Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns Predictions, Picks, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

The Baylor Bears (24-5, 12-4 Big 12) visit the Texas Longhorns (21-8, 10-6) at the Frank Erwin Center in Austin, Texas on Monday. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Baylor 72 Texas 65

Best Bet

Baylor -110 ML
Over 135.5 (-105)

BAYLOR BEARS VS. TEXAS LONGHORNS PREDICTIONS

The Bears are coming off of an impressive 80-70 win over Kansas last time out on Saturday, covering a three-point number as the OVER connected. Baylor held Kansas to 34%, while the Bears hit 48% (28-of-58) from the field, while going 81% (21-of-26) from the free-throw line. It also turned it over just eight times while drawing even in rebounds at 37-37. The only area the Bears could definitely use improvement would be 21% (3-of-14) from behind the 3-point line. Playing with five starters and two reserves, the Bears managed to have four players with 12 or more points, while Matthew Mayer pulled down 12 boards with a blocked shot.

The Longhorns edged West Virginia by an 82-81 margin in Morgantown, but they failed to cover for a third straight outing. Texas failed to cover a season-high four straight games Dec. 9-22 during the non-conference portion of the schedule. Texas will be looking for revenge after getting hammered at Baylor back on Feb. 12, 80-63. The Bears held the Longhorns to 33% (20-of-61) from the floor, while outrebounding Texas at a 41-to-26 clip in that rout.

BAYLOR BEARS VS. TEXAS LONGHORNS BETTING ODDS

• Baylor -110
• Texas -104
• Baylor -1 (-110)
• Texas +1.5 (-110)
• Over 135.5 (-105)
• Under 136 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

BAYLOR BEARS VS. TEXAS LONGHORNS BETTING RESOURCES

• Matchup: Big 12
• Date: Monday, February 28, 2022
• Venue: Frank Erwin Center
• Location: Austin, Texas
• TV-Time: ESPN - 9:00 p.m. ET

• Injury Report
• Wooden Award Odds
• Conference Futures Market
• Power Rankings

BAYLOR BEARS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 24-5
• ATS: 15-12-2
• O/U: 15-13-1

The Bears covered that most recent game against Kansas, it's first in four games dating back to the rout of the Longhorns in Waco on Feb. 12. It was the fifth consecutive victory for the Bears in this series against Texas, and the fourth straight cover. The OVER has cashed in each of the past two meetings, and five of the past seven in the series.

Baylor hits the road looking to turn things around against the number, as it is just 1-4 ATS in the past five games on the road. They are 3-1-1 ATS in the past five games against teams with a winning overall record, however, while going 13-4-1 ATS in the past 18 games following a cover.

For the totals, the OVER is 5-2 in the past seven games against teams with a winning overall record.

TEXAS LONGHORNS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 21-8
• ATS: 12-17
• O/U: 14-15

Texas has picked up two wins in a row, while failing to cover the past three games. The Longhorns have cashed in two of the past seven games at home, too, while going 4-12 ATS in the past 16 home games against teams with a winning record record. Texas is also 1-5 ATS in the past six games following a SU win.

For totals, the OVER is 5-1 in the past six games overall, while going 5-2 in the past seven games against a team with a winning overall record. The OVER is also 4-1 in the past five games following a SU win, while going 5-1 in the past six after a cover. The UNDER is 13-6 in the past 19 games at home, however.

INSIDE THE STATS - BAYLOR BEARS

• Record: 24-5
• PS/G: 77.2 (46th)
• PA/G: 63.3 (29th)
• ORtg: 111.1 (29th)
• DRtg: 91.1 (20th)

INSIDE THE STATS - TEXAS LONGHORNS

• Record: 21-8
• PS/G: 69.1 (236th)
• PA/G: 58.8 (5th)
• ORtg: 106.4 (102nd)
• DRtg: 90.6 (17th)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

• BAY: James Akinjo - G (12.9 PPG, 5.7 APG, 2.4 RPG, 2.0 SPG, 83.9 FT%)
• BAY: Adam Flagler - G (13.7 PPG, 3.1 APG, 2.5 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 39.1 3P%)
• TEX: Timmy Allen - F (12.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.2 SPG, 53.2 FG%)
• TEX: Marcus Carr - G (11.1 PPG, 3.2 APG, 2.1 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 32.1 3P%)

BAYLOR BEARS VS. TEXAS LONGHORNS BETTING CONCLUSION

The Longhorns are a rather mediocre 5-3 SU across the past eight games, while going 3-6 ATS across the past nine games overall. At this rate, the Longhorns might be on its way to an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament, but it's not likely to be a very long stay unless they start playing with a little more consistency. Texas has losses to Texas Tech (twice) and Baylor just this month, although recent wins over Kansas, TCU and Tennessee show that Texas is a team to be reckoned with. However, teams with such sporadic production do not go very deep into March.

The Bears squashed the Longhorns by 17 points in the first meeting, and there isn't a lot of confidence that the Longhorns will turn things around and pick up a win this time around. Baylor was No. 1 for a reason earlier this season, as this is a top-tier team. And even without L.J. Cryer (foot), while playing with a short bench, the Bears are better than the Longhorns by at least a handful of buckets. Playing the OVER is lightly is also a wise decision.

BAYLOR BEARS VS. TEXAS LONGHORNS BETTING TRENDS

• Baylor is 1-4 ATS in the past five road games.
• Baylor is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five vs. winning teams.
• Baylor is 13-4-1 ATS in the past 18 games after an ATS win.
• Texas is 1-4 ATS in the past five games overall.
• Texas is 2-5 ATS in the past seven home games.
• Texas is 1-5 ATS in the past six following a SU win.
• The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven vs. winning teams for Baylor.
• The OVER is 5-1 in the past six games overall for Texas.
• The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven vs. winning teams for Texas.
• The UNDER is 13-6 in the past 19 home games for Texas.
• The OVER is 4-1 in the past five following a SU win.
• The OVER is 5-1 in the past six following an ATS loss.
• The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings.
• The home team is 10-4 ATS in the past 14 meetings.

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish