San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Picks, Predictions, Odds

The San Diego Padres (20-12) will take on the Atlanta Braves (15-17) Friday for game-one of a three-game series. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20 PM ET at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia and can be viewed on Apple TV+.  

Score Prediction

Braves 5, Padres 3 

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• Braves RL (+146) at FanDuel

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San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Predictions

The San Diego Padres enter this matchup second in the NL West, one and a half games behind the Dodgers for first place. The Padres have lost three of their last five games, including two games to the Cubs in their most recent three-game series. San Diego’s bats have been solid thus far, averaging 4.28 runs per game. The bullpen has had a few bad outings, but the offensive production has given them a bit of room for error. Right-handed pitcher Yu Darvish is scheduled to start on Friday. Darvish is 3-1 in six games this season with an ERA of 4.05 and has given up 26 hits, 15 earned runs, and struck out 28 batters in 33.1 innings.  

The Atlanta Braves are currently second in the NL East, six and a half games behind the Mets for first place. The Braves have won three of their last four games, including a 5-3 win over the Red Sox on Wednesday. Atlanta has not hit the ball all that well this season, averaging 4.0 runs per game. The bullpen has been inconsistent and are allowing teams 4.10 runs per game. The left-hander Max Fried is expected to take the mound Friday. Fried is 4-2 in six games this season with an ERA of 2.68 and has given up 29 hits, 11 earned runs, and struck out 35 batters in 37.0 innings of work.  

Atlanta won two of three games in their first series with the Padres this season. I like that trend to continue and for Atlanta to cover the runline in this matchup. Max Fried has been excellent in his last four starts and their offense has been rejuvenated since the return of Ronald Acuna Jr. I like the Padres to win this series, but do think the Braves will get the best of them in game one. Backing the Braves –1.5 here.

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Odds

• Padres +126
• Braves -148
• Padres +1.5 (-178)
• Braves -1.5 (+146)
• Over 7 (-18)
• Under 7 (-104)

MLB Odds | World Series Odds | Expert Picks

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Resources

• Date: Friday, May 13, 2022
• Matchup: NL West vs. NL East
• Stadium: Truist Park
• Location: Atlanta, Georgia
• TV-Time: Apple TV+ - 7:20 p.m. ET

San Diego Padres Betting Analysis

The Padres are putting together a solid season and have gone 20-12 SU, 15-17 ATS, and have an O/U record of 15-17. The total has gone over in seven of San Diego’s last eight road games. Going against this trend the total has gone under in seven of their last eight when playing on the road against Atlanta. The Padres are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games and 3-9 SU in their last 12 games against the Braves.  

San Diego’s offense is hitting the ball well this year. As a team the Padres have a batting average of .227 (21st), on base percentage of .320 (7th), slugging percentage of .364 (20th), and have scored 137 runs (8th). The third baseman Manny Machado has been the team’s best hitter with a batting average of .383 (46-120), seven home runs, and 22 RBIs. First baseman Eric Hosmer has been consistent with a batting average of .367 (40-109), four home runs, and 21 RBIs.  

The Padres bullpen ranks amongst the middle of the MLB. As a team they are allowing opponents a batting average of .222 (7th), have an ERA of 3.68 (14th), and have given up 129 runs (14th). Right-handed pitcher Yu Darvish is scheduled to start on Friday. Darvish is 3-1 in six games this season with an ERA of 4.05 and has given up 26 hits, 15 earned runs, and struck out 28 batters in 33.1 innings. Darvish has faced Atlanta once this season and allowed four hits, one earned run, and struck out eight batters in 6.2 innings.  

Atlanta Braves Betting Analysis

The Braves have struggled to get much going this season and are 15-17 SU, 15-17 ATS, and have an O/U record of 17-13-2. The total has gone over in seven of Atlanta’s last 10 games. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in eight of their last 10 games against San Diego. The Braves are 4-2 SU in their last six games and 9-9 SU at home this season.  

Atlanta’s offense has been a bit stagnant through their first 32 games. As a team the Braves have a batting average of .225 (22nd), on base percentage of .300 (22nd), slugging percentage of .395 (7th), and have scored 131 runs (14th). The catcher Travis d’Arnaud has been bringing in the runs with a batting average of .294 (25-85), three home runs, and 15 RBIs. Third baseman Austin Riley brings some power to the Braves lineup with a batting average of .239 (28-117), seven home runs, and 14 RBIs.  

The Braves bullpen will need to better if they want to compete with the Mets for the NL East. As a team they are allowing opponents a batting average of .230 (16th), have an ERA of 4.10 (24th), and have given up 137 runs (25th). The left-hander Max Fried is expected to take the mound Friday. Fried is 4-2 in six games this season with an ERA of 2.68 and has given up 29 hits, 11 earned runs, and struck out 35 batters in 37.0 innings of work. In his one outing against the Padres last season, Fried allowed three hits, zero runs, and struck out four batters in 9.0 innings.  

Key Players to Watch

• SND: Manny Machado - 3B (Last Game: 2-4, BB)
• SND: Eric Hosmer - 1B (Last Game: 3-5, HR, R, 2 RBI)
• ATL: Matt Olson - 1B (Last Game: 1-4, 2B, RBI)
• ATL: Austin Riley - 3B (Last Game: 1-3, 2B)

Probable Pitchers

• SND: Yu Darvish - RHP (3-1, 4.05 ERA, 28 K, 1.08 WHIP)
• ATL: Max Fried - LHP (4-2, 2.68 ERA, 35 K, 0.84 WHIP)

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Conclusion

I like Atlanta at home in this matchup. Despite their slow start, the Braves have won three of their last four games and the offense is starting to pick up with the return of Acuna Jr. The Padres have lost three of their last five and struggled against the Braves in their first series. Backing the Braves –1.5 here.  

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