Last Updated Nov 05, 2022, 9:29 AM
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies Game 4 Picks, Predictions, Odds
Sports Betting Expert
The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies will meet for Game 4 of the World Series on Wednesday night. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and can be viewed on FOX.
HOUSTON ASTROS vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PREDICTION
The Astros find themselves down in a series for the first time this postseason after losing Game 3 on Tuesday night. The offense had no answers for Philadelphia’s bullpen with just five hits, 0-3 with runners in scoring position, and went scoreless for the first time in these playoffs. Starting pitcher Lance McCullers Jr struggled in front of a rowdy home crowd, giving up six hits and seven runs in 4.1 innings of work. The other two pitchers used held the Phillies to just one hit and zero runs in 3.2 innings. The right-hander Cristian Javier (Postseason: 1-0, 1.35 ERA) is expected to start Game 4.
Philadelphia heads into Game 4 with a little bit of swagger after a dominating 7-0 performance on Tuesday night. Citizens Bank was ready for a show, and they gave them one. The offense finished the day with seven hits, five home runs, seven total runs, and went 0-3 with runners in scoring position. The bullpen was just as good, pitching for a combined shutout. Starting pitcher Ranger Suarez gave up just three hits in 5.0 innings of work. The other four members of the bullpen used gave up a combined two hits in 4.0 innings. Right-handed pitcher Aaron Nola (Postseason: 2-1, 4.57 ERA) is scheduled to start Wednesday.
All the momentum points to the Phillies in Game 4 and it’s not a bad play by any means. However, I think the smart play here is to back the Astros. It’s tough to bet against that home crowd, but Javier has been great as of late allowing just seven hits, one earned run, and 34 strikeouts in his last 28.1 innings pitched. As long as he can keep the crowd out of it, I like the Astros against Nola who they have already seen success against in this series. Backing the Astros moneyline here in Game 4.
Score Prediction: Astros 4, Phillies 3
Best Bet: Astros ML (-105)
HOUSTON ASTROS vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ODDS
HOUSTON ASTROS vs. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING RESOURCES
- Date: Wednesday, November 2, 2022
- Matchup: AL West vs. NL East
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park
- Location: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
- Time-TV: 8:03 p.m. ET – FOX
- Expert Picks
HOUSTON ASTROS ANALYSIS
With two losses in this series the Astros are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS this postseason. The total has gone under in 10 of their last 15 games. Following this trend, the total has gone over in five of their last seven when playing as the favorite. The Astros are 16-4 in their past 20 games on the road and 2-10 in their past 12 games when playing on the road against the Phillies.
Houston’s offense normally finds a way to bring in a run or two, but not in Game 3. Altuve, Bregam, Alvarez, and Pena were a combined 1-14 at the plate. Anytime that happens the Astros chances of winning are not looking good. Throughout the postseason they have a batting average of .225, on base percentage of .297, slugging percentage of .393, and have scored 41 runs. The good news for Houston is they did have six hits and five runs in Game 1 against Aaron Nola. Another similar outing and this team will be right back on track.
The Astros bullpen struggled to say the least in Game 3, but they didn’t overextend so they will have guys to work with for a crucial Game 4. Javier will get the start and need to keep the crowd out of it early. He was great throughout the regular season with an ERA of 2.70 and has been solid this postseason with an ERA of 1.35 in 6.2 innings of work. In his most recent start against the Yankees in the ALCS, Javier held the pinstripes to one hit and zero runs in 5.1 innings of work. If he can manage to keep the crowd out of it, he should set his offense up for success.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING ANALYSIS
The red-hot Phillies are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in these playoffs. The total has gone under in six of their last eight home games played on a Wednesday. Going against this trend, the total has gone over in six of their last 10 games. The Phillies are 6-0 in their last six home games and 10-2 in their last 12 games when playing at home against Houston.
Philadelphia’s offense had a whopping five home runs Tuesday night. Harper, Schwarber, Hoskins, Marsh, and Bohm all got in on the fun. I would not expect the same success against Javier, but who knows what this team can do in front of their home crowd. Throughout the postseason the Phillies have a batting average of .233, on base percentage of .304, slugging percentage of .443, and have scored 72 runs. If this train keeps rolling in Game 4 it could end up being a gentleman's sweep in favor of the Phillies.
The Phillies bullpen managed their third shutout of the postseason on Tuesday night and did not have to use Dominguez or Alvarado in the process of doing so. Nola will take the mound in Game 4 and look to get things right after struggling in back-to-back postseason starts. In his most recent Game 1 outing of this series, Nola allowed six hits and five runs in 4.1 innings of work. He’ll have the home crowd on his side this time, but this Astros team is going to be itching to score Wednesday night.
- PHI: Bryce Harper - DH (Last Game: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI)
- PHI: Kyle Schwarber - OF (Last Game: 1-3, HR, BB, 2 RBI)
- HOU: Jose Altuve - IF (Last Game: 0-4)
- HOU: Alex Bregman - 3B (Last Game: 0-3, BB)
- HOU: Cristian Javier - RHP
- PHI: Aaron Nola - RHP