Iowa State vs. Baylor Predictions, Picks, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

The Iowa State Cyclones (20-10, 7-10 Big 12) travel to meet the Baylor Bears (25-5, 13-4) at the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas on Saturday. Tip-off is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN2.

Score Prediction

Baylor 76 Iowa State 61

Best Bet

Baylor -12 (-110)
Over 132 (-108)

IOWA STATE CYCLONES VS. BAYLOR BEARS PREDICTIONS

Iowa State was awful in its most recent game on Wednesday, falling 53-36 as 4.5-point favorites against Oklahoma State. Needless to say, the only people who found this game to be entertaining were UNDER bettors, as their wager was never in doubt.

Iowa State shot just 28% (15-of-53) from the field, including 12% (2-of-17) from behind the 3-point line, and it even struggled at 40% (4-of-10) from the free-throw line. The Cyclones also turned it over 16 times while getting outrebounded at a 37-to-24 clip. Star Izaiah Brockington hit just 5-of-17 from the field, ending up with 13 points.

Baylor heads into Saturday's action tied with Kansas for the top spot in the Big 12 with one game remaining. By the time the Bears tip off, they will know what they need to do. A win will garner a piece of the Big 12 title if Kansas tops Texas earlier in the day, and the Bears can win the title outright with a victory and a Kansas loss, so they have huge stakes on Saturday.

IOWA STATE CYCLONES VS. BAYLOR BEARS BETTING ODDS

• Iowa State +600
• Baylor -833
• Iowa State +12 (-110)
• Baylor -12 (-110)
• Over 132 (-108)
• Under 132.5 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

IOWA STATE CYCLONES VS. BAYLOR BEARS BETTING RESOURCES

• Matchup: Big 12
• Date: Saturday, March 5, 2022
• Venue: Ferrell Center
• Location: Waco, Texas
• TV-Time: ESPN2 - 6:00 p.m. ET

• Injury Report
• Wooden Award Odds
• Conference Futures Market
• Power Rankings

IOWA STATE CYCLONES BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 20-10
• ATS: 16-14
• O/U: 14-16

The 36-point effort against Oklahoma State was easily a season low for Iowa State. It will be looking to bounce back, but a trip to Baylor is a difficult assignment. The Cyclones came up short in a 77-72 game against the Bears in Ames back on New Year's Day, but I-State was able to cover as a 7.5-point underdog as the OVER connected rather easily.

Iowa State has a history of bouncing back after a difficult shooting and scoring performance. The Cyclones are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six gams following a scoring performance of 50 or fewer points in the previous game.

For totals, the OVER is still 5-2 in the past seven games despite that ugly UNDER last time out. The OVER is also 16-7 in the past 23 games against teams with a winning overall record.

BAYLOR BEARS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 25-5
• ATS: 16-12-2
• O/U: 15-14-1

The Bears have won registered four consecutive victories since an 83-73 loss at Texas Tech as 1.5-point underdogs, going 2-1-1 ATS during the win streak. That includes a pair of cover in the past two games. The last time Baylor had three or more covers in a row was a 3-0 ATS run from Jan. 18-25.

Baylor is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five games at home, and it is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six games against teams with a winning overall record. Baylor is also 19-9-1 ATS in the past 29 games following a straight-up win, and 14-4-1 ATS in the past 19 following a cover.

In terms of totals, the OVER has cashed in 20 of the past 29 games at home, while going 18-7-1 in the past 26 games against teams with a winning overall mark.

INSIDE THE STATS - IOWA STATE CYCLONES

• Record: 20-10
• PS/G: 67.3 (274st)
• PA/G: 62.3 (21st)
• ORtg: 99.0 (257th)
• DRtg: 91.7 (22nd)

INSIDE THE STATS - BAYLOR BEARS

• Record: 25-5
• PS/G: 76.9 (48th)
• PA/G: 63.2 (31st)
• ORtg: 110.8 (31st)
• DRtg: 91.1 (19th)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

• IAST: Izaiah Brockington - G (17.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.3 SPG, 40.5 3P%)
• IAST: Tyrese Hunter - G (11.1 PPG, 4.7 APG, 3.4 RPG, 1.9 SPG)
• BAY: James Akinjo - G (13.1 PPG, 5.8 APG, 2.6 RPG, 2.0 SPG, 83.9 FT%)
• BAY: Adam Flagler - G (13.9 PPG, 4.0 APG, 2.4 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 40.5 3P%)

IOWA STATE CYCLONES VS. BAYLOR BEARS BETTING CONCLUSION

The Cyclones have been good enough at home this season, but they're sub-.500 on the road, winning just four of nine true road games this season. Inside the conference, Iowa State is 3-5 SU/4-4 ATS away from home.

The Bears have a ton to play for in this game, and you can expect them to be playing at a very high level. If Kansas tops Texas earlier in the day, which is fully expected, the Bears will be playing for a piece of the regular-season title. If KU loses, Baylor will be playing for the outright title and No. 1 seed in the Big 12 tournament. Either way, Baylor has a ton at stake, while Iowa State is coming off a 36-point performance. This one should be terribly close.

IOWA STATE CYCLONES VS. BAYLOR BEARS BETTING TRENDS

• Iowa State is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six games after scoring 50 or fewer points last time out.
• Baylor is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five home games.
• Baylor is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six vs. winning teams.
• The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven games for Iowa State.
• The OVER is 16-7 in the past 23 vs. winning teams for Iowa State.
• The OVER is 20-9 in the past 29 home games for Baylor.
• The OVER is 18-7-1 in the past 26 vs. winning teams for Baylor.
• The home team is 21-10 ATS in the past 31 meetings.

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish