New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Game 4 Picks, Predictions, Odds

The New York Yankees will take on the Cleveland Guardians Sunday for game-four of the ALDS. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07 PM ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio and can be viewed on TBS.  

Updated on 12/01/2023
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The Yankees now find themselves in a must win situation on Sunday after losing game-three 6-5. The offense had five hits, three home runs, and went 1-2 with runners in scoring position in game-three and have struggled to string hits together throughout the series. Starting pitcher Luis Severino gave up eight hits and three runs in 5.2 innings of work. They were set up with a two-run lead headed into the bottom of the ninth, but Wandy Peralta and Clarke Schmidt blew it, giving up a combined five hits and three runs. Right-handed pitcher Gerrit Cole (13-8, 3.50) is expected to start game-four.  

Cleveland is one win away from the ALCS after taking game-three in dramatic fashion. This team continues to find ways to win and look good on both sides of the ball. The offense finished game-three with 15 hits, six runs, and went 9-17 with runners in scoring position. To put up 15 hits against this Yankees bullpen means the Guardians are playing great baseball at the moment. Starting pitcher Triston McKenzie gave up four hits and four runs in 5.0 innings of work. The other three pitchers used came up clutch, holding the Yankees to a combined one hit and one run in 4.0 innings. The right-hander Cal Quantrill (15-5, 3.38 ERA) is scheduled to start Sunday.  

I like the value in the Guardians moneyline in game-four as they have all the momentum on their side and the home field advantage. Not to mention, they have looked like the much better team in the first three games. Sometimes it is not about who you play but when you play them. Backing the Guardians moneyline here as they are on a roll as of late.  

Score Prediction: Guardians 5, Yankees 3
Best Bet: Guardians ML (+145)


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  • Date: Sunday, October 16, 2022
  • Matchup: AL East vs. AL Central
  • Venue: Progressive Field
  • Location: Cleveland, Ohio
  • Time-TV: 7:07 p.m. ET – TBS
  • Expert Picks


New York is 100-65 SU and 73-92 ATS after losing game-three. The total has gone over in seven of their last 10 games against an American League Central opponent. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in five of their last eight games on the road. The Yankees are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games on the road against Cleveland and 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.  

The Yankees offense is batting .172 at the plate in this series. They have hit six home runs, including three in game-three, but they will have to get some small ball going if they want to come back in this series. Right-fielder Aaron Judge went 1-4 on Saturday with one home run, giving him his first hit of this series. Judge needs to get this offense going as he has been the leader throughout the season. Designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton is on the struggle bus as well, batting 1-9 at the plate.  

New York’s bullpen gave up 15 hits to the Guardians in game-three. All six of Cleveland’s runs came via small ball as they did not have a home run. This is extremely uncharacteristic for this bullpen that dominated throughout the regular season. The right-hander Gerrit Cole will start Sunday. Cole went 13-8 SU this season with an ERA of 3.50 and gave up 154 hits, 78 earned runs, and struck out 257 batters in 200.2 innings of work. Cole started game-one of this series and held the Guardians to four hits and one run in 6.1 innings.  



Cleveland is 96-72 SU and 89-78 ATS after taking game-three. The Guardians have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven games and 5-1 SU in their last six games at home. Going against these trends, Cleveland is 3-8 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against the Yankees. The total has gone over in seven of their last 10 when playing as the underdog. Going against this trend, the total has gone under in five of their last seven against AL East opponent.  

The Guardian’s bats came to work on Saturday with 15 total hits and six runs. A clutch hit by the right-fielder Oscar Gonzalez with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth brought in the game-tying and go-ahead run. The was Gonzalez’s third walk-off hit this postseason. The third baseman Jose Ramirez has also been huge for the Guardians this postseason, batting 8-23 at the plate with one home run and two RBIs. This team will be tough to beat if they can keep up this kind of offensive production.

While McKenzie did not have the best of starts in game-three, the rest of the bullpen pitched very well and kept the Guardians in the game. Their bullpen has pitched great this postseason with a team ERA of 2.40. Right-handed pitcher Quantrill will take the mound Sunday. Quantrill went 15-5 SU with an ERA of 3.38 this season and gave up 178 hits, 70 earned runs, and struck out 128 batters in 186.1 innings. In his game-one start against New York Quantrill gave up four hits and four runs in 5.0 innings of work.  


  • NYYAaron Judge - RF (Last Game: 1-4, HR, R, 2 RBI)
  • NYY: Giancarlo Stanton - DH (Last Game: 0-4)
  • CLE: Jose Ramirez - 3B (Last Game: 3-5)
  • CLE: Amed Rosario - SS (Last Game: 1-5, RBI, R)


  • NYY: Gerrit Cole - RHP (1-0, 1.42 ERA ,0.79 WHIP)
  • CLE: Cal Quantrill - RHP (0-1, 5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP)