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Bears vs Commanders Picks, Predictions, Odds | Thursday Night Football Week 5

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

Week 5 of the 2023 NFL regular season kicks things off with Thursday Night Football between the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders. Coverage begins from FedExField in Landover Maryland at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.

Here's everything you need to know about the Bears vs Commanders Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 5.

Bears vs Commanders Picks, Betting Prediction & Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 5

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, the spread for this Thursday night matchup opened at Commanders -6 on Sunday night, and as of Wednesday afternoon, we still haven’t seen much movement from that number as most shops still sit somewhere in the range of Commanders -5.5 and -6.

In regards to overall expectation level, the Commanders are riding surprisingly high with a record of 2-2 as they enter Thursday coming off a near upset win over the Eagles in Philly. So now, Washington finds itself listed as a six-point favorite over Chicago, already marking the second time the Commanders have been favored by six points this season, despite being favored by 6+ in a grand total of zero matchups last year, and just once the year before that.

Back in Week 1, the Commanders were six-point home favorites over Arizona, and never even truly threatened to cover the spread, as they went to the fourth quarter trailing the Cardinals by a score of 16-10 before rallying from behind to escape with a narrow four-point victory down the stretch; and since then, they’ve been tagged as underdogs of 3.5 points or more in three straight matchups against Denver, Buffalo, and Philly.

While on the opposite side of the spectrum, Chicago was surrounded by a healthy amount of hype all offseason, but after blowing a 21-point lead in the second half against Denver, the Bears have officially hit rock bottom as they sit 0-4 entering Week 5.

There’s no denying the fact that the Bears have been one of the worst teams in football through the first four weeks of the season, but are they really six points worse than Washington? Quite frankly, I don’t think the Commanders are good enough to be favored by a touchdown over any NFL team.

The Bears currently rank 22nd in points scored at 18.8 PPG and 31st in points allowed at 34.4 PPG, which is truly awful. But not too far ahead of them in both departments, you’ll find the Commanders ranked 17th in points scored at 22.2 PPG and 29th in points allowed at 30 PPG. Since the start of last season, Washington has won a total of 10 games, and only two of those wins have come by seven points or more.

After falling short of the 21-point mark in three straight games out of the gate, the Bears offense finally got the wheels churning with 28 points on 471 total yards in a gut-wrenching loss to Denver last Sunday. But this play isn’t about my trust in Chicago, it’s more about my hesitancy regarding a Washington squad that’s turned the ball over eight times through the first four weeks of the season, and had their defense shredded for 33+ points on 385+ total yards in three straight contests. Any way you slice it, these teams both stink. Pinch your nose and take the touchdown with Chicago.

Score Prediction: Bears 26, Commanders 23
Best Bet: Bears +6 (-110)

CHI @ WAS Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
+5.5 -110 +3.5 -115 +3.5 -110 +3.5 -118 +3.5 -110 +3.5 -110 +2.5 +112 +6 -115  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
-5.5 -110 -3.5 -105 -3.5 -110 -3.5 -102 -3.5 -110 -3.5 -110 -2.5 -143 -6 -105  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
o42.5 -110 o21.5 -105 o21.5 -105 o21.5 -108 o21.5 even o22.5 -105 o21.5 -110 o44.5 -115  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
u42.5 -110 u21.5 -115 u21.5 -115 u21.5 -112 u21.5 -120 u22.5 -115 u21.5 -114 u44.5 -105  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
+200 +175 +170 +164 +175 +158 +155 +205  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
-245 -210 -210 -198 -210 -194 -215 -255  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
+5.5 -110 +3.5 -120 N/A N/A +3 -110 +2.5 even +2.5 -104 +6 -115  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
-5.5 -110 -3.5 even N/A N/A -3 -110 -2.5 -120 -2.5 -121 -6 -105  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
o42.5 -110 o22.5 -105 N/A N/A o23.5 -110 o22.5 -110 o22.5 -124 o44.5 -115  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
u42.5 -110 u22.5 -115 N/A N/A u23.5 -110 u22.5 -110 u22.5 even u44.5 -105  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
+200 +165 N/A N/A N/A +150 +145 +205  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
-245 -185 N/A N/A N/A -178 -182 -255  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
+5.5 -110 +0.5 -105 +2.5 -120 +0.5 -108 +0.5 -120 +1.5 -120 +1.5 -114 +6 -115  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
-5.5 -110 -0.5 -115 -2.5 -115 -0.5 -112 -0.5 even -1.5 -102 -1.5 -109 -6 -105  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
o42.5 -110 o7.5 -110 o7.5 -110 o8.5 -112 o7.5 -110 o7.5 -118 o7.5 -112 o44.5 -115  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
u42.5 -110 u7.5 -110 u7.5 -115 u8.5 -108 u7.5 -110 u7.5 -104 u7.5 -112 u44.5 -105  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
+200 +150 +150 +145 +150 +140 +155 +205  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
-245 -170 -200 -175 -178 -172 -200 -255  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
+5.5 -110 +1.5 -110 N/A -6.5 -140 N/A +2.5 -108 N/A +6 -115  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
-5.5 -110 -1.5 -110 N/A +6.5 +110 N/A -2.5 -112 N/A -6 -105  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
o42.5 -110 o13.5 -110 N/A o16.5 -125 N/A o17.5 +106 N/A o44.5 -115  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
u42.5 -110 u13.5 -110 N/A u16.5 -105 N/A u17.5 -140 N/A u44.5 -105  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
+200 +150 N/A +145 N/A +142 N/A +205  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
-245 -170 N/A -175 N/A -166 N/A -255  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
+5.5 -110 +1.5 -115 N/A +1.5 -115 N/A +1.5 -124 N/A +6 -115  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
-5.5 -110 -1.5 -105 N/A -1.5 -105 N/A -1.5 +102 N/A -6 -105  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
o42.5 -110 o8.5 -115 N/A o9.5 -120 N/A o11.5 -112 N/A o44.5 -115  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
u42.5 -110 u8.5 -105 N/A u9.5 even N/A u11.5 -118 N/A u44.5 -105  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
+200 +145 N/A +154 N/A +146 N/A +205  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
-245 -165 N/A -185 N/A -172 N/A -255  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
+5.5 -110 +0.5 -105 N/A +1.5 -108 N/A +1.5 -128 N/A +6 -115  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
-5.5 -110 -0.5 -115 N/A -1.5 -112 N/A -1.5 +104 N/A -6 -105  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
o42.5 -110 o12.5 -125 N/A o13.5 -108 N/A o13.5 -106 N/A o44.5 -115  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
u42.5 -110 u12.5 +105 N/A u13.5 -112 N/A u13.5 -116 N/A u44.5 -105  
Final
Chicago Bears 305 Bears
+200 +130 N/A +142 N/A +124 N/A +205  
Washington Commanders 306 Commanders
-245 -150 N/A -170 N/A -146 N/A -255  

Bears vs Commanders Betting Resources

Date: Thursday, October 5, 2023
Matchup: NFC North vs NFC East
Venue: FedExField
Location: Landover, Maryland
Time-TV: Amazon Prime Video, 8:15 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 5 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Chicago Bears Betting Analysis

At this point, betting on the Bears isn’t exactly the most intriguing notion under any set of circumstances. But all things considered, this feels like a great bounce back spot for them, especially receiving a handful of points against another struggling defense.

The current iteration of this Chicago offense has certainly had some moments where the future looked somewhat bright, despite closing their previous campaign on a 1-10 skid. 

The Bears generated 365+ yards of total offense in 6-of-10 games started by Justin Fields down the stretch of last season, and while they haven’t lived up to that lofty potential quite yet, Chicago’s offense is off to a much stronger start than the numbers they posted out of the gate last year, highlighted by the Bears averaging just 16 PPG on 275 total yards through Week 4 of last season, as opposed to the 19.2 PPG and 305 yards that they are averaging at the moment.

Chicago’s defense is certainly a concern. They’ve surrendered 27+ points in four straight contests to open the season. But push comes to shove, the Commanders are probably going to need to score a boatload of points to cover a touchdown spread here. At the very least, this play should remain within striking distance deep into the contest.

bears-commanders-thursday-night-football-week-5
The Bears are 0-14 SU in their last 14 games. (Getty)

Washington Commanders Betting Analysis

To tell you the truth, I’m not really sure what to think about Washington through the first four weeks of the season, however, when it’s all said and done, I strongly believe that the Commanders will finish comfortably below the .500-mark.

The Commanders offense looked great against Denver and Philly, racking up 31+ points on 365+ total yards while managing to keep a clean sheet in the turnover department in both affairs. But they also looked terrible against Arizona and Buffalo, scoring 20 points or less and turning the ball over eight times in their other two contests.

However, as they move forward with a record of 2-2, with their only two losses coming against truly formidable opponents in the Eagles and Bills, the Commanders are currently being valued as a .500 team in this matchup at a price tag of -6. So, just based on principle, I’ll be the guy shaking his fist at the spread crying “too many points!” Give me the road dog on Thursday night.

Bears vs Commanders Betting Trends

  • The Bears are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of Chicago's last 15 games.
  • The Bears are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games.
  • The Commanders are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington's last 19 games.
  • The Bears are 1-8 SU in their last nine games against Washington.
  • The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
  • The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against Washington.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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