North Carolina vs. N.C. State Picks, Predictions, Odds

The sporting world is turning its attention to the Tar Heel State this weekend. The NHL Stadium Series will be in Raleigh, North Carolina for the first time on Saturday when the Carolina Hurricanes host the Washington Capitals, and the biggest game on the college basketball schedule this Sunday will pit the North Carolina Tar Heels against the N.C. State Wolfpack.

North Carolina is reeling with four losses in its last five games, so the Tar Heels are desperate for a win over their proverbial "little brother".

We will see the North Carolina State Wolfpack host the North Carolina Tar Heels from PNC Arena in Raleigh, North Carolina on Sunday, February 19, 2023. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on ESPN.

UNC defeated N.C. State, 90-69 last month in Chapel Hill. (Getty)

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. N.C. State Wolfpack Betting Prediction

While NC State is 13-1 in PNC Arena this season, the Wolfpack have not played a robust home slate. Only four of the 14 opponents they have played at home are ranked in Ken Pomeroy's top 175 teams as the ACC is having a down year.

The Wolfpack lost at home to Pittsburgh and needed overtime to beat Miami, but they did hammer quality teams like Duke and Furman here. North Carolina is the second-best team that N.C. State has played at home so far, and the Tar Heels will be too much for the Wolfpack on Sunday afternoon.

Score Prediction: North Carolina 78, NC State 73
Best Bet: North Carolina +1.5 (-110)

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. N.C. State Wolfpack Betting Odds

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. N.C. State Wolfpack Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, Feb. 19, 2023
TV-Time: ESPN, 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: PNC Arena
Location: Raleigh, North Carolina
Expert Picks

ACC Tournament Odds

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. N.C. State Wolfpack Betting Stats

North Carolina Tar Heels
SU: 16-10
ATS: 8-17-1
O/U: 12-14
PPG: 78.2
OPPG: 72.5

N.C. State Wolfpack
SU: 20-7
ATS: 12-13-2
O/U: 13-13-1
PPG: 78.7
OPPG: 69.2

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 05/25/2024
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North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Analysis

Armando Bacot was incredible in the first meeting between these two teams four weeks ago. Bacot had one of his best games of the season with 23 points and 18 rebounds (with six offensive rebounds). He was the main reason that the Tar Heels outrebounded the Wolfpack by a margin of 42 to 27, and NC State only managed to grab three offensive rebounds. The Wolfpack have had a really tough time stopping the 6'11 big man in the low post as D.J. Burns doesn't have the athleticism and Ernest Ross doesn't have the size.

It would be stunning to see North Carolina win the free throw battle in the manner which it did in the first game between these rivals. The Tar Heels went to the free throw line a whopping 39 times a month ago, compared to just 12 free throws for the Wolfpack. Caleb Love and R.J. Davis combined to make 23 of 24 free throws for UNC, and that allowed Davis to lead all scorers with 26 points.

As always, the big problem with UNC has been its poor three-point shooting. The Tar Heels are making just 30.6% of their three-pointers this season, and they rank in the bottom 30 nationally in that regard. Davis is the best perimeter shooter, making 34.3% of his treys on the season, while Love and Leaky Black have really struggled from beyond the arc.

N.C. State owns a 6-1 home record in ACC action. (Getty)

N.C. State Wolfpack Betting Analysis

Terquavion Smith is a potential lottery pick. Smith is averaging 18.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG, and 4.6 APG, but he isn't a very efficient shooter. He is making just 37.9% of his field goals and 34.3% of his three-point attempts. Smith was largely held in check in the first meeting with UNC, and he will need to have 20+ points for the Wolfpack to win on Sunday afternoon.

Casey Morsell will be the best perimeter shooter on the floor. Morsell is averaging 12.8 PPG while making 43% of his threes on the season. He ranks in the top 80 nationally in three-point percentage, but he is coming off a 1-9 performance against Syracuse on Valentine's Day. The second-best perimeter shooter on N.C. State is Jarkel Joiner who is making just 34.6% of his treys.

The potential X-Factor in this game is Jack Clark. The 6'8 guard is N.C. State's leading rebounder and is averaging 9.2 PPG and 7.2 RPG on the season. Clark is fantastic with the ball in his hands, and he and Morsell ensure that the Wolfpack turn the ball over at one of the lowest rates in the country. The La Salle transfer recently returned from injury, and he was the best perimeter defender on the team before he was hurt.