Last Updated Jan 30, 2023, 9:00 PM

Baylor vs. Texas Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Big 12 is the toughest basketball conference in America with six out of the ten teams in this conference ranked in Ken Pomeroy's Top 20 teams at the end of January. Both the Baylor Bears and Texas Longhorns are among those teams, and these two Lone Star State rivals are also both national title contenders. They will square off at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN from the Moody Center in Austin, Texas on Monday, January 30, 2023.

Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Prediction

The Texas Longhorns have long dominated the Baylor Bears in most sports, including basketball. However, Baylor is currently in its most successful stretch during this rivalry. The Bears have beat the Longhorns in six straight games, and they are 12-1 in their last 13 games in this series. Texas is hoping to have a little more luck in the new Moody Center as compared to the old Frank Erwin Center, but Baylor will pull off the upset thanks to an elite offense and a superb capability to create second chances on the offensive glass.

Score Prediction: Baylor 78 Texas 76
Best Bet: Baylor +3.5

Baylor is 6-0 in its last six head-to-head meetings against Texas. (Getty)

Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Odds

Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Resources

Date: Monday, Jan. 30, 2023
TV-Time: ESPN, 9:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Moody Center
Location: Austin, Texas
Expert Picks

Big 12 Championship Odds

Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns Betting Stats

Baylor Bears
SU: 16-5
ATS: 10-10
O/U: 11-10
PPG: 78.8
OPPG: 69.1

Texas Longhorns
SU: 17-4
ATS: 8-13
O/U: 13-6
PPG: 80.1
OPPG: 67.5

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Baylor Bears Betting Analysis

Scott Drew and the Bears have turned things around since losing their first three games to start Big 12 play. Baylor has now won five straight conference games and defeated Arkansas over the weekend in the Big 12/SEC Challenge. Their defense isn't the best, but it hasn't needed to be great considering the offense is ranked second nationally according to Pomeroy's numbers.

The veteran leaders on Baylor are guards Adam Flagler and L.J. Cryer. Flagler and Cryer are two of the three members of this year's Baylor team that were on the national championship winning roster two years ago. Flagler is averaging 15.5 PPG and leads the team with 4.9 APG and is hitting a team-best 42.5% of his threes. As for Cryer, he is averaging 14.5 PPG and is the other solid perimeter shooter on Baylor, sinking 40.2% of his triples.

Freshman Keyonte George is the most talented player on the team and has the most legitimate pro prospects. George is a potential lottery pick, and he leads Baylor with 17.2 PPG. He isn't just a shooter though, posting 4.5 RPG and 3.2 APG, but he needs some fine tuning in certain areas. The youngster is turning the ball over almost three times per game, and he is shooting under 35% from downtown.

It's impressive that Baylor rebounds as well as it does considering the amount of time the team uses three or four guards. Jalen Bridges does a very good job on the offensive glass, and he gets a lot of put-backs while making 72% of his two-point field goals. Flo Thamba has made a mark too, even though Drew likes to have fresh legs and uses a nine-man rotation.

Texas relies heavily on Marcus Carr for its offensive game. (Getty)

Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis

Texas ranks 10th in adjusted offense according to Pomeroy, but the Longhorns heavily rely on Marcus Carr. The Minnesota transfer is by far the best player on the roster, pacing the team with 17.3 PPG, 4.2 APG, and 1.8 APG. Additionally, Carr is the best three-point shooter on the Longhorns, as he is making 40.3% of his treys.

No one else on the team can consistently make three-pointers. Texas ranks outside the top 200 in three-point percentage as a team, and guards Tyrese Hunter, Sir'Jabari Rice, and Arterio Morris are all making under 32% of their threes. Forwards Dylan Disu and Timmy Allen have little range, posting terrible numbers from beyond the arc, so this team has to win in the paint in order to beat good teams.

The Longhorns are a veteran team though. They have the seventh most experience of any team in the country, and that has helped them survive the Chris Beard fallout. Texas doesn't turn the ball over often, and the Longhorns are solid at the free throw line.

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