San Diego State vs. Alabama Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Alabama Crimson Tide are in an unfamiliar position. Alabama has long been known for its prowess on the football field, and the Crimson Tide are one of the favorites to win the national championship on an annual basis. However, the basketball team has long been seen as an afterthought.

Alabama has only made it past the Sweet Sixteen one time, and that was in 2004 when the Crimson Tide ended up making it to the Elite Eight. Now, the Crimson Tide are installed as the favorites to win the title per the college basketball futures odds, and it will be interesting to see how they react to the expectations. A loss to the San Diego State Aztecs would be a huge disappointment, but this is a young team with a coach that has never made it past the Sweet 16 in Nate Oats.

We should see a lot of Alabama Crimson Tide fans in attendance at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Kentucky when the Tide face the San Diego Aztecs in a Sweet 16 matchup for the right to play in the South Regional Final. This game will tip off at 6:30 p.m. ET on TBS.

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Prediction

This should be a relatively low-scoring game as San Diego State and Alabama both have top five defenses according to Ken Pomeroy's metrics. Alabama runs at a pretty fast pace and shoots a lot of threes so it might not be in the 60s, but that's exactly where San Diego State would love to play this game. The key for the Aztecs in this game is whether or not they can hold the Crimson Tide under 70 points. If Alabama scores in the 60s, than SDSU could pull off the upset. However, the Aztecs have only scored 68 points or more once in their past seven games.

Best Bet: Under 137 (-110)
Score Prediction: Alabama 69, San Diego State 64

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Odds

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Resources

Date: Friday, Mar. 24, 2023
TV-Time: TBS, 6:30 p.m. ET
Venue: KFC Yum! Center
Location: Louisville, Kentucky
Matchup
Expert Picks

San Diego State Aztecs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Stats

San Diego State Aztecs
SU: 29-6
ATS: 18-16
O/U: 14-20
PPG: 71.9
OPPG: 63.1

Alabama Crimson Tide
SU: 31-5
ATS: 20-15-1
O/U: 16-19-1
PPG: 82.3
OPPG: 68.2

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)
Points Per Game (PPG), Opponents Points Per Game (OPPG)

Updated on 06/02/2023

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San Diego Aztecs Betting Analysis

No team has scored more than 71 points on San Diego State since February 1. The Aztecs do a great job closing off the perimeter to opponents, as teams are making just 28.7% of their three-pointers against this defense. Lamont Butler and Darion Trammell are very good at creating steals, and Jaedon LeDee and Nathan Mensah have kept opponents from getting too many second chances. Alabama has more size than most teams though, so LeDee and Mensah will be put to the test.

Matt Bradley is the only San Diego State player scoring in double digits. Bradley is averaging 13.0 PPG, and he is making 41.1% of his field goals and 36.6% of his three-pointers. Adam Seiko is the player the Aztecs turn to when they need a three-pointer as he is making 44.2% of his threes, and Micah Parrish is a solid perimeter shooter too. San Diego State hasn't been great with its perimeter shooting or free throw shooting through its first two games of the NCAA Tournament though.

San Diego State's depth would come into play more over the weekend, but it could be an X-Factor here. Nine players were on the court for at least 15 minutes in the Aztecs' win over Furman in the second round, and that's about standard for this team. Parrish is a tall guard that can create mismatches, and the Aztecs have four forwards that play significant minutes that are all at least 6'7.

Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Analysis

Brandon Miller has been the best player on Alabama all season. However, Miller has not played well in the NCAA Tournament so far. He failed to score a single point in Alabama's win over Texas A&M Corpus Christi in the first round, and he is just 5 of 22 from the floor at this point. Miller is averaging 19.1 PPG and 8.2 RPG while making 39.5% of his threes this season, and that's the player the Crimson Tide need going forward if they are going to win their first national title.

Alabama has another great freshman that has been somewhat overshadowed by Miller. Noah Clowney is averaging 10.0 PPG and 7.9 RPG, and he has shown that he can stretch the floor with his three-point shooting in recent weeks. After struggling with his perimeter game for most of the season, Clowney is 10 of 25 from beyond the arc over Alabama's last seven games. That's huge if he can keep that up because Miller is 6'9, Clowney is 6'10, and center Charles Bediako is 7'0. If Miller and Clowney can effectively play away from the basket, that will disrupt what San Diego State wants to do on defense.

The Crimson Tide rank first in defensive effective field goal percentage. They rank first in two-point percentage (40.9%) and third in three-point percentage (28.1%). Their pace plays a role in this to be sure, but their length makes it hard for opponents to shoot over them. Bediako is a superb shot blocker, so Alabama wants to keep him out of foul trouble as he has 13 fouls in his last three games.