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Last Updated Jul 13, 2022, 2:50 PM

MLB Player Prop Bets for Tuesday, July 12

Prop betting expert Stuart Durst gives his top prop bets to consider for MLB action on Tuesday, July 12. Check out his top play for the diamond action below.

  • Alex Verdugo (BOS) Over 0.5 Hits/Max Kepler (MIN) 0.5 Hits (+114)

Alex Verdugo (BOS) Over 0.5 Hits/Max Kepler (MIN) 0.5 Hits (+114)

Alex Verdugo is someone that I think is flying under the radar right now. Verdugo started the season a bit slow, batting .238/.219 in the first two months of the season, despite that he’s played very well since the start of June, bringing his average up to .265 on the season. Buying guys that are trending upwards over the course of the season is something I try to do, and seeing Verdugo hit .309 L15 and .304 L30 shows he’s definitely headed in the right direction. Additionally he’s someone that's been better on the road this season (.296) but especially in Tropicana Field, where he's batting .352 dating back to 2019. Verdugo is coming in with 1+ hit in 17/L20, with 3 straight multi-hit games leading into this.

Kluber and Verdugo have limited experience against each other (2-5) but I think this is a solid matchup. Kluber’s top 4 pitchers vs LHP are pretty evenly split between 4 pitches, Cutter/Sinker/Changeup/Curveball. Against those 4 pitches, Verdugo has impressive xBA’s of .403/.339/.279/.331. Coming in with a good recent form and a positive matchup, I think Verdugo gets the job done today. 

Picking which Twins player I wanted to attack today was hard, but I ended up on Max Kepler. Brewers pitcher Jason Alexander's baseball savant page is covered in blue, with a 1st percentile in Whiff%/K%, 2nd percentile in xBA, and 6th percentile in xERA/xwOBA. Alexander has especially struggled against LHH this season, allowing a .349 OBA. While Arraez, Kirilloff, and Polanco are all tempting lefty bats, I think Kepler provides the best value. Alexander’s top 3 pitches vs LHH are Sinker/Changeup/Slider. Those happen to be Kepler's best pitches with an xBA of .371/.333/.255. He’s coming in with some good recent form batting .429 over his L7, I think he keeps it rolling in a good matchup today.

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