2026 Home Run Derby Odds: Who Will Compete in Philadelphia?

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

UPDATED 11:56 AM, JULY 9TH: The T-Mobile Home Run Derby returns on Monday, July 13, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia — and for the first time, the event streams live on Netflix. It also arrives with a format overhaul: MLB has scrapped the clock-based system that defined the Derby for the past decade in favor of a swing-based structure reminiscent of the pre-2015 era. Hitters get 20 swings in the opening round and 15 apiece in the semifinals and final, with no bonus time. If a player homers on his very last swing, he keeps swinging until he doesn't.

Updated on 7/9/26

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That change puts a premium on stamina and consistency over pure volume, and it should factor heavily into how bettors — and MLB front offices — think about which sluggers to back this year. As always, the bracket will be made up of eight total contestants, seeded after an opening round and narrowed down through a semifinal and final.

As of this week, five names are locked into the eight-player field, with the rest expected to trickle in over the coming days. Below is a breakdown of the confirmed contestants, the odds picture, and the top names still in play — including several of the sport's biggest sluggers who have been the subject of heavy speculation.

The Confirmed Field So Far

The Derby always fields eight sluggers, and five spots are now spoken for.

Junior Caminero (Rays) was the first player to commit, and he enters as last year's runner-up to Cal Raleigh after a show-stopping performance in Atlanta. He's been on an absolute tear in 2026, homering 11 times in a recent 12-game stretch. At 23, he's chasing history: a Derby win would make him the youngest champion ever, edging a mark held by Juan Gonzalez since 1993. This will be his second straight Derby appearance.

Ben Rice (Yankees) was the second confirmed entrant, announcing his participation on July 7. It's a first-time Derby appearance for the 27-year-old first baseman, who has broken out in a big way in his third big-league season with strong exit-velocity and barrel-rate numbers that scouts consider ideal Derby traits. His father, a former college pitcher at Brown, will throw to him. Rice is looking to become the first Yankee to win the event since Aaron Judge in 2017.

Jac Caglianone (Royals) became the third player to commit. The 23-year-old, taken sixth overall in the 2024 draft, has attributed his 2026 breakout to an improved mental approach at the plate, and he enters the Derby fresh off a stretch of six home runs in five games. He'll be the first Royal to compete in the event since Bobby Witt Jr. in 2024.

Willson Contreras (Red Sox) is the fourth confirmed entrant. The veteran first baseman is in the midst of a career year at the plate for Boston, and he was recently added to the AL All-Star roster as a replacement for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is skipping the game to rest a lower-back issue. Contreras gives the field a proven, powerful bat and postseason pedigree from his years as a middle-of-the-order catcher in Chicago and St. Louis.

Jordan Walker (Cardinals) is the latest player to officially join the field. Walker has broken out in his fourth big-league season, leading the National League in RBIs at the break and posting the best power numbers of his career, and he'll now get to show off that pop on one of the sport's biggest stages. He'd previously told Cardinals reporters he was interested in competing if asked, and that interest has translated into an official commitment. Walker becomes the first Cardinal to compete in the Derby since Nolan Arenado, and his combination of size, bat speed and fresh legs makes him one of the more intriguing new faces in this year's bracket.

That leaves three spots open in the eight-player bracket, with Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Hunter Goodman and several others among the names most connected to the remaining slots.

The Big Names Still in Speculation

Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber enters the break as MLB's home run leader and is arguably the most obvious fit for this year's Derby given that it's being staged in his home ballpark. He has already told reporters he plans to participate as long as he's healthy and on the All-Star roster — a box he's since checked as Philadelphia's DH selection. Schwarber has two prior Derby appearances, including a runner-up finish to Bryce Harper back in 2018, and sportsbooks have consistently priced him near the top of MLB home run futures markets all season. If he competes, expect him to open as one of the favorites.

Bryce Harper

Harper's path to the Derby is tied directly to his health and All-Star status, both of which have since been resolved — he was added to the NL roster as a "legends" selection. Harper has said clearly that he wants to be healthy and an All-Star before committing to anything else, but he has previously indicated he's open to competing at home. He already has Derby experience and a title on his résumé from 2018 in Washington. A Schwarber-Harper pairing, two Phillies going head-to-head in their own park, would be one of the more compelling storylines the event could produce.

Hunter Goodman

Few names have generated more Derby buzz than the Rockies catcher. Goodman is having a historic season, sitting second in MLB in home runs and on pace to challenge the Colorado single-season franchise record. He's publicly said he wants an invitation, and his manager has backed the idea, noting his durability and inability to wear down late in games — a trait that matters even more under this year's swing-based format. Goodman would be the first Rockies player in the Derby since Trevor Story in 2021, and a Coors Field slugger swinging for the fences in a hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park is an intriguing profile for oddsmakers.

Julio Rodriguez

Rodriguez already holds the Derby record for homers in a single round (41), a mark he authored in a previous appearance, and that history alone keeps his name in the conversation every year. His 2026 season has been a step down from his usual standard, and he wasn't voted into the All-Star Game as a starter, which could affect both his eligibility and his motivation to add another exhausting event to his schedule. If he's healthy and on the roster, though, his track record makes him a name to watch.

James Wood

Wood already has Derby experience from last year's event in Atlanta, where he was eliminated by eventual champion Cal Raleigh's bracket. He returns to the All-Star Game as an NL reserve outfielder off another strong power season in Washington. Given his prior participation and continued production, Wood remains firmly in the mix of plausible additions to this year's field, particularly if organizers look to balance out the American League-heavy early commitments.

Brandon Lowe

Lowe's case is built more on production than buzz — he's one of just a handful of hitters in baseball with 20-plus home runs and 20-plus doubles at the break, a group that also includes Wood and Braves star Matt Olson. He wasn't included on the AL All-Star roster, which typically makes Derby inclusion less likely, since MLB has generally preferred to pull from the All-Star pool. Still, Lowe's raw power profile means his name tends to surface in "under the radar" Derby conversations.

Pete Alonso

No player has hit more career Derby home runs than Alonso, who owns the all-time mark with 207 across his appearances. He's currently the betting market's proxy for professional Derby performance, and after a strong batted-ball season following his move to Baltimore, his underlying exit-velocity and barrel numbers suggest he's still one of the most dangerous power hitters in the sport even if his raw home run total hasn't always matched his contact quality. Alonso is a totally credible late addition if organizers want a proven closer for the bracket.

Juan Soto

Soto was voted in as an NL starting outfielder and remains one of the most marketable stars in the sport, which always makes him a name Derby organizers would love to land. He hasn't been prominently connected to this year's field in the way Schwarber, Goodman or Walker were before their commitments, and his game has leaned more toward all-around production and even stolen bases this season than pure power numbers. A Soto commitment would be one of the bigger surprises left on the board, but given his star power, it wouldn't be shocking if the event tried to make it happen.

What About the Odds?

Official futures markets for the 2026 Home Run Derby field will take shape once the final eight names are locked in, likely in the days leading up to July 13. In the meantime, the closest proxy bettors have is the MLB home run leader market, where Schwarber and Cal Raleigh have traded places near the top of the board most of the season, with Alonso and other established sluggers priced further down as value plays.

Once the bracket is finalized, expect sportsbooks to install the biggest current home run threat — likely Schwarber, if he's in the field — as the favorite, with youth, ballpark familiarity (a boost for Schwarber and Harper as home players) and recent hot streaks (a boost for Goodman and Caminero) as the biggest swing factors in the odds. The new swing-limited format is also expected to compress scoring compared to recent years, which could make experienced Derby competitors like Alonso and Julio Rodriguez more attractive value bets relative to first-timers who might not adjust as quickly to swinging under a hard cap rather than a clock.

Check back as the final field is announced — this page will be updated with confirmed contestants and betting lines as they're released.

Odds and futures are subject to change. Always check with your sportsbook of choice for the most current lines.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson