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Chiefs vs Jets Picks, Predictions, Odds | Sunday Night Football Week 4

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

The fourth Sunday of regular season NFL action concludes with what’s expected to be a lopsided AFC clash between the Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets. Coverage begins from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

Here's everything you need to know about the Chiefs vs. Jets Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Sunday Night Football Week 4.

Chiefs vs Jets Picks, Betting Prediction & Odds for Sunday Night Football Week 4

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

Prior to Aaron Rodgers’ season-ending injury in Week 1, the wide majority of football fans had this matchup circled on their calendar as must-see TV, and one of the best primetime games on the entire slate, with the reigning Super Bowl champs hitting the road to face a newly reinvigorated Jets squad. However, with Zach Wilson back at QB for the Jets now, oddsmakers and bettors, alike, seem to believe that Taylor Swift will be the star of the show by the time the second half rolls around in a blowout on Sunday night.

According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, the line for this contest opened at Chiefs -8 at BetMGM, and was bet all the way up to -9.5 early in the week before settling around -8.5 on Thursday. He noted that the action was thoroughly one-sided heading into the weekend. As of Friday afternoon, Kansas City was attracting 93% of spread tickets and 95% of spread cash. In fact, at BetMGM, the Chiefs had taken the most spread tickets and most spread money of any team on the NFL Week 4 odds board, at the time of reporting.

On paper, this should be an easy win for Kansas City. In the aftermath of New York’s miraculous 22-16 win over the Bills in Week 1, the Jets have now scored 10 points on 215 total yards in less in back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Patriots, and things certainly won’t get any easier this week against a Chiefs offense that hasn’t fallen short of the 17-point scoring mark since November 2021.

That said, Kansas City is somewhat notorious for playing down to the level of its opponent in lopsided matchups like this, highlighted by the Chiefs record of 32-38-1 ATS in their last 71 contests in which they were favored by 3.5 points or more, and a record of 10-13-1 ATS in their last 24 games when favored by 10 points or more. Also note, Patrick Mahomes is just 5-12 ATS in his last 17 starts following a SU win.

New York’s offense isn’t going to light up the scoreboard, though. The Jets’ only shot at competing in this matchup is by turning this into an ugly, low-scoring battle, which isn’t too difficult to fathom. The Chiefs scored 20 points or less in back-to-back contests to open the season before erupting for 41 against Chicago. And the Jets’ defense managed to hold the Bills to 16 and the Patriots to 15. But they also got shredded by the Cowboys for 30 points on 382 total yards.

All things considered, I’m not quite sure if this Jets’ defense is “elite” per se, but I do think they are very good; and quite frankly, if they can prevent the Chiefs from breaking 30 points, the ‘under’ should be in business on Sunday night.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Jets 13
Best Bet: Under 41.5 (-110)

KC @ NYJ Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
-7.5 -110 -6 -105 -5.5 -115 -6.5 -108 -6 -110 -4.5 -110 -4.5 -124 -7.5 -110  
New York Jets 278 Jets
+7.5 -110 +6 -115 +5.5 -105 +6.5 -112 +6 -110 +4.5 -110 +4.5 -105 +7.5 -110  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
o44.5 -110 o20.5 -120 o20.5 -115 o20.5 -108 o20.5 -115 o20.5 -115 o21.5 -109 o41.5 -110  
New York Jets 278 Jets
u44.5 -110 u20.5 even u20.5 -105 u20.5 -112 u20.5 -105 u20.5 -105 u21.5 -114 u41.5 -110  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
-340 -280 -275 -325 -285 -270 -286 -390  
New York Jets 278 Jets
+275 +230 +220 +260 +228 +205 +210 +310  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
-7.5 -110 -1.5 -115 N/A N/A -3.5 -115 -3.5 -110 -3.5 -114 -7.5 -110  
New York Jets 278 Jets
+7.5 -110 +1.5 -105 N/A N/A +3.5 -105 +3.5 -110 +3.5 -109 +7.5 -110  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
o44.5 -110 o20.5 -115 N/A N/A o20.5 +105 o20.5 even o20.5 +102 o41.5 -110  
New York Jets 278 Jets
u44.5 -110 u20.5 -105 N/A N/A u20.5 -125 u20.5 -120 u20.5 -125 u41.5 -110  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
-340 -145 N/A N/A N/A -220 -215 -390  
New York Jets 278 Jets
+275 +125 N/A N/A N/A +182 +170 +310  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
-7.5 -110 -2.5 -115 -2.5 -125 N/A -2.5 -115 -1.5 -110 -2.5 -120 -7.5 -110  
New York Jets 278 Jets
+7.5 -110 +2.5 -105 +2.5 -105 N/A +2.5 -105 +1.5 -110 +2.5 -104 +7.5 -110  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
o44.5 -110 o7.5 even o7.5 even N/A o7.5 even o7.5 even o7.5 -103 o41.5 -110  
New York Jets 278 Jets
u44.5 -110 u7.5 -120 u7.5 -130 N/A u7.5 -120 u7.5 -122 u7.5 -122 u41.5 -110  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
-340 -220 -225 N/A -210 -200 -230 -390  
New York Jets 278 Jets
+275 +180 +165 N/A +175 +160 +180 +310  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
-7.5 -110 -3.5 -115 N/A N/A N/A -2.5 -150 N/A -7.5 -110  
New York Jets 278 Jets
+7.5 -110 +3.5 -105 N/A N/A N/A +2.5 +124 N/A +7.5 -110  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
o44.5 -110 o13 even N/A N/A N/A o15.5 -110 N/A o41.5 -110  
New York Jets 278 Jets
u44.5 -110 u13 -120 N/A N/A N/A u15.5 -122 N/A u41.5 -110  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
-340 -250 N/A N/A N/A -215 N/A -390  
New York Jets 278 Jets
+275 +210 N/A N/A N/A +180 N/A +310  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
-7.5 -110 -2.5 -110 N/A N/A N/A -1.5 -110 N/A -7.5 -110  
New York Jets 278 Jets
+7.5 -110 +2.5 -110 N/A N/A N/A +1.5 -110 N/A +7.5 -110  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
o44.5 -110 o7.5 -105 N/A N/A N/A o11.5 +104 N/A o41.5 -110  
New York Jets 278 Jets
u44.5 -110 u7.5 -115 N/A N/A N/A u11.5 -138 N/A u41.5 -110  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
-340 -210 N/A N/A N/A -174 N/A -390  
New York Jets 278 Jets
+275 +175 N/A N/A N/A +148 N/A +310  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
-7.5 -110 -2.5 -110 N/A N/A N/A -1.5 -110 N/A -7.5 -110  
New York Jets 278 Jets
+7.5 -110 +2.5 -110 N/A N/A N/A +1.5 -110 N/A +7.5 -110  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
o44.5 -110 o11.5 -110 N/A N/A N/A o10.5 -108 N/A o41.5 -110  
New York Jets 278 Jets
u44.5 -110 u11.5 -110 N/A N/A N/A u10.5 -112 N/A u41.5 -110  
Final
Kansas City Chiefs 277 Chiefs
-340 -200 N/A N/A N/A -164 N/A -390  
New York Jets 278 Jets
+275 +170 N/A N/A N/A +140 N/A +310  

Chiefs vs Jets Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, October 1, 2023
Matchup: AFC West vs AFC East
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, New Jersey
Time-TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 4 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

Everybody loves to talk about Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ high-flying offense, but truth be told, Kansas City’s defense is the main reason that this team sits at 2-1 through the first three weeks of the season. 

The Chiefs’ defense has surrendered 21 points or less in three straight matchups out of the gate against the Lions, Jaguars, and Bears – currently ranked fourth in scoring 13.3 points allowed per game. 

While on the other side of that same coin, the Chiefs offense has been a bit of a mess, at least by Kansas City standards, ranked just ninth in scoring through the first three weeks of the season at 26 PPG. However, that number is significantly inflated by a 41-point outburst against Chicago, as they fell short of the 21-point mark in their oher two outings.

chiefs-jets-sunday-night-football-week-4
The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Jets' last eight games. (Getty)

New York Jets Betting Analysis

If the Jets manage to hang around in this contest and threaten a backdoor cover, I highly doubt it will be because New York’s offense bounces back with a solid performance against a Chiefs defensive unit that has surrendered 21 points or less in three straight matchups to open the season.

No, the only way the Jets stay in this game is by posting a brilliant defensive effort, and while surely, the Chiefs are capable of exploding for 30+ points in any given contest, the Jets’ defense has held their opponent to 10 points or less on sub-275 total yards in back-to-back games and forced three turnovers since the injury to Rodgers.

When your offense is averaging a league-worst 14 points on 225 yards per game, there’s only one way to win football games. Expect the Jets defense to play with a sense of urgency again on Sunday night, just like they did in their previous two affairs.

Chiefs vs Jets Betting Trends

  • The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
  • The Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Jets' last eight games.
  • The Jets are 1-8 SU in their last nine games.
  • The Chiefs are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games.
  • The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Jets.
  • The Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last five road games.
  • The Jets are 5-1 SU in their last six home games against Kansas City.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of Kansas City's last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Jets' last seven home games.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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