USC Trojans vs. UCLA Bruins Picks, Predictions, Odds

The USC Trojans (25-5, 14-5 PAC-12) will travel to take on the UCLA Bruins (22-6, 14-5 PAC-12) in their final game of the regular season. Tipoff is scheduled for 10:00 PM ET at Pauley Pavilion in Los Angeles, California and can be viewed on ESPN.  

Score Prediction

UCLA 79, USC 71

Best Bet

UCLA -7.5 (-110)

USC TROJANS vs. UCLA BRUINS PREDICTIONS

The UCLA Bruins defeated Washington in their most recent game 77-66. The difference maker for UCLA in this one was controlling the glass with 40 total rebounds compared to USC’s 28. The Bruins have now won two straight and six of their last 10 games.  

The USC Trojans lost their most recent game to Arizona 91-71. The Trojans could not find their rhythm on offense, shooting 39.7% from the field, 22.2% from three, and had just nine assists throughout the game. On a positive note, USC had 40 rebounds with 19 of those coming on the offensive end. The trojans are now 8-2 in their last 10 games.

USC defeated UCLA 67-64 in their only matchup of the season. USC shot 43.6 FG%, 44.4 3PT%, and had 10 blocks. The Bruins struggled throughout the game, shooting 29.7 FG%, 31.3 3PT%, and had just nine assists. For this reason, I am backing UCLA in this matchup. The Bruins played very poorly on offense and still lost by just three points. Not to mention, UCLA will be at home where they have lost just one time this season. 

USC TROJANS vs. UCLA BRUINS BETTING ODDS

• USC +275
• UCLA -350
• USC +7.5 (-110)
• UCLA -7.5 (-110)
• Over 135.5 (-110)
• Under 135.5 (-110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

USC TROJANS vs. UCLA BRUINS BETTING RESOURCES

• Matchup: Pac-12
• Date: Saturday, March 5, 2022
• Venue: Pauley Pavilion
• Location: Los Angeles, California
• TV-Time: ESPN - 10:00 p.m. ET

• Injury Report
• Wooden Award Odds
• Conference Futures Market
• Power Rankings

USC TROJANS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 25-5
• ATS: 14-16
• O/U: 13-15-2

With a 14-16 ATS record, the Trojans have struggled to cover games throughout the season. They have been better when playing on the road, posting a 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS record. The total has gone under in 15 of USC’s 30 games this season. Going against this trend, the total has gone over in eight of the last 10 games when USC plays on the road against UCLA.  

The Trojans offense is led by junior forward Isaiah Mobley who is averaging 14.4 PPG, 8.5 RPG, and 3.2 APG. As a team, USC is averaging 73.4 PPG (133rd), 45.4 FG% (104th), 35.2 3PT% (100th), 14.4 APG (99th), and 40.7 RPG (19th). Senior guard Drew Peterson has also come up big for the Trojans, shooting 41% from beyond the arc and had 27 points and four assists in their first matchup against UCLA. Expect the Trojans to come out firing after shooting so poorly against Arizona.  

USC’s defense has allowed 70.9 PPG over their last 10 games. This is above their season average of allowing opponents 65.7 PPG (75th), 38.7 FG% (14th), and 33.7 3PT% (192nd). The Trojans have also averaged 4.6 BPG (40th), 5.5 SPG (281st), and scoring 10.6 PPG off of turnovers. In their first matchup with UCLA, USC controlled the paint with 10 blocks. I would expect a similar game plan for the Trojans in this one.

UCLA BRUINS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 22-6
• ATS: 15-12-1
• O/U: 13-14-1

UCLA has been profitable on the year with an ATS record of 15-12-1. The Bruins have been even better at home, posting a 13-1 SU and 9-4-1 ATS record. The total has gone under in 14 of UCLA’s 28 games played. In their last 10 games UCLA is 8-2 SU, 3-7 ATS, and had an O/U record of 5-4-1.  

Johnny Juzang has led the way for the Bruins this season, averaging 17 PPG, 4.7 RPG, and 1.8 APG. Bad news for UCLA fans, head Coach Mick Cronin stated that  Juzang is 50-50 as to whether or not he will play on Saturday. The Bruins do have multiple guys who can step up, including Jaime Jaquez Jr who had 30 points last game while Juzang was out. As a team, the Bruins average 76.8 PPG (50th), 44.9 FG% (129th), 35.4 3PT% (93rd), 14.2 APG (118th), and 37.6 RPG (88th).  

Mick Cronin has emphasized defense since his coaching days at Cincinnati and hasn’t missed a beat since he took over UCLA. On defense the Bruins allowed opponents 64.2 PPG (41st), 41.1 FG% (60th), 31.5 3PT% (72nd), while averaging 3.4 BPG (145th), and 7.1 SPG. (111th). Isaiah Mobley did not play in the first matchup, so UCLA will want to establish a presence down-low early to prevent him easy buckets.  

INSIDE THE STATS - USC TROJANS

• Record: 25-5
• PS/G: 73.4 (123rd)
• PA/G: 65.7 (76th)
• ORtg: 107.1 (82nd)
• DRtg: 95.8 (72nd)

INSIDE THE STATS - UCLA BRUINS

• Record: 22-6
• PS/G: 76.8 (50th)
• PA/G: 64.2 (40th)
• ORtg: 111.2 (28th)
• DRtg: 93 (34th)

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

• USC: Isaiah Mobley - F (14.4 ppg, 8.5 rpg)
• USC: Drew Peterson - G (12.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg)
• UCLA: Jaime Jaquez - G (12.8 ppg, 5.4 rpg)
• UCLA: Tyger Campbell - G (11.8 ppg, 4.3 apg)

USC TROJANS vs. UCLA BRUINS BETTING CONCLUSION

With Johnny Juzang’s status up in the air and Isiah Mobley good to go, it’s tough to back the Bruins here, but I do think it’s the play. The Bruins have been great at home this season and it is expected to be a sold-out crowd on senior night. As long as they can keep their emotions in check, I like UCLA to win plus cover.  

USC TROJANS vs. UCLA BRUINS BETTING TRENDS

• UCLA has covered the spread in two straight games.
• USC has covered the spread five of its last six games when playing as the underdog.
• UCLA has covered the spread in six of its last eight games.