Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

October 10, 2021

Jonathan Willis
MLB Expert
VegasInsider.com

Game 3 of the ALDS sees the Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays after winning Game 2 on the road. Opening pitch is set for 4:07 p.m. ET and will air on MLB Network from Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Game 3 Predictions

The Boston Red Sox picked themselves up off the mat after a tough Game 1 and roared back from an early deficit in Game 2 to beat the Tampa Bay Rays. They hammered the Rays 14-6 and became the first team all year to record 20 hits against this pitching staff. Now, the Red Sox have the chance to close out the series in Fenway Park if they win the next two games.

After surviving the one-game Wild Card against the New York Yankees and picking up a split against the Rays in Tropicana Field, the Red Sox will have Nathan Eovaldi back on the mound this Sunday. Eovaldi has been Boston’s best starter this season, and he should give the Red Sox the edge in Game 3.

Score Prediction: Red Sox 4, Rays 2

Best Bet: Red Sox ML

Best Bet: Under 8.5

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Game 3 Betting Odds

Game odds provided by DraftKings - subject to change

• Rays -105
• Red Sox -115
• Rays -1.5 +155
• Red Sox +1.5 -180
• Over 8.5 -110
• Under 8.5 -110

The Tampa Bay Rays have gone UNDER the run total in five of their last six road games. (AP)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Game 3 Betting Resources

• Matchup: AL East
• Date: Sunday, October 10, 2021
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Location: Boston, Massachusetts
• TV-Time: MLBN - 4:07 p.m. ET

• Weather Report
• Injury Report

Inside the Stats - Tampa Bay Rays

• Record: 101-63
• Run Line: 97-67
• O/U: 85-72-7
• Runs: 857 (2nd)
• Batting Average: .242 (14th)
• On Base Percentage: .321 (11th)
• ERA: 3.67 (4th)
• WHIP: 1.17 (3rd)

Inside the Stats - Boston Red Sox

• Record: 94-71
• Run Line: 87-78
• O/U: 76-85-4
• Runs: 829 (5th)
• Batting Average: .261 (3rd)
• On Base Percentage: .328 (7th)
• ERA: 4.26 (15th)
• WHIP: 1.38 (23rd)

Key Players to Watch

• TMB: Randy Arozarena - LF (.274 avg, 20 HRs, 69 RBIs)
• TMB: Austin Meadows - DH (.234 avg, 27 HRs, 106 RBIs)
• BOS: Rafael Devers - 3B (.279 avg, 38 HRs, 113 RBIs)
• BOS: Xander Bogaerts - SS (.295 avg, 23 HRs, 79 RBIs)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Game 3 Probable Pitchers

TMB: Drew Rasmussen - RHP (4-1, 2.84 ERA, 73 Ks, 1.08 WHIP)

BOS: Nathan Eovaldi - RHP (11-9, 3.75 ERA, 195 Ks, 1.19 WHIP)

The Boston Red Sox have won five of their last six games. (AP)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Game 3 Betting Analysis

Eovaldi was the most reliable pitcher for the Red Sox in the regular season. He went 11-9 with a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.75 ERA. His 4.6 WAR was best among Boston pitchers, and he has allowed no more than three hits through seven innings in three of his four starts against Tampa Bay this season.

Boston’s ace was strong against the Yankees last Tuesday. He threw 5.1 innings and struck out eight batters while allowing just one run in a 6-2 win over New York.

Enrique Hernandez was one of Boston’s many stars on Friday night. Five different players had at least three hits, but Hernandez led the way with five hits on the night. He hit a home run and three doubles to be the most successful batter on the Red Sox in Game 2. Hernandez finished the regular season with a .679 OPS against the Rays, so that was a pleasant surprise for Alex Cora.

The other players with at least three hits were Xander Bogaerts, Alex Verdugo, J.D. Martinez, and Christian Vazquez. Bogaerts, Verdugo, and Martinez are in the heart of the order, helping Boston explode for 14 runs.

Rafael Devers only had one hit on Friday, but he now has four walks through two games in this series. Devers wasn’t great against the Rays in the regular season with a .740 OPS against the division rival, but he has been able to get on base in the playoffs.

Drew Rasmussen will start Game 3 for Tampa Bay on Sunday. Rasmussen began the season as a reliever but was moved into the starting rotation after the Rays suffered multiple injuries to their starters.

He has been lights out over the last two months, not surrendering more than two runs in any of his 10 starts. Rasmussen posted a 2.12 ERA in 17 innings in August, and he registered a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings in September.

The top of the order has hit the ball well for the Rays. Randy Arozarena is still red hot in the postseason, and he has already been on base five times in nine plate appearances.

Wunderkind Wander Franco is thriving in his first postseason too. Franco leads the Rays in total bases, and he already has four hits through two games.

Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, Brandon Lowe continues to fall flat in the playoffs. Lowe has yet to reach base in any of his eight plate appearances. He struck out three times in Game 2 as it’s clear he is feeling the pressure and starting to overreact.

The Rays will need some power out of Nelson Cruz, Yandy Diaz, or Mike Zunino if they are going to grab home field advantage back from the Red Sox.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Game 3 Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay has won the first inning in three of its last four games.
• Tampa Bay has gone UNDER the run total in five of its last six road games.
• Tampa Bay has led after three innings in five straight games when playing in Boston on a Sunday.
• Tampa Bay has covered the run line in four of its last five games when facing Boston.

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