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Buccaneers vs Bills Picks, Predictions, Odds | Thursday Night Football Week 8

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read

Week 8 of the NFL season kicks things off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between a pair of three-loss teams as the Buffalo Bills host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Coverage begins from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.

Here's everything you need to know about the Buccaneers vs. Bills Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 8, and use our BetMGM bonus code to get the most out of your action.

Buccaneers vs Bills Picks, Betting Prediction & Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 8

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

Josh Allen and the Bills were on top of the world entering Week 5. Buffalo effortlessly bounced back from a loss to the Jets in its season opener with three straight blowout victories by 28+ point margins over the Raiders, Commanders, and Dolphins to climb to a confident 3-1 mark prior to a trip to London to face Jacksonville.

However, there’s no other way to put it: Buffalo’s offense has been awful since Week 5. The Bills have lost two of their last three games, and their only win during that span came by a score of 14-9 over Tyrod Taylor and the Giants. They averaged just 19.7 points per game and turned the ball over six times in those three contests, resulting in a pair of frustrating losses to the Jaguars and Patriots to fall to 4-3 entering this week.

However, Buffalo’s recent cold spell doesn’t appear to be scaring away any bettors. According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, the SuperBook closed the lookahead line for this contest at Bills -9 prior to Week 7 kickoff, and then reopened at -7.5 on Sunday night following Buffalo’s 29-25 loss to New England. SuperBook senior risk advisor Casey Degnon said, “I think the tickets and money will slightly favor the Bills on straight bets. Then once you add parlays and teasers to the equation, we'll be rooting for Tampa come Thursday night.”

The most exciting aspect of the Bills’ three-game win streak was the unexpected revelation of their rushing attack, plus an even bigger surprise, their impeccable ball security during that stretch. Their offense averaged 152 rushing yards per game and turned the ball over just once in those three contests. And likewise, they rushed for 128 yards in their win over the Giants. However, they completely abandoned that approach in their losses. The Bills averaged just 69 rushing yards on 20 attempts per game to go along with eight turnovers in their three defeats.

This Buffalo team is notoriously tough to figure out. But so far this season, the formula seems rather simple. The Bills’ recipe for success has been running the ball and avoiding turnovers. The Bills have rushed for 100+ yards in all four of their wins, and they’ve fallen short of that benchmark in all three of their losses. On a similar note, they turned the ball over just three times in their four wins, and they had eight turnovers in their four losses. 

This week, Buffalo draws a matchup against a Buccaneers defensive unit that has held the opposing ground game to less than 75 rushing yards in four of six contests, and they enter the week tied for second in the entire league in takeaways per game with 13 forced turnovers on the season. I’d advise Bills bettors to tread with caution. This could be another shaky outing for Buffalo’s offense. 

That said, I certainly don’t trust Baker Mayfield and the Bucs’ offense either. After jumping out to an impressive 2-0 start, the Buccaneers have now scored 13 points or less in three of their last four games. According to Action Network's Evan Abrams, first half unders are 24-15-1 on Thursday Night Football since 2021. The Bills have scored seven points or less in the first half of three straight contests. Give me the first half under on Thursday night.

Score Prediction: Bills 20, Buccaneers 16
Best Bet: First Half Total - Under 21 (-110)

TB @ BUF Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
+8.5 -110 +6 -105 +6 even +5.5 even +6 -120 +6.5 -110 +5.5 -104 +10 -114  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
-8.5 -110 -6 -115 -6 -120 -5.5 -120 -6 even -6.5 -110 -5.5 -121 -10 -106  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
o42.5 -115 o21.5 -110 o21.5 -105 o21.5 -102 o21.5 +110 o21.5 even o21.5 -107 o43.5 -104  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
u42.5 -105 u21.5 -110 u21.5 -115 u21.5 -118 u21.5 -130 u21.5 -120 u21.5 -120 u43.5 -118  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
+340 +260 +260 +250 +250 +245 +230 +385  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
-430 -320 -350 -310 -320 -320 -315 -500  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
+8.5 -110 +3.5 even N/A N/A +5.5 -115 +4.5 -110 +5.5 -113 +10 -114  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
-8.5 -110 -3.5 -120 N/A N/A -5.5 -105 -4.5 -110 -5.5 -110 -10 -106  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
o42.5 -115 o20.5 -110 N/A N/A o20.5 -120 o20.5 -115 o20.5 -124 o43.5 -104  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
u42.5 -105 u20.5 -110 N/A N/A u20.5 even u20.5 -105 u20.5 -104 u43.5 -118  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
+340 +200 N/A N/A N/A +215 +220 +385  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
-430 -240 N/A N/A N/A -270 -286 -500  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
+8.5 -110 +3 -120 +2.5 +105 +2.5 +102 +2.5 +105 +2.5 +106 +2.5 +110 +10 -114  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
-8.5 -110 -3 even -2.5 -140 -2.5 -122 -2.5 -125 -2.5 -128 -2.5 -137 -10 -106  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
o42.5 -115 o7.5 +105 o7.5 -105 o7.5 +105 o7.5 +105 o7.5 +108 o7.5 -107 o43.5 -104  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
u42.5 -105 u7.5 -125 u7.5 -125 u7.5 -125 u7.5 -125 u7.5 -132 u7.5 -117 u43.5 -118  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
+340 +215 +200 +205 +196 +205 +210 +385  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
-430 -260 -275 -250 -240 -260 -275 -500  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
+8.5 -110 +2.5 -105 N/A +0.5 -110 N/A +3.5 -116 N/A +10 -114  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
-8.5 -110 -2.5 -115 N/A -0.5 -120 N/A -3.5 -106 N/A -10 -106  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
o42.5 -115 o13.5 +110 N/A o24.5 +130 N/A o13.5 -106 N/A o43.5 -104  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
u42.5 -105 u13.5 -130 N/A u24.5 -166 N/A u13.5 -116 N/A u43.5 -118  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
+340 +170 N/A +235 N/A +180 N/A +385  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
-430 -200 N/A -290 N/A -215 N/A -500  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
+8.5 -110 +2.5 -105 N/A +3.5 -130 N/A +2.5 even N/A +10 -114  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
-8.5 -110 -2.5 -115 N/A -3.5 +110 N/A -2.5 -122 N/A -10 -106  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
o42.5 -115 o8.5 -110 N/A o8.5 -112 N/A o8.5 -112 N/A o43.5 -104  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
u42.5 -105 u8.5 -110 N/A u8.5 -108 N/A u8.5 -108 N/A u43.5 -118  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
+340 +170 N/A +215 N/A +186 N/A +385  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
-430 -200 N/A -265 N/A -225 N/A -500  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
+8.5 -110 +2.5 +105 N/A +2.5 -102 N/A +2.5 +104 N/A +10 -114  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
-8.5 -110 -2.5 -125 N/A -2.5 -118 N/A -2.5 -128 N/A -10 -106  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
o42.5 -115 o10.5 -105 N/A o11.5 -112 N/A o11.5 -108 N/A o43.5 -104  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
u42.5 -105 u10.5 -115 N/A u11.5 -108 N/A u11.5 -114 N/A u43.5 -118  
Final
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 109 Buccaneers
+340 +175 N/A +180 N/A +184 N/A +385  
Buffalo Bills 110 Bills
-430 -210 N/A -218 N/A -220 N/A -500  

Buccaneers vs Bills Betting Resources

Date: Thursday, October 26, 2023
Matchup: NFC South vs AFC East
Venue: Highmark Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, New York
Time-TV: Amazon Prime Video, 8:15 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 8 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis

Tom Brady received a ton of credit for the success of this Buccaneers team over the last few years, and rightfully so. But in the aftermath of Brady’s retirement, Tampa Bay has quickly reminded us that much of its success sprouted from the combination of a first-ballot Hall of Fame QB and elite defensive play – and while the Hall of Fame QB may be gone, the elite defense mostly remains intact.

The Buccaneers defense has held the opposing team to 20 points or less in five of six matchups this season, and the only team to clear that number was the Eagles, who mustered together 25 points. Maybe we’ll see Buffalo run away with this one down the stretch. But at the very least, I expect Tampa Bay’s defense to have a solid game plan for containing Allen in the early goings.

The total has gone UNDER in six of Tampa Bay's last seven games. (Getty)

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

Betting the under in Bills’ games is always a slippery slope. Buffalo has scored 37+ points in three of seven contests this season, and an explosion of that magnitude looms as a possibility heading into any matchup. However, despite drawing matchups against the Eagles, Lions, and Vikings, Tampa’s defense has smothered its opponent to 20 points or less in five of six contests, with Philly dealing the most damage so far at a total of 25 points.

At some point, the Bills will inevitably bounce back and blow the roof off against an opposing defense, or maybe even a few defenses in a row, and everybody will talk about how great Buffalo’s offense is when everything goes right. However, I don’t expect to be having those conversations after this week. The Bills draw Cincy and Denver in their next two matchups, which strikes me as a nice bounce back spot for their offense. But yet again, the wind will almost surely be taken out of their sail by the three-game stretch that follows against Philly, Kansas City, and Dallas.

Push comes to shove, I think Buffalo wins this game returning home on a short week after a tough loss at New England. However, be mindful of the fact that Tampa Bay’s defense will arguably be the best defensive unit that the Bills have faced so far this season. I think it will take some time for both sides to get the wheels churning on offense this Thursday.

Buccaneers vs Bills Betting Trends

  • The Buccaneers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of Tampa Bay's last seven games.
  • The Bills are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Bills are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games.
  • The Bills are 15-3 SU in their last 18 home games.
  • The Buccaneers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games against Buffalo.
  • The Buccaneers are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games against Buffalo.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of Tampa Bay's last 10 road games.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Buffalo's last six games against Tampa Bay.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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