2026 Home Run Derby Odds: Murakami Finalizes Field

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

4 minute read

UPDATED 8:27 PM, JULY 10TH:

The T-Mobile Home Run Derby returns on Monday, July 13, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia — and for the first time, the event streams live on Netflix. It also arrives with a format overhaul: MLB has scrapped the clock-based system that defined the Derby for the past decade in favor of a swing-based structure reminiscent of the pre-2015 era. Hitters get 20 swings in the opening round and 15 apiece in the semifinals and final, with no bonus time. If a player homers on his very last swing, he keeps swinging until he doesn't.

Updated on 8/23/26

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That change puts a premium on stamina and consistency over pure volume, and it should factor heavily into how bettors — and MLB front offices — think about which sluggers to back this year. As always, the bracket will be made up of eight total contestants, seeded after an opening round and narrowed down through a semifinal and final.

As of Thursday, the field is complete: all eight sluggers are locked in for Monday night. Below is a breakdown of the confirmed contestants, who just missed the cut, and what the odds picture looks like heading into the event.

The Confirmed Field So Far

The Derby always fields eight sluggers, and now all eight spots are spoken for.

Junior Caminero (Rays) was the first player to commit, and he enters as last year's runner-up to Cal Raleigh after a show-stopping performance in Atlanta. He's been on an absolute tear in 2026, homering 11 times in a recent 12-game stretch. At 23, he's chasing history: a Derby win would make him the youngest champion ever, edging a mark held by Juan Gonzalez since 1993. This will be his second straight Derby appearance.

Ben Rice (Yankees) was the second confirmed entrant, announcing his participation on July 7. It's a first-time Derby appearance for the 27-year-old first baseman, who has broken out in a big way in his third big-league season with strong exit-velocity and barrel-rate numbers that scouts consider ideal Derby traits. His father, a former college pitcher at Brown, will throw to him. Rice is looking to become the first Yankee to win the event since Aaron Judge in 2017.

Jac Caglianone (Royals) became the third player to commit. The 23-year-old, taken sixth overall in the 2024 draft, has attributed his 2026 breakout to an improved mental approach at the plate, and he enters the Derby fresh off a stretch of six home runs in five games. He'll be the first Royal to compete in the event since Bobby Witt Jr. in 2024.

Willson Contreras (Red Sox) is the fourth confirmed entrant. The veteran first baseman is in the midst of a career year at the plate for Boston, and he was recently added to the AL All-Star roster as a replacement for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is skipping the game to rest a lower-back issue. Contreras gives the field a proven, powerful bat and postseason pedigree from his years as a middle-of-the-order catcher in Chicago and St. Louis.

Jordan Walker (Cardinals) was the fifth player to officially join the field. Walker has broken out in his fourth big-league season, leading the National League in RBIs at the break and posting the best power numbers of his career, and he'll now get to show off that pop on one of the sport's biggest stages. He'd previously told Cardinals reporters he was interested in competing if asked, and that interest has translated into an official commitment. Walker becomes the first Cardinal to compete in the Derby since Nolan Arenado, and his combination of size, bat speed and fresh legs makes him one of the more intriguing new faces in this year's bracket.

Bryce Harper (Phillies) is the sixth confirmed entrant, announcing his participation via Instagram. Harper had said for days that his commitment hinged on lining up the right batting-practice pitcher — he was emphatic that it couldn't be "somebody random" — and it appears he's found his man. Harper won the Derby in 2018 while with the Nationals, beating current teammate Kyle Schwarber in the final, and he also finished as the 2013 runner-up. Competing at home in Philadelphia, in front of the fans who've watched him anchor the middle of the Phillies' lineup since 2019, gives this year's event an obvious signature storyline. Harper has said that if he's doing it, he's doing it to win it, not just for show.

Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) was the seventh confirmed entrant. Schwarber enters the break as MLB's home run leader and had already told reporters he planned to participate as long as he was healthy and selected to the All-Star Game — a box he checked as Philadelphia's DH selection. His commitment sets up a rematch of the 2018 final, when Harper beat him for the title in Washington, only this time both sluggers will be swinging in Phillies red in front of the home crowd. Schwarber, who launched 56 homers a year ago and leads the majors again in 2026, enters as one of the favorites to win it all.

Munetaka Murakami (White Sox) is the eighth and final entrant, rounding out the field. The rookie first baseman/outfielder built his reputation in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball league with the Yakult Swallows, where he set the NPB single-season home run record with 56 homers in 2022, before making the jump to Chicago this season. His addition gives the Derby an international flavor and a bit of intrigue, since evaluators have less of a track record to go on for how his prodigious raw power will translate to a live Derby setting against MLB pitching.

The eight-player field is now complete: Junior Caminero, Ben Rice, Jac Caglianone, Willson Contreras, Jordan Walker, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Munetaka Murakami will all take their hacks on Monday, July 13, at Citizens Bank Park.

Who Just Missed the Cut

With the field set at eight, several of the names that dominated Derby speculation all week didn't get the call. Here's where a few of the bigger ones stand.

Hunter Goodman

Few names generated more Derby buzz than the Rockies catcher over the past week. Goodman is having a historic season, sitting second in MLB in home runs and on pace to challenge the Colorado single-season franchise record, and he'd publicly said he wanted an invitation. He didn't get one for this year's event, but a Rockies slugger of his caliber figures to be in the conversation again in future years.

Julio Rodriguez

Rodriguez already holds the Derby record for homers in a single round (41), a mark he authored in a previous appearance, and that history kept his name in the conversation all week. His 2026 season has been a step down from his usual standard, and he wasn't voted onto the All-Star roster as a starter — factors that likely played into his omission from this year's field.

James Wood

Wood already has Derby experience from last year's event in Atlanta, where he was eliminated in Cal Raleigh's bracket. He returns to the All-Star Game as an NL reserve outfielder off another strong power season in Washington, but he won't get a second Derby appearance this time around.

Brandon Lowe

Lowe's case was built more on production than buzz — he's one of just a handful of hitters in baseball with 20-plus home runs and 20-plus doubles at the break, a group that also includes Wood and Braves star Matt Olson. He wasn't included on the AL All-Star roster, which typically makes Derby inclusion less likely, and that held true here.

Pete Alonso

No player has hit more career Derby home runs than Alonso, who owns the all-time mark with 207 across his appearances. He remains one of the most dangerous power hitters in the sport after a strong batted-ball season in Baltimore, but he won't get the chance to add to that record this year.

Juan Soto

Soto was voted in as an NL starting outfielder and remains one of the most marketable stars in the sport, which made him a name Derby organizers would have loved to land. His game has leaned more toward all-around production and stolen bases this season than pure power numbers, and in the end he wasn't part of the announced field.

What About the Odds?

With the full field now set, sportsbooks are expected to post official Derby futures in the days leading up to July 13. In the meantime, the closest proxy bettors have is the MLB home run leader market, where Schwarber and Cal Raleigh traded places near the top of the board for much of the season.

Schwarber looks like a logical favorite once official Derby lines go up, given he led the majors in home runs at the break and gets to swing at Citizens Bank Park in front of the home crowd. Harper, as the reigning 2018 champion and fellow Phillie, should also open near the top of the board — and a Schwarber-Harper final would be a rematch of that 2018 title bout, this time with both players in Phillies red. Caminero, last year's runner-up, and Rice, this season's breakout Yankee, are the next tier down. Murakami is the biggest wild card in the field: his prodigious raw power in Japan's NPB is well documented, but with no MLB Derby track record to lean on, expect sportsbooks to treat him as a longer-shot price until he's seen live at Citizens Bank Park. The new swing-limited format is also expected to compress scoring compared to recent years, which could make experienced Derby competitors like Caminero and Harper more attractive value bets relative to first-timers still adjusting to a hard swing cap rather than a clock.

Odds and futures are subject to change. Always check with your sportsbook of choice for the most current lines. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson