San Diego State vs. Boise State Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Mountain West Conference could send as many as four teams to the NCAA Tournament. There are four teams with at least 22 wins that are 11-5 or better in MWC play, including the two teams that will meet in the penultimate regular season affair for both squads on Tuesday night.

The Boise State Broncos will host the San Diego State Aztecs in a very important game for the home team. A win against San Diego State or Utah State over the weekend should guarantee the Broncos a spot in the NCAA Tournament, while two losses casts some doubt over their bid.

On Tuesday, February 28, 2023, the Boise State Broncos will host the San Diego State Aztecs in their last home game of the regular season. This game will take place at ExtraMile Arena in Boise, Idaho at 9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos Betting Prediction

The San Diego State Aztecs crushed the Boise State Broncos in the first meeting between these teams four weeks ago. San Diego State doubled up Boise State and took a 43-21 lead into halftime, and the Aztecs cruised to an easy 20-point win from there.

The Broncos went just 2 of 18 from beyond the three-point line, and the only Boise State player with 10 points or more was Max Rice. They will need to present some kind of threat beyond the arc if they are going to win the rematch with San Diego State.

Best Bet: Under 134 (-110)
Score Prediction: Boise State 65, San Diego State 62

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos Betting Odds

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos Betting Resources

Date: Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2023
TV-Time: CBSSN, 9:00 p.m. ET
Venue: ExtraMile Arena
Location: Boise, Idaho
Matchup
Expert Picks

MWC Tournament Odds

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos Betting Stats

San Diego Aztecs
SU: 23-5
ATS: 12-13-2
O/U: 14-13
PPG: 73.6
OPPG: 64.9

Boise State Broncos
SU: 22-7
ATS: 14-12-2
O/U: 14-14
PPG: 72.3
OPPG: 63.1

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Analysis

Few teams in the country have a better defense than San Diego State. The Aztecs are ranked 13th in defensive efficiency per Ken Pomeroy, and they are excellent with their perimeter defense. Opposing teams are making just 29% of their threes against San Diego State, and the Aztecs force a decent amount of turnovers while boxing out on the glass very well. They do have some problems against opposing big men, as we saw in losses to Arizona and Saint Mary's.

None of the top three scorers for San Diego State are very efficient shooters. Matt Bradley is averaging 13.0 PPG, and he is the most effective of the trio, knocking down 37.2% of his threes. Darrion Trammell is averaging 10.2 PPG, but he is only making 36.5% of his field goals and 31.9% of his threes. Lamont Butler has the highest field goal percentage of the three at 41.7%, but that's nothing to trumpet.

San Diego State has three big men that are averaging at least 5.0 RPG, but they don't take a lot of shots as none of the three are averaging over 8.0 PPG. Nathan Mensah is a solid rebounder when he is on the court, but head coach Brian Dutcher wants to make sure he always has fresh legs available. That has led to him splitting time with Keshad Johnson and Jaedeon LeDee. It's hard to argue with the results considering San Diego State is 23-5 with an elite defense.

Boise State Broncos Betting Analysis

Boise State is very similar to San Diego State in that this is a defense-first team. The Broncos rank 11th in defensive efficiency according to Pomeroy, and they do everything well on defense but force turnovers. Opponents are making just 29.9% of threes and 47% of field goals against the Broncos, and we haven't seen many teams get second chances with offensive rebounds.

Offensively, the Broncos rely on Max Rice and Chibuzo Agbo to stretch the floor. Both Rice and Agbo are making more than 41% of their threes on the season, and they are the two best free throw shooters on Boise State to boot. Leading scorer Tyson Degenhart is averaging 14.3 PPG and is making 53.6% of his field goals, but he has been a mediocre shooter from distance.

One of the big concerns for Boise State is the lack of a deep bench. The Broncos essentially have a seven-man rotation, and the only player with real size is 6'10 center Lukas Milner. None of the starters are taller than 6'7, so Mensah could have a big game once again. He led all scorers with 17 points in the first meeting and went to the foul line 12 times as Boise State had no answer for his size and strength.