After a brutal end to yesterday's game, I think the Bronx Bombers live up to their nickname today. Before we even get into the Yankees, let's talk about opposing pitcher Mike Minor. Minor currently boasts a 1-6 record with an 6.63 ERA, additionally he’s allowed 12 HR’s in 38 Innings, which is an insane HR per 3 inning rate. Taking a look at some of his advanced metrics, they are not impressive. Minor is 5th percentile in Barrel% and 8% percentile in xSLG, meaning he’s not missing too many bats but when he does miss them, the ball goes far. Right handed batters are hitting .310 and slugging .660 this season, with 9/12 HR allowed to RHB’s.
Aaron Judge (NYY) Over 0.5 HR (+240)
Now let's talk about two of the best home run hitters in baseball. Aaron Judge currently leads the MLB with 30 HR’s, with 17 of those being at home, and 9 HR’s in 93 AB’s vs LHP (.581 SLG). Minors top 2 pitches are 4seamer/slider which Judge is slugging .828/.652 against. While Stanton missed some time to start the season, he's catching Judge in the HR race, currently sitting at 22. Stanton has some very good history against Minor, batting/slugging .304/.870 with 4 HR’s over the course of 23 AB’s. Gleyber Torres and Matt Carpenter (if he starts) are two other guys I will be targeting on this squad. Obviously with HR plays you wanna lower your unit size on these, not a very consistent market.
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