Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros will meet Thursday for game-two of the ALDS. First pitch is scheduled for 3:37 PM ET at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas and can be viewed on TBS.  

Updated on 04/18/2024
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The Mariners came up just short of the game-one upset after blowing a four-run lead in the eighth and ninth innings on Tuesday. Seattle managed to hold Houston to just three runs in the first seven innings, but the bullpen could not hold off this dominant Astros offense. Seattle’s offense had great production throughout the game with 13 hits, seven runs, and an efficient 5-9 with runners in scoring position. Starting pitcher Logan Gilbert went 5.1 innings while giving up five hits and three runs. Relief pitchers Andres Munoz and Paul Sewald are when problems started to occur as they gave up a combined four hits and four runs in just 1.2 innings. The right-hander Luis Castillo (8-6, 2.99 ERA) is scheduled to start in game-two.

After a sluggish start to game-one, the Astros managed to rally back from four down and win the game thanks to a walk-off home run from Yordan Alvarez. The offense was solid throughout the game with 11 hits, eight runs, three home runs, and went 2-6 with runners in scoring position. Starting pitcher Justin Verlander got rocked by the Mariners, giving up 10 hits and six runs in 4.0 innings of work. The other four pitchers did a nice job not letting things get out of hand, holding the Astros to three hits and one run in 5.0 innings. Southpaw pitcher Framber Valdez (17-6, 2.82 ERA) is expected to take the mound on Thursday.  

This was a tough loss for the Mariners. It’s one thing to just lose the game, but to lose on a walk off home run when Verlander started the game is just brutal. A day off in between game’s one and two to think about everything that went wrong does not help either. Unfortunately, I think the Mariners confidence will be shot from here on out. Castillo has pitched well this season, but Houston’s offense is on another level. Back the Astros MoneyLine here before the line gets too high.  

Score Prediction: Astros 5, Mariners 3
Best Bet: Astros ML (-150)


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  • Date: Thursday, October 13, 2022
  • Matchup: AL West
  • Venue: Minute Maid Park
  • Location: Houston, Texas
  • Time-TV: 3:37 p.m. ET – TBS
  • Expert Picks


After Tuesday’s loss, the Mariners are now 92-73 SU and 86-79 ATS. Seattle is 1-7 SU in their last eight games against the Astros and 6-15 SU in their last 21 games when playing on the road against Houston. The total has gone over in five of their last six games. Following this trend, the total has gone over in five of their last seven games on the road. 

 Seattle’s offense is not to blame for Tuesday’s loss as they managed 10 hits and six runs against one of the best pitchers in the league in Justin Verlander. There is a chance they do not see that kind of production the rest of this series. Third baseman Eugenio Suarez has had a nice start to the playoffs, going 6-13 with one home run and three RBIs combined throughout the three games. Center fielder Julio Rodriguez struggled in the Wild Card round but bounced back nicely in game one, going 2-4 with two RBIs. During the regular season, the Mariners had a batting average of .230 (27th), on base percentage of .315 (16th), slugging percentage of .390 (17th) and scored 690 runs (18th).  

The Mariners bullpen has given up 17 runs combined over their last two games. This is well above their regular season ERA of 3.59 (8th). Right-handed pitcher Luis Castillo is scheduled to start Thursday. Castillo started the season with the Cincinnati Reds and came to the Mariners at the end of July. While in a Mariners uniform, Castillo went 4-4 SU with an ERA of 2.86 while giving up 63 hits, 27 earned runs, and struck out 90 batters in 85.0 innings. This will be Castillo’s first outing against the Astros this season.  

(Getty Images)


The Astros are 107-56 SU and 86-77 ATS after winning game-one. Houston is 5-1 SU in their last six games and 10-4 SU in their last 14 games at home. The total has gone under in six of their last nine games played in October. Houston is 15-6 SU in their last 21 games at home. 

Game-one was a great showing of what this Astros offense is all about. Never count this team out as they are capable of catching fire at any time. The Left-fielder Jordan Alvarez had a great game-one, going 3-5 with five RBIs and a three-run walk off home run. The first baseman Yuli Gurriel had a productive outing as well, going 3-4 with one home run and one RBI. The Astros had one of the best offenses in the league during the regular season with a batting average of .248 (12th), on base percentage of .319 (7th), slugging percentage of .424 (5th) and scored 737 runs (8th).  

Houston’s bullpen generally does not give up as many runs as they did on Tuesday, but that will happen when your star pitcher has his worst outing of the season. During the regular season, the Astros bullpen allowed opponents a batting average of .212 (2nd), a WHIP of 1.09 (2nd), and team ERA of 2.90 (2nd). The left-hander Framber Valdez is expected to start Thursday. Valdez went 17-6 SU with an ERA of 2.82 and gave up 166 hits, 63 earned runs, and struck out 194 batters in 201.1 innings of work. In his two starts against the Mariners this season, Valdez gave up a combined 13 hits and six runs in 13.2 innings.  


  • SEAJulio Rodriguez - CF (Last Game: 2-4, BB, 2 RBI)
  • SEA: Eugenio Suarez - 3B (Last Game: 2-4, HR, RBI)
  • HOU: Yordan Alvarez - DH (Last Game: 3-5, HR, 5 RBI)
  • HOU: Jose Altuve - 2B (Last Game: 0-4, BB, 2 K)


  • SEA: Luis Castillo - RHP (-)
  • HOU: Framber Valdez - LHP (-)