MLB Player Props for Friday, June 17

Prop betting expert Stuart Durst gives his top prop bets to consider for MLB action on Friday, June 17. Check out his top play for the diamond action below.

  • Bryce Harper (PHI) Over 0.5 Hits/Phillies ML - Game 1
  • Phillies Over 2.5 Runs F5

Bryce Harper (PHI) Over 0.5 Hits/Phillies ML - Game 1

Fading the Nationals has worked pretty well over these last couple days, let’s do it again. The Nationals were heavily effected by a couple unfortunate pitching situations leading to the bullpen being completely depleted, something they still haven’t recovered from. Despite that, Joan Adon presents this team with a larger problem then the bullpen today. Adon held a 1-10 record with a 6+ ERA, leading the league in walks during his first stint in the major leagues. With a flat 4-seem fastball and a fairly uncontrollable curveball being his only 2 somewhat reliable pitches, it’s clear Adon is absolutely not ready for the big leagues. Adon was recalled for the double header to be a sacrificial lamb to a Phillies team that has been absolutely destroying anyone in there way. 

They way I approached picking a Phillies batter was fairly simple, I went over to baseball savant and found the Phillies batters with the highest average against 4-seem fastballs. Adon throws the 4-seem fastball 66% of the time, and it’s really the only pitch he can consistently throw for a strike. To nobody’s surprise, Bryce Harper came out on top batting .350 against the pitch, and if Adon ever manages to get that curveball in the zone we got you covered there also, he’s hitting .400 vs the pitch this season. Harper is 10th in the MLB in batting average this year, I expect a big game from the former Nationals super star. 

Phillies Over 2.5 Runs F5

This play syncs up pretty clearly with what we’re trying to do today, fade Joan Adon. The biggest problem with playing all these hit parlays is Adons inability to keep pitches in the zone, leading to some extra walks. F5 innings team total is a good way to account for that, we don’t have have to pick the guy that gets a hit, we just have to assume Adon continues to struggle. It’s currently 90 degrees and hot in the nations capital, the ball should continue to fly.