Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Predictions, Odds, Preview
Game 1 of the ALCS sees the Boston Red Sox travel to Houston to take on the Astros. Opening pitch is set for 8:07 p.m. ET and will air on FOX from Minute Maid Park.
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Game 1 Predictions
The Houston Astros have now made the ALCS for the fifth straight season. Houston is 2-2 over its last four trips to this point, making it to the World Series in 2017 and 2019, and falling in 2018 and 2020. They are favored to continue their trend of making the Fall Classic in odd-numbered years, but the Boston Red Sox have the hottest bats in baseball over the last couple weeks
There should be plenty of runs scored in Game 1 of this series. Chris Sale has struggled in his recent outings, while the Red Sox are the hottest hitting team in baseball. Houston has an intimidating lineup that should be able to put some runs past the plate on Sale, but Boston will perform a little better at the dish and strike the opening blow.
Score Prediction
Red Sox 6, Astros 5
Best Bets
Over
Red Sox ML
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Game 1 Betting Odds
Game odds provided by DraftKings - subject to change
- Astros -150
- Red Sox +130
- Astros -1.5 +130
- Red Sox +1.5 -150
- Over 8 -115
- Under 8 -105
The Boston Red Sox have trailed after three innings in three straight road games. (AP)
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Game 1 Betting Resources
- Matchup: AL East vs. AL Central
- Date: Friday, October 15, 2021
- Venue: Minute Maid Park
- Location: Houston, Texas
- TV-Time: FOX - 8:07 p.m. ET
Inside the Stats - Boston Red Sox
- Record: 96-71
- Run Line: 88-79
- O/U: 78-85-4
- Runs: 829 (5th)
- Batting Average: .261 (3rd)
- On Base Percentage: .328 (7th)
- ERA: 4.26 (15th)
- WHIP: 1.38 (23rd)
Inside the Stats - Houston Astros
- Record: 98-68
- Run Line: 80-86
- O/U: 89-69-8
- Runs: 863 (1st)
- Batting Average: .267 (1st)
- On Base Percentage: .339 (1st)
- ERA: 3.76 (7th)
- WHIP: 1.23 (8th)
Key Players to Watch
- BOS: Rafael Devers - 3B (.279 avg, 38 HR, 113 RBI)
- BOS: Xander Bogaerts - SS (.295 avg, 23 HR, 79 RBI)
- HOU: Yordan Alvarez - DH (.277 avg, 33 HR, 104 RBI)
- HOU: Jose Altuve - 2B (.277 avg, 31 HR, 83 RBI)
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Game 1 Probable Pitchers
BOS: Chris Sale - LHP (5-1, 3.16 ERA, 52 Ks, 1.34 WHIP)
HOU: Framber Valdez - LHP (11-6, 3.14 ERA, 125 Ks, 1.25 WHIP)
The Astros have won eight straight home games when facing the AL East after winning on the road the game prior. (AP)
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Game 1 Betting Analysis
Chris Sale is a somewhat surprising Game 1 starter for Alex Cora. Boston was expected to call upon Nathan Eovaldi, but Cora is giving the ball to Sale instead despite his recent woes.
He was rocked for five earned runs in an inning of work against the Tampa Bay Rays last Friday. Sale had a poor regular season finale against the Washington Nationals too, but the Red Sox are optimistic that he can rediscover his form.
Boston’s bats have come alive in the postseason. The Red Sox are tearing the cover off the ball with their top seven hitters each hitting .300 or more through the first five games of the playoffs.
Enrique Hernandez has been exceptional with 10 hits and a 1.266 OPS in 24 plate appearances. J.D. Martinez has shown few ill effects after missing the first two games with an injury, and he is hitting .467 this postseason. Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, and Kyle Schwarber are all carrying an OPS over 1.0 too.
The main concern for the Red Sox in Game 1 is the bullpen. Boston’s bullpen has been unreliable all season, but Tanner Houck has provided stability since being moved out of the rotation and Garrett Whitlock has been a solid arm.
Dusty Baker will send Framber Valdez to the mound for Game 1. Valdez was decent in the regular season with a 1.25 WHIP and a 3.14 ERA, but he wasn’t great in his postseason start last week against the Chicago White Sox. He allowed seven hits and four earned runs in 4.1 innings, yet the Astros won the game.
Valdez was great against Boston in the regular season. In two starts, he went 2-0 with 18 strikeouts in 14.1 innings. He allowed just two earned runs in those starts, but the Red Sox should have more success on Friday.
Houston has been hitting the ball well this postseason. However, the Astros have had some unsustainable success in certain areas. For instance, Jose Altuve was on base nine times against Chicago in the ALDS and scored nine runs against the White Sox.
Altuve is currently one of four Houston players with an OPS over 1.0 this postseason. Kyle Tucker, Carlos Correa, and Yordan Alvarez are also hitting the ball very well, and Tucker leads the team in total bases thanks to two home runs.
The Astros don’t have great relievers either. Ryan Pressly was the only dependable bullpen arm in the regular season, and Houston’s efforts to bolster the bullpen have largely been unsuccessful. If Valdez can’t throw at least five innings, Houston will be in trouble in Game 1.
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Game 1 Betting Trends
- The underdog has covered the run line in four of the last five meetings.
- The road team has won three of the last four meetings.
- Boston has lost the first inning in three of its last four games.
- Houston has gone UNDER the run total in six straight games when facing the AL East at night.
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