Last Updated Apr 23, 2022, 12:15 PM
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Picks, Predictions, Odds
Sports Betting Expert
The Milwaukee Brewers (8-5) will travel to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (5-8) on Friday for the first-game of a three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and can be viewed on MLB Extra Innings or MLB.tv.
Philadelphia 5, Milwaukee 4
- Over 8 (-115) at BetMGM
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Predictions
The Milwaukee Brewers enter this matchup after sweeping the Pittsburgh Pirates three games to zero. The Brewers have now won four straight and find themselves a half game behind St. Louis for first place of the NL Central. The pitching was fantastic throughout the series against Pittsburgh, allowing just five runs over the three games. The offense was rolling as well with 15 runs scored in the series. Right-handed pitcher Freddy Peralta is scheduled to take the mound Friday. Peralta is 0-1 this season through two games and has allowed 10 hits, nine earned runs, and struck out 10 batters in 7.0 innings of work.
Philadelphia is coming off a three-game series with the Rockies. The Phillies lost the first two games, but were able to avoid the sweep with a win on Wednesday. Prior to Wednesday’s win over Colorado, the Phillies had lost seven of their last eight. The pitching has not been great for Philadelphia this season, allowing less than four runs in just three of their 13 games played. The leftie, Ranger Suarez is expected to get the start Friday. Suarez is 1-0 in two games this season and has allowed 11 hits, five earned runs, and struck out five batters in 7.2 innings.
This should be an interesting matchup. The Brewers have clearly looked like the better team this season, but have struggled in the past when playing in Philadelphia. The Phillies have been putting up runs but can't seem to figure it out from a pitching standpoint. Either team could win this first game, so I think playing the total is the best play here. The starting pitchers have a combined ERA of 17.44 this season and the total has gone over in four of the last six when these teams meet in Philadelphia. Backing the over eight runs here.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Odds
- Brewers +100
- Phillies -120
- Brewers +1.5 (-200)
- Phillies -1.5 (+165)
- Over 8 (-115)
- Under 8 (-105)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Resources
- Date: Friday, April 22, 2022
- Matchup: NL Central vs. NL East
- Stadium: Citizens Bank Park
- Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
- TV-Time: MLB.tv - 7:05 p.m. ET
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Analysis
The Brewers have looked solid to open the season and are 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS, and have an O/U record of 4-7-2. Milwaukee has struggled on the road in recent past with a SU record of 4-12 in their last 16 road games. This trend continues when playing on the road against the Phillies, going 1-4 SU in their last five road games against Philadelphia. The total has gone under in six of Milwaukee’s last eight games.
Milwaukee’s offense has been consistent through 13 games and have scored four runs or more in eight games this season. As a team the Brewers have a batting average of .208 (25th), on base percentage of .291 (22nd), slugging percentage of .348 (21st), and have scored 46 total runs (19th). The first baseman Rowdy Tellez has a team high batting average of .270 (10-37), three home runs, and eight RBIs. Left fielder Andrew McCutchen has also been hitting well with a batting average of .250 (11-44), zero home runs, and five RBIs.
The Brewers pitching have held opponents to two runs or less in seven games this so far this season. As a team they are allowing opponents a batting average of .212 (8th), have an ERA of 3.47, and have allowed 49 total runs (13th). In their most recent win over the Pirates, Milwaukee used five different pitchers. Starter Brandon Woodruff lasted 6.0 innings and allowed one hit and zero runs. The other four pitchers used allowed a combine four hits and two runs in 3.0 innings. The right-hander Freddy Peralta is scheduled to start on Friday. Peralta is 0-1 this season through two games and has allowed 10 hits, nine earned runs, and struck out 10 batters in 7.0 innings of work.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Analysis
The Phillies have gotten off to a rocky start and are 5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS, and have an O/U record of 6-6-1. Going back to last season Philadelphia has seen success at home, with a SU record of 10-5 in their last 15 home games. The total has gone over in four of the Phillies last six games. Following this trend, the total has gone over in four of the last six games when Philadelphia plays at home against Milwaukee.
Philadelphia’s offense has been pretty good considering their record, but the lack of help from the pitching makes it tough to win games. As a team they have a batting average of .257 (5th), on base percentage of .331 (7th), slugging percentage of .430 (3rd), and have scored 57 runs (9th). The left fielder Nick Castellanos has been great with a batting average of .306 (15-49), three home runs, and seven RBIs. All-Star Bryce Harper is still trying to get the bat working with a batting average of .220 (11-50), two HR, and 10 RBIs.
The pitching for the Phillies has been the team's biggest downfall thus far. As a team they are allowing opponents a batting average of .251 (24th), have an ERA of 5.22 (28th), and have allowed 67 total runs (26th). In their most recent win against the Rockies, Philadelphia sent five different pitchers to the mound. Starter Zach Eflin lasted 5.2 innings and allowed nine hits and four runs. The other four pitchers used gave up a combined three hits and two runs. Left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez is expected to take the mound Friday. Suarez is 1-0 in two games this season and has allowed 11 hits, five earned runs, and struck out five batters in 7.2 innings.
Key Players to Watch
- MIL: Christian Yelich - OF (Last Game: 0-4)
- MIL: Willy Adames - SS (Last Game 0-4)
- PHI: Bryce Harper - DH (Last Game: 1-5, R)
- PHI: Nick Castellanos - OF (Last Game: 3-4, HR, 2 R, RBI, BB)
- MIL: Freddy Peralta - RHP (0-1, 11.57 ERA, 10 K, 2.29 WHIP)
- PHI: Ranger Suarez - LHP (1-0, 5.87 ERA, 5 K, 1.96 WHIP)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Conclusion
These two teams have had opposite starts to the season. Milwaukee has been winning games thanks to their quality pitching. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has been getting it done with the bats, but have not had much help from their pitching. I like the total to go over in this one. Both starting pitchers have struggled to start the season and we should see quite a few runs. Backing the over eight runs here.