Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Seattle Mariners will take on the Houston Astros Tuesday afternoon for Game 1 of the ALDS. First pitch is scheduled for 3:37 PM ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas and can be viewed on TBS.  

Updated on 04/23/2024
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The Seattle Mariners enter this matchup with some confidence after beating the Blue Jays two games to none in the AL Wild Card round. Seattle dominated game one with a final scored of 4-0 and managed to come back from seven runs down in game two. This was just the second time in MLB postseason history that a team had come back from down seven runs. The offense started the season extremely slow but have slowly gotten more productive as the season has progressed. Their bullpen has been consistent throughout with an ERA of 3.59 (8th) and honestly carried this team through the first half of the season. The right-hander Logan Gilbert (13-6, 3.20 ERA) is probable to start game-one on Tuesday. 

 Houston was the winner of the AL West division and had the best record in all the American League. The Astros have played well since the start of the season and have become a team that we expect to see in the postseason. They finished of the regular season winning two of three against the Phillies and won seven of their last 10 games. The offense was great over that stretch, averaging 5.0 runs per game. Houston’s bullpen also played well over that stretch with a team ERA of 3.40. Right-handed pitcher Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA) is expected to start on Tuesday.  

I’m not sure you can bet against the Astros here in game one with Verlander taking the mound. Verlander has been one of, If not, the best pitchers in the league this season. Seattle does have the momentum, but I think they may run into a brick wall down in Houston. The total could go either way as the Astros are capable of covering on their own. Not much value in Houston moneyline with them being such heavy favorites so will play the run line here.  

Score Prediction: Astros 5, Mariners 3
Best Bet: Astros -1.5 (+110)


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  • Date: Tuesday, October 11, 2022
  • Matchup: AL West
  • Venue: Minute Maid Park
  • Location: Houston, Texas
  • Time-TV: 3:37 p.m. ET – TBS
  • Expert Picks


After back-to-back wins over the Blue Jays, Seattle is now 92-72 SU and 85-79 ATS. Seattle is 5-0 SU over their last five games but 1-6 SU in their last seven games against Houston. The Mariners have also struggled on the road against Houston with a 6-14 SU record over their last 20 road games against the Astros. The total has gone over in four of their last five games. Following this trend, the total has gone over in four of their last six games on the road.  

The Mariners offense looked calm, cool, and collective in their seven-run comeback win over Toronto this past Saturday. The third baseman Eugenio Suarez hit the ball very well in the Wild Card round, going 4-9 with two RBIs. The catcher Cal Raleigh was productive as well, going 4-9 with one home run and three RBIs. We’ll see if Seattle can keep it up against Houston’s dominant bullpen. Throughout the regular season Seattle had a batting average of .230 (27th), on base percentage of .315 (16th), slugging percentage of .390 (17th) and have scored 690 runs (18th).  

Seattle’s bullpen kept Toronto scoreless in game one of the Wild Card round but did not have the same success in game two, allowing 12 hits and nine runs. During the regular season they allowed opponents a batting average of .235 (10th), had a WHIP of 1.19 (8th), and team ERA of 3.59 (8th). Right-handed pitcher Gilbert is expected to take the mound Tuesday. Gilbert went 13-6 with a 3.20 ERA this season and gave up 170 hits, 66 earned runs, and struck out 174 batters in 185.2 innings of work. Gilbert was solid in his four outings against the Astros this season, giving up a combined 21 hits, seven earned runs, and struck out 22 batters in 25.0 innings. 


The Astros went 106-56 SU and 86-76 ATS during the regular season. Houston is 4-1 SU in their last five games and 9-4 SU in their last 13 games at home. The Astros are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games when playing at home against Seattle. The total has gone under in four of their last five games and six of their last eight games played in October.  

Houston’s lineup is filled with talent from top to bottom. On the season the Astros had a batting average of .248 (12th), on base percentage of .319 (7th), slugging percentage of .424 (5th) and have scored 737 runs (8th). Designated hitter Yordan Alvarez has been a monster this season with a batting average of .306 (144-470), 37 home runs, and 97 RBIs. Right-fielder Kyle Tucker has been a key part of this offense as well with a batting average of .257 (140-544), 30 home runs, and 107 RBIs.  

The Astro’s bullpen has been taking care of business this season. As a team they are allowing opponents a batting average of .248 (12th), have a WHIP of 1.09 (2nd), and a team ERA of 2.90 (2nd). Houston’s ace Verlander is scheduled to start game-one of this series. Verlander was 18-4 this season with an ERA of 1.75 while giving up 116 hits, 34 earned runs, and struck out 185 batters in 175.0 innings of work. Verlander had one of his worst starts of the season against the Mariners on May 27th when he gave up 10 hits and six runs in 6.0 innings. However, he did have five other outings against the Mariners that went quite well.  


  • SEAJulio Rodriguez - CF (Last Game: 0-4, BB)
  • SEA: Eugenio Suarez - 3B (Last Game: 2-5, 2B, 2 R)
  • HOU: Yordan Alvarez - DH (-)
  • HOU: Jose Altuve - 2B (-)


  • SEA: TBD
  • HOU: Justin Verlander - RHP (-)