Baylor vs. TCU Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Big 12 continues to be absolutely brutal to its top teams. The depth of the conference will ensure that all of the teams that are selected for the NCAA Tournament are battle tested by the time the NCAA Tournament comes around, but it's going to be very hard for anyone to grab a No. 1 seed considering how much these teams beat up on each other. Currently, every team save Oklahoma and Texas Tech is in line to hear its name called on Selection Sunday per the most recent Bracketology, and seven programs are .500 or better in conference action. The Baylor Bears and TCU Horned Frogs are right in the thick of things, and they will meet for the second time this season on Saturday afternoon.

In the first meeting between Baylor and TCU, the Horned Frogs were able to go into Waco and escape with a one-point victory. Mike Miles led all scorers with 33 points as TCU overcame a substantial free throw disparity in the win. The rematch will see these teams meet at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena in Fort Worth, Texas on Saturday, February 11, 2023, at 4 p.m. on ESPN2.

Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Prediction

Although TCU won the first meeting between these Lone Star State rivals, Baylor is a small road favorite by the CBB betting odds in the rematch after TCU lost three of its last four games. Despite those recent woes, the Horned Frogs are the play in this game as they should get to the free throw line often at home against the Bears.

Score Prediction: TCU 78, Baylor 73
Best Bet: TCU +1 (-110)

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Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Odds

Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Resources

Date: Saturday, Feb. 11, 2023
TV-Time: ESPN2, 4:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Matchup
Expert Picks

Big 12 Tournament Odds

Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Stats

Baylor Bears
SU: 18-6
ATS: 12-11-1
O/U: 13-11
PPG: 79
OPPG: 69.2

TCU Horned Frogs
SU: 17-7
ATS: 13-10-1
O/U: 14-10
PPG: 76.6
OPPG: 66.6

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 04/25/2024

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Baylor Bears Betting Analysis

Since losing their first three Big 12 games, the Baylor Bears have won seven of their last eight games in conference play. That has Scott Drew thinking of his second national title in three seasons, and he has the best offense in the country according to Ken Pomeroy's metrics.

Baylor gets to the free throw line often and gets a lot of second chance shots. Three players lead this team with at least 14 PPG apiece, but there is significant depth that helps the Bears have fresh legs. Keyonte George is averaging 17.5 PPG as the leading scorer, and Adam Flagler and L.J. Cryer are the other two players averaging double digits in points. Flagler and Cryer are the two reliable three-point shooters on the team too.

In the frontcourt, the Bears will likely go with Flo Thamba and Jalen Bridges for most of the game. Bridges is averaging 9.8 PPG and 6.0 RPG, and he is Baylor's leading rebounder. Meanwhile, Thamba is the second leading rebounder, but he isn't much of a scoring threat.

TCU Horned Frogs Betting Analysis

This will be a solid contrast of styles as Jamie Dixon has always been a defensive-minded basketball coach. TCU has the 14th best defense in the country per Pomeroy, and the only thing the Horned Frogs have problems with is keeping teams off the glass. The good news here is that Baylor doesn't have a lot of size and plays a lot of four-guard lineups, so the Bears aren't as likely to take advantage of the situation.

Offensively, TCU prioritizes mid-range jumpers and scoring in the paint to a degree you don't usually see in 2023. The Horned Frogs are making 53.2% of their two-pointers, but they have been atrocious from downtown. They are making just 28.7% of their threes as a team, and Emanuel Miller is the lone bright spot in this regard.

Eddie Lampkin has been ruled out for this game, but Mike Miles may be able to make his return from a knee injury. Miles is averaging 18.1 PPG, and he carried TCU to a win over Baylor in their previous meeting. Miller is having a solid season in the low post as a consistent scoring threat, and Damion Baugh does a very good job distributing the ball.