Dolphins vs Patriots Picks, Predictions, Odds | Sunday Night Football Week 2

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

The second Sunday of the NFL regular season concludes with a primetime AFC East clash between the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots. Coverage begins from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

Here's everything you need to know about the Dolphins vs. Patriots Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Sunday Night Football Week 2.

Dolphins vs Patriots Picks, Betting Prediction, Odds for Sunday Night Football Week 2

According to VegasInsider's Patrick Everson, Miami originally opened as a 2.5-point favorite in this contest, and the public is all over the Dolphins, moving that number to Miami -3 at most shops. As of Friday, BetMGM reported that roughly 60% of the spread tickets placed were on the Dolphins. Trading team leader Seamus Magee also noted that Miami moneyline is shaping out to be a significant parlay liability.

As an overly skeptical bettor, I tend to fade the public in primetime spots. But as the football fan that just watched these two teams play last Sunday, and having gone back-and-forth on this decision all week, I would say, “don’t overthink this one.”

The Dolphins offense looked absolutely unstoppable in Week 1, aside from a few miscues. For those who missed the show, Tua Tagovailoa and company erupted for 536 total yards in a thrilling 36-34 road win over the Chargers in their season opener, while scoring on 7-of-10 offensive drives and punting just once (two turnovers).

Granted, Miami’s defense didn’t look great in Week 1, as they surrendered 34 points on 433 total yards to Justin Herbert and company. However, the Dolphins have a much easier task at hand this week as they draw a New England offense that ranked 17th in scoring and 19th in yards per play last year, and then scored just 20 points in a home loss to Philly in Week 1 of this season.

On paper, New England’s Week 1 result may seem promising. The Patriots managed to outgain Philly by 131 yards last week, and in theory, if you take away Mac Jones’ fluky pick-six in the first quarter, New England wins that contest by a score of 20-19. However, let’s not pretend the Patriots offense looked great in Week 1. 

The Patriots had just three scoring drives against Philly, despite starting 5-of-13 offensive drives north of their own 40-yard line. On the ground, they averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, and in hindsight, I feel much worse about that effort after seeing Philly’s defense get shredded for 21 points in the second half of Thursday’s contest.

Bill Belichick still hasn’t lost a step as a defensive mastermind. The Patriots defense is really good, and we saw glimpses of that in Week 1 against an elite offense. So, if anybody can figure out how to slow down the Dolphins’ electric passing attack, it’s probably Belichick. That said, even if they manage to limit Tyreek Hill and company, I still don’t trust the Patriots offense to push them over the edge in this one.

The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS against New England in games quarterbacked by Tagovailoa. Following last week’s loss, the Patriots are now 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a home underdog. I’m laying the points with Miami on Sunday night.

Score Prediction: Dolphins 28, Patriots 20
Best Bet: Dolphins -2.5 (-120)

Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, September 17, 2023
Matchup: AFC East
Venue: Gillette Stadium
Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
Time-TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 2 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Miami Dolphins Betting Analysis

We can sit here and debate who’s the best wide receiver in the league all day, but there’s little-to-no argument about which wide out is the biggest headache to design a game plan against – and that’s Tyreek Hill.

As a defense, if you don’t have an air tight strategy in place, plus a gallery of backup plans, Hill can completely blow the top off of a game, and that’s exactly what he did in Week 1, as he hauled in 11-of-15 targets for 215 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a very competitive contest with the Chargers.

I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance from Hill against New England in Week 2, though. Bill Belichick is the king of taking away teams’ biggest strengths, and rest assured, if the Patriots defense gets scorched in this contest, it won’t be because Hill goes off for 200+ yards again.

New England Patriots Betting Analysis

The Patriots truly had the defending NFC champs on the ropes in the final moments of their season opener, despite spotting the Eagles a 16-0 first quarter lead out of the gate. Trailing by five points, New England drove all the way down to the 19-yard line with 58 seconds left on the clock. But on 4th-and-11, Keyshon Boutte caught a pass at the 8-yard line that was ruled out of bounds after replay review, and the Birds managed to escape with a 25-20 victory.

It’s natural for Patriots supporters to play the could’ve-would’ve-should’ve game following a heartbreaking end to last week’s contest. But the reality is, New England had more than enough chances to win that game. The Patriots only scored on 3-of-13 offensive drives against Philly. They went three-and-out five times (or four-and-out), and turned the ball over twice deep inside their own territory.

Back in the Tom Brady era, the Patriots were notorious for “doing the little things” and minimizing unforced errors – but it’s a new day and age in New England. The Patriots turned the ball over 23 times last season, which was the 11th-worst mark in the entire league, and if you add two more turnovers to that total after last week, that makes 25 giveaways in their last 18 games. Top notch offenses like the Dolphins and Eagles typically make you pay for such poor ball security.

Dolphins vs Patriots Betting Trends

• The Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
• The total has gone OVER in eight of Miami's last 12 games.
• The Dolphins are 2-6 SU in their last eight games.
• The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
• The total has gone OVER in four of New England's last five games.
• The Patriots are 1-4 SU in their last five games.
• The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
• The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against New England.
• The Dolphins are 4-1 SU in their last five games against New England.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the last six matchups between the Patriots and Dolphins.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson