Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Texas Longhorns are neck-and-neck with the Kansas Jayhawks in the Big 12 standings with three games left to play. These teams will square off in the regular season finale for both teams next Saturday, but both the Longhorns and Jayhawks will look to hold serve until that point in order to claim the conference title outright. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, their two games in the run-up to the showdown are much tougher than what the Jayhawks must face.

Kansas will be solid favorites by the college basketball betting odds at home against West Virginia and Texas Tech, but Texas must go on the road and face the Baylor Bears on Saturday night and TCU on Wednesday night.

On Saturday, February 25, 2023, the Baylor Bears will host the Texas Longhorns in their penultimate home game of the season. This game is scheduled to tip off at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN from the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas.

Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears Betting Prediction

In the first meeting between these in-state rivals, the Texas Longhorns held on to beat the Baylor Bears 76-71 in Austin. Timmy Allen and Sir'Jabari Rice combined to score 39 points for Texas, as the Longhorns were able to shoot pretty efficiently from the floor after Flo Thamba fouled out for the Bears. Defense has been a major issue for Baylor in Big 12 play, and the lack of quality depth in the frontcourt puts a lot of pressure on Thamba and Jalen Bridges. The return of Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua was supposed to help Baylor, but the Bears are still having trouble when it comes to figuring out ways to use him. Baylor hasn't lost a home game since falling in overtime to Kansas State on January 7, but Texas is the play here.

Score Prediction: Texas 78, Baylor 72
Best Bet: Texas +3 (-110)

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Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears Betting Odds

Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears Betting Resources

Date: Saturday, Feb. 25, 2023
TV-Time: ESPN, 2:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Ferrell Center
Location: Waco, Texas
Matchup
Expert Picks

Big 12 Tournament Odds

Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears Betting Stats

Texas Longhorns
SU: 22-6
ATS: 12-16
O/U: 16-12
PPG: 78
OPPG: 69.9

Baylor Bears
SU: 20-8
ATS: 14-14
O/U: 14-14
PPG: 79.4
OPPG: 68.4

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 04/24/2024

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Texas Longhorns Betting Analysis

It looked like Texas might be set for a downturn after head coach Chris Beard was fired on January 5 due to allegations of domestic violence. Beard helped lead the Longhorns to an 11-1 record in non-conference play, and their only loss came in overtime to Illinois on a neutral court. Texas gave up a school record 116 points at home to Kansas State two days before Beard was dismissed, and the fear was more of that performance would be in store. However, this team has rallied around interim coach Rodney Terry. Texas is 11-4 in Big 12 play and tied with Kansas for the top spot in the conference.

Texas' offense is ranked 12th nationally per Ken Pomeroy, and the Longhorns defense isn't that far behind at 30th in the country. Marcus Carr is playing very well and has finally developed his three-pointer, leading to him averaging 17.0 PPG while making 39.1% of his triples. Carr is tops on the team with 4.1 APG too, and he should be in line for All-Big 12 accolades in his senior season.

Fellow seniors Timmy Allen and Sir'Jabari Rice are having good seasons too. Allen is averaging 10.8 PPG and 5.4 RPG for the Longhorns, but he does not have three-point range. Meanwhile, Rice is the second-best perimeter shooter on the team, knocking down 37.7% of his attempts from beyond the arc.

Don't be surprised if Dylan Disu is on the court for a lot of minutes in this game. Texas played Disu for 29 minutes in its first meeting with Baylor, and he was a defensive menace despite scoring just five points.

Baylor Bears Betting Analysis

The Baylor Bears have the second-ranked offense in the country according to Pomeroy. Baylor does an excellent job getting offensive rebounds even though the Bears don't typically have a lot of big men on the floor, and they have two players that are lights out from beyond the arc in L.J. Cryer and Adam Flagler. Cryer is averaging 14.9 PPG and sinking 43.4% of his threes as he has been red hot lately. As for Flagler, he is averaging 15.6 PPG, but his three-point shooting has dipped to just 40%.

Freshman Keyonte George leads Baylor with 16.9 PPG, and he has had a hot hand in the Bears' two recent losses. George made 11 of his 20 three-point attempts in defeats at the hands of the Kansas schools. Turnovers have been a bit of an issue for the teenager lately though, and that's something to watch against Texas.

Baylor is allowing 69.9 PPG in Big 12 play. The only school that is giving up more points on average in conference action is West Virginia. Big 12 opponents are making 45.2% of their two-pointers against the Bears, as Scott Drew's team is really struggling at stopping opponents in the paint. They have yet to find something that works, and that makes Texas the pick.