win over Tulsa, the Mustangs remain just a game in back of Houston for this season’s AAC regular season title. They are 11-3 straight-up in conference play with three more games left on the schedule. SMU holds the edge in this title race with a two-point upset over the Cougars on Feb. 4 closing as a seven-point underdog at home.

Houston has won its last three games SU with Wednesday’s 14-point victory against Tulane closing as a 9.5-point road favorite. Other than the earlier loss to SMU, the only other blemish in the team’s SU 12-2 AAC record came against Memphis on Feb. 12 in a rare two-game skid. The Cougars have climbed to No. 14 in the national rankings behind a SU 23-4 record overall.

While these two teams remain neck-and-neck in the conference standings, it is hard to see SMU pulling off the season sweep. Houston has much bigger aspirations of just winning the AAC title as its regular season winds down. Tapping into the Cougars’ high motivation to even the score, betting them to win and cover on Sunday becomes a high-value wager.

SMU MUSTANGS VS. HOUSTON COUGARS BETTING ODDS

  • SMU +10.5 (-110)
  • Houston -10.5 (-110)
  • Over 136.5 (-120)
  • Under 136.5 (+100)

More Odds | Futures Odds

SMU MUSTANGS VS. HOUSTON COUGARS BETTING RESOURCES

  • Matchup: AAC
  • Date: Sunday, February 27, 2022
  • Venue: Fertitta Center
  • Location: Houston, Texas
  • TV-Time: ESPN - 12:30 p.m. ET

SMU MUSTANGS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 20-6
  • ATS: 14-12
  • O/U: 13-13

The Mustangs’ three SU losses in conference play came against Cincinnati, Wichita State and Temple on the road. With Wednesday’s cover as 10.5 point home favorites in that 75-61 romp over Tulsa, SMU is now 4-1 against the spread in its last five games. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of its last 13 games.

Forward Marcus Weathers led the way the last time out with 14 points and 13 rebounds. He is the team’s second-leading scorer with 12.6 points per game while pulling down a team-high 7.3 rebounds. Guard Kendrick Davis has had the hottest hand all season long with 19.3 PPG. He is shooting 44.7% from the field and 37% from three-point range. With a team-high 4.7 assists, he also the Mustangs’ top free throw shooter at 86.3%.

Overall, SMU is scoring an average of 74.9 PPG and shooting 45.3% from the field. This drops to 37% from outside the three point line and jumps to 74.3% from the foul line. The Mustangs are pulling down 38.2 rebounds with 9.5 a game on offence. Defensively, they are holding opposing teams to 66.9 PPG.

HOUSTON COUGARS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 23-4
  • ATS: 16-11
  • O/U: 14-13

Houston has been a bit shaky covering the closing number lately at 3-4 ATS over its last seven contests. This includes those SU losses to SMU and Memphis as a healthy favorite. Sneaking by Wichita State 76-74 as seven-point road favorites last Sunday was another loss for the betting public. The more solid bet lately has been on the total line with five of the last seven games going OVER.

Overcoming the loss of both Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark with season-ending injuries, the Cougars continue to show their resilience as one of the best teams in the nation. Guard Kyler Edwards has stepped up his game to lead the way in scoring with 13.8 PPG. He is also pulling down 5.9 rebounds a game.

Forward Fabian White Jr. and center Josh Carlton have also been key performers this season with a combined 23.7 points and 12.3 rebounds a game. Guard Jamal Shead leads the team in assists with 5.6 while averaging 9.6 PPG. The Cougars are scoring 76.3 points a game and shooting 46.7% from the field.

Led by Edwards, they are converting on 34.6% of their three-point attempts. They matchup well under the boards against SMU with an average of 39.5 rebounds and this defense is holding its opponents to a much more solid 59 PPG.

INSIDE THE STATS - SMU MUSTANGS

  • Record: 20-6
  • PS/G: 74.9 (83rd)
  • PA/G: 66.9 (116th)
  • ORtg: 106.9 (91st)
  • DRtg: 95.4 (75th)

INSIDE THE STATS - HOUSTON COUGARS

  • Record: 23-4
  • PS/G: 76.3 (53rd)
  • PA/G: 59 (8th)
  • ORtg: 114.4 (10th)
  • DRtg: 88.4 (5th)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • SMU: Kendrick Davis - G (19.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 4.7 apg)
  • SMU: Marcus Weathers - F (12.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg)
  • UH: Kyler Edwards - G (13.8 ppg, 5.9 rpg)
  • UH: Fabian White - F (12 ppg, 5.7 rpg)
Houston has gone OVER the point total in five of its last seven games. (AP)

SMU MUSTANGS VS. HOUSTON COUGARS BETTING CONCLUSION

Recent betting trends can impact future results. However, in the case of Sunday’s matchup they need to be discounted a bit. That earlier loss to SMU is still fresh in the minds of every player in Houston’s starting lineup. The Cougars also need this win to help bolster their seeding in any postseason tournament they play in.

The combination of current form, motivation and revenge is just too much to ignore in a game that should not be close as the clock winds down in the second half.

SMU MUSTANGS VS. HOUSTON COUGARS BETTING TRENDS

  • Houston has gone OVER the point total in five of its last seven games.
  • Houston has failed to cover the spread in three of its last five games.
  • SMU has covered the spread in four of its last five games.
  • SMU has gone UNDER the point total in three straight games.

College Basketball News

Dave Schwab

Dave Schwab

Dave Schwab has been covering the sports betting industry for the past 12 years as the main focus of his specialty marketing company for online content. This endeavor followed a previous career in the field of sales and marketing in the wholesaling sector.Most of his weekly pieces focus on the rapidly expanding legal US sports betting industry. However, he still does extensive work covering betting angles that can provide a competitive edge to avid players. Dave believes that it is always a challenge to take past results and current form to try and correctly determine a future result. Sports brings out the unpredictability in what should be a fairly predictable outcome based on the stats, facts and recent trends in a particular matchup. More from Dave Schwab
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