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Last Updated Jul 01, 2022, 6:40 PM

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Betting Analysis

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Betting Analysis

The Miami Marlins will visit the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park for the first of a four-game set on Friday, July 1, 2022.

The Marlins are currently in fourth place in the National League East standings with a 34-40 record. Away from loanDepot Park, Miami owns a 15-24 mark. Miami sits 12 games behind the New York Mets for the top spot in the division. The Nationals are 19 games back in the National League East standings with records of 29-49 overall and 14-27 at home on the year.

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Betting Prediction

The Miami Marlins enter this matchup fourth in the NL East standings, 12.0 games behind the New York Mets for first place. The Marlins most recently went 1-2 SU against the St. Louis Cardinals and have gone 5-5 SU over their last 10 games. The Marlins struggled to score runs against the Cardinals, going scoreless in game one, three runs scored in game two, and four runs in game three. These scores are all below their season average of 4.36 runs per game (17th). Miami’s bullpen did not play well against St. Louis either, allowing nine runs in game one, five runs in game two, and finished off the series strong by holding the Cardinals to three runs. The Marlins bullpen has been decent throughout the season with a team ERA of 3.95 (17th). 

Washington is currently last in the NL East standings, 19.0 games behind the New York Mets for first place. The Nationals went 2-1 SU in their most recent series with the Pittsburgh Pirates and have won six of their last 10 games. Washington’s bullpen was solid in games one and two against the Pirates, holding them to a combine three runs. Game three did not go as smoothly as the Nationals gave up nine runs. Their bullpen has struggled most of this season with a team ERA of 5.10 (29th) but have been better as of late with a team ERA of 3.10 over their last 10 games. Washington’s offense was not great against Pittsburgh with a combined six runs scored in games one and two and seven runs scored in game three. This has been a common trend for the Nationals as they average 4.03 runs per game(21st) this season.  

The Marlins have dominated the Nationals this season with an 8-1 SU record. I like for that trend to continue and for Miami to take game-one of this series. While the starting pitchers are evenly matched, I think Washington’s bullpen struggles will be their downfall late into this game. It is tough to find any reason to back a team with an ERA of 5.10 and a record of 1-8 SU against their opponent. Backing the Marlins moneyline in this matchup.

Score Prediction: Marlins 5, Nationals 3
Best Bet: Marlins ML

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Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Betting Resources

  • Date: Friday, July 1, 2022
  • Matchup: NL East
  • Venue: Nationals Park
  • Location: Washington, D.C.
  • Time-TV: 6:05 p.m. ET – MLB.tv

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals – Current Form

Miami has suffered two straight series losses, falling to the Mets and the Cardinals. Game one with the St. Louis Cardinals was Miami’s worst in the last six, as they failed to produce a single run. They allowed a total of nine runs. The Nationals have played excellent recently, highlighted by Washington posting back-to-back series victories over the Rangers and the Pirates squads, resulting in a solid 4-2 record across that window. In the second contest against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, the Washington Nationals were in their best form in the last six games, keeping the Pittsburgh Pirates at only one run.

In the most recent six games, the one played on Wednesday against the Pittsburgh Pirates was their worst. The defense of Washington allowed eight runs.

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals – Pitching Matchup

Miami: Trevor Rogers (3-6, 5.86 ERA)

Miami's Trevor Rogers toes the rubber for his 14th start of the season as he looks to improve on a 3-6 mark and 5.86 ERA. The left-hander has put together a 1.64 WHIP to go along with 58 strikeouts and 31 walks in 63 innings of work. Miami’s 24-year-old left-hander didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came at home against the New York Mets on June 25, 2022. He allowed three runs on seven hits with one walk and five strikeouts in a 3-5 Marlins loss. In his eight starts on the road this season, Rogers is 1-3 with a 4.23 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, 21 walks and 28 strikeouts over 38.1 innings of work.

Washington: Josiah Gray (6-4, 3.82 ERA)

Josiah Gray is on the hill for the Nationals in this contest as he makes his 15th start of the season hoping to build some positive momentum. He comes in 6-4 with a 3.82 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, 33 walks and 82 strikeouts over 75.1 innings of work this season. Gray received a no-decision in his most recent start against the Texas Rangers, as Washington’s right-hander surrendered two runs on four hits, one walk, and nine strikeouts during the Nationals’ 3-2 road loss on June 25, 2022. Gray owns a home record of 2-4 this season, in eight starts at Nationals Park. In those outings, he has posted a 5.91 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, 19 walks, and 40 strikeouts in 35 innings of work.

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals – Series History

During the 2021 campaign, Washington captured the regular season series 11-8. Miami has captured eight of nine meetings with Washington this season.

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