Cowboys vs Giants Picks, Predictions, Odds | Sunday Night Football Week 1

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

The first Sunday of regular season NFL action concludes with what has the makings of a very meaningful matchup in the NFC East between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys. Coverage begins from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

Here's everything you need to know about the Cowboys vs Giants Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Sunday Night Football Week 1.

Cowboys vs Giants Picks, Betting Prediction, Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 1

New York’s success was one of the biggest surprises in the league last season, as well as one of the most profitable ventures, as the Giants managed to follow up a miserable 4-13 campaign in 2021 with a solid 9-7-1 finish in 2022, while punching a ticket to the playoffs, and earning Brian Daboll Coach of the Year honors along the way.

Nobody believed in this New York team heading into last year, and many bettors continued to doubt them as the season progressed. The Giants were tagged as underdogs in 12 of 17 regular season matchups, and managed to rumble to a record of 10-2 ATS and 6-5-1 SU in those contests – forcing the doubters to choke on their words the subsequent offseason, and show the G-Men some respect this time around.

Unfortunately, I was one of those wrongful people last year. But unlike many analysts that have quickly changed their stance on New York heading into this season, I’m going to be the guy that continues to be a doubter and a non-believer when it comes to this Giants team.

The NFC East schedule was atrocious last season, leading to all four teams posting a record north of .500, and as a whole, the division combining for the most wins in the entire league (43). The Giants were huge benefactors of that notion. New York only faced two 10-win teams outside of the division last year, and not overly impressive 10-win teams either, yielding a 1-1 split against Baltimore and Seattle.

Personally, I’m choosing to measure the success of last year’s Giants team by how they fared in division matchups – or at the very least, those numbers peak my interest the most when it comes to predicting the outcome of this primetime divisional game.

The Giants went 1-4-1 against their NFC East rivals last season (straight-up), which included an ugly 0-4 mark to go along with a -47 point differential against the top dogs in Philly and Dallas, as well as a disappointing 0-1-1 ledger against the division bottom dweller in Washington.

The Giants are 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS in matchups against Dallas started by Dak Prescott (all-time), and they’ve lost 10 of their last 11 meetings with the Cowboys, overall. On top of that, Daniel Jones has become notorious for his struggles in primetime, especially at home. The Giants are 1-10 SU in primetime matchups started by Jones (all-time), which includes an 0-4 mark at home.

To be clear, though, I’m not particularly thrilled about Dallas this year either. The departure of Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator is a devastating blow, and it’s tough to trust Prescott after throwing 15 interceptions in just 12 games last season. But push comes to shove, the Cowboys are the far better team in this matchup, and all things equal, I expect them to win this one with relative ease.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Giants 17
Best Bet: Cowboys -3.5 (-105)

Cowboys vs Giants Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, September 10, 2023
Matchup: NFC East
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, New Jersey
Time-TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 1 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

Brian Daboll was awarded Coach of the Year honors last year for taking a 4-10 Giants team to 9-7-1 in his first NFL season, marking the first time the honors were awarded to a coach with less than 10 wins since Jimmy Johnson won it for Dallas back in 1990.

Make no mistake about it, Daboll did an incredible job with the hand he was dealt. But in my opinion, a few candidates were clearly shortchanged in that department –  including Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy. 

The Cowboys’ season appeared to be doomed when Prescott went down with an injury in Week 1 last year, but lo and behold, the Cowboys managed to rumble to a 4-1 record with Cooper Rush under center, successfully straightening the ship so Dak and co. could sail to a 12-5 record down the stretch.

The Cowboys have an elite defense, and while the departure of their offensive coordinator may sting a little bit, I expect to see McCarthy try to revert Dak back to more of a game manager like he was during his early days in the league, and lean on their run game more - and if  that’s the case, that certainly doesn’t bode well for a Giants defensive unit that ranked 31st in yards allowed per rush attempt last season (5.3 YPC).

New York Giants Betting Analysis

The Giants didn’t exactly jump off the tv screen on either side of the ball last year, as they ranked outside of the Top 15 in scoring on both offense and defense, but their production was consistent enough to beat the majority of the teams on their treacherous schedule and claim a wild card spot.

The strongest argument on New York’s behalf, though, is the fact that the Giants managed to go on the road and win a playoff game against Minnesota. The Vikings were another team that the football community was locked onto as being “fraudulent” throughout last season, and hypothetically, if the Giants got rolled in that game, we would be having a much different conversation about this New York squad.

But instead, we’re looking at a 9-7-1 Giants team that has an “impressive” playoff win under its belt. They signed Daniel Jones to a big extension over the offseason and added a flashy new pass-catcher to their offense in Darren Waller. 

Personally, I’m still not a believer in this New York team. I need to see more. I’m laying the points with Dallas in this one, and I’ll probably flirt with some alternate lines at plus money as well.

Cowboys vs Giants Betting Trends

• The total has gone UNDER in four of Dallas' last five games.
• The Cowboys are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games.
• The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
• The Giants are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
• The Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against Dallas.
• The Cowboys are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against the Giants.
• The Cowboys are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games against the Giants.
• The total has gone UNDER in five of Dallas' last six road games.
• The total has gone OVER in seven of the last nine matchups between Dallas and New York.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson