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Giants vs Bills Picks, Predictions, Odds | Sunday Night Football Week 6

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read

The sixth Sunday of regular season NFL action concludes with what has the makings of a lopsided non-conference clash between the New York Giants and Buffalo Bills. Coverage begins from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.

Here's everything you need to know about the Giants vs. Bills Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Sunday Night Football Week 6.

Giants vs Bills Picks, Betting Prediction & Odds for Sunday Night Football Week 6

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

New York may have a win under its belt with a record of 1-4 entering Week 6. But make no mistake about it, the Giants have arguably been the worst team in football through the first five weeks of the season. And the forecast looks awfully gloomy as they enter this primetime matchup against the Bills with a boatload of questionable tags on the injury report including QB Daniel Jones (neck), RB Saquon Barkley (ankle), TE Darren Waller (groin), as well as three of five starting offensive lineman.

Even at times of much better health, the Giants have been outscored 94-19 in the first half of their contests, which has made it incredibly difficult for New York to keep things competitive late in games on the way to a near-winless start. However, they briefly flipped the switch in the second half of their Week 2 matchup against Arizona, erupting for 31 points on 350 total yards in the final two quarters to complete a 21-point comeback and keep them slightly above water with a win – despite owning a point differential of -91 on the season overall, the worst mark in the league by a 15-point margin entering this week.

Following Buffalo’s 26-20 loss to the Jaguars in London last week, VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson had a conversation with SuperBook risk advisor Chase Michaelson on Sunday night, and reported that the the lookahead line for this matchup closed at Bills -13, and then reopened at -15.5, having since been bet down to -14.5. Michaelson said, “That move is likely a result of the Buffalo travel situation, because it isn't anything pro-Giants…the spread is probably high enough to scare the public away, but New York is going to test that theory."

The Giants defense has been awful this season. They have surrendered 28+ points in four of their five contests, and they’ve allowed 24+ in all five. But against all odds, the Giants offense has actually been worse, having scored 16 points or less in four of five matchups to go along with eight turnovers thus far – leaving New York ranked 31st in scoring offense and 30th in scoring defense entering the week.

The Bills appeared to suffer from a little bit of jet lag in their early morning London matchup last Sunday, as they rolled out of bed and scored just seven points in the opening 45 minutes of the contest before finally putting it all together for a 13-point fourth quarter to make things close down the stretch in the loss. 

However, prior to their latest defeat, the Bills had scored 37+ points in three straight contests against defensive units that have seen much better days than this beat-up Giants group. If the Bills offense deals a similar amount of damage in this contest, Buffalo might win this game by 30. We should be in for a snoozer on Sunday night. I’m laying the points with Buffalo.

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Score Prediction: Bills 34, Giants 13
Best Bet: Bills -14.5 (-110)

NYG @ BUF Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A +9.5 even +9.5 -110 +9.5 -105 +9.5 even +8.5 -110 +8.5 -108 +15.5 -112  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A -9.5 -120 -9.5 -110 -9.5 -115 -9.5 -120 -8.5 -110 -8.5 -115 -15.5 -108  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A o22.5 -110 o22.5 -110 o22.5 -115 o22.5 -110 o21.5 -120 o23.5 -107 o43.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A u22.5 -110 u22.5 -110 u22.5 -105 u22.5 -110 u21.5 even u23.5 -117 u43.5 -110  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A +450 +400 +410 +430 +390 +400 +700  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A -600 -550 -550 -600 -550 -590 -1100  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A +6.5 -115 N/A N/A +6.5 -130 +6.5 +105 +6.5 +102 +15.5 -112  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A -6.5 -105 N/A N/A -6.5 +110 -6.5 -130 -6.5 -127 -15.5 -108  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A o21.5 -110 N/A N/A o21.5 -115 o20.5 -110 o20.5 -106 o43.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A u21.5 -110 N/A N/A u21.5 -105 u20.5 -110 u20.5 -118 u43.5 -110  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A +265 N/A N/A N/A +310 +300 +700  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A -330 N/A N/A N/A -390 -400 -1100  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A +3.5 +105 +3.5 -110 +3.5 +105 +3.5 +105 +3.5 -104 +3.5 +110 +15.5 -112  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A -3.5 -125 -3.5 -120 -3.5 -125 -3.5 -125 -3.5 -116 -3.5 -136 -15.5 -108  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A o9.5 even o9.5 +105 o9.5 -108 o9.5 even o7.5 -112 o9.5 -109 o43.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A u9.5 -120 u9.5 -140 u9.5 -112 u9.5 -120 u7.5 -110 u9.5 -115 u43.5 -110  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A +300 +280 +300 +285 +280 +325 +700  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A -380 -400 -380 -365 -370 -455 -1100  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A +4.5 -105 N/A -0.5 +120 N/A +5.5 -120 N/A +15.5 -112  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A -4.5 -115 N/A +0.5 -150 N/A -5.5 -102 N/A -15.5 -108  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A o13.5 -120 N/A o6.5 -105 N/A o9.5 -142 N/A o43.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A u13.5 even N/A u6.5 -125 N/A u9.5 +106 N/A u43.5 -110  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A +265 N/A +275 N/A +270 N/A +700  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A -330 N/A -345 N/A -340 N/A -1100  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A +3.5 -130 N/A +3.5 -120 N/A +3.5 -110 N/A +15.5 -112  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A -3.5 +110 N/A -3.5 even N/A -3.5 -110 N/A -15.5 -108  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A o9 -110 N/A o7.5 -112 N/A o6.5 -132 N/A o43.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A u9 -110 N/A u7.5 -108 N/A u6.5 even N/A u43.5 -110  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A +215 N/A +235 N/A +240 N/A +700  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A -260 N/A -290 N/A -290 N/A -1100  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A +3.5 -125 N/A +3.5 -108 N/A +3.5 -126 N/A +15.5 -112  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A -3.5 +105 N/A -3.5 -112 N/A -3.5 +102 N/A -15.5 -108  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A o10.5 -115 N/A o11.5 -110 N/A o10.5 -104 N/A o43.5 -110  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A u10.5 -105 N/A u11.5 -110 N/A u10.5 -118 N/A u43.5 -110  
Final
New York Giants 275 Giants
N/A +205 N/A +230 N/A +235 N/A +700  
Buffalo Bills 276 Bills
N/A -245 N/A -285 N/A -290 N/A -1100  

Giants vs Bills Betting Resources

Date: Sunday, October 15, 2023
Matchup: NFC East vs AFC East
Venue: Highmark Stadium
Location: Orchard Park, New York
Time-TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 6 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

New York Giants Betting Analysis

The Giants have become somewhat notorious for their struggles under the bright lights since drafting Daniel Jones back in 2019. Jones owns a career record of 1-13 SU and 5-9 ATS in primetime, which includes a record of 0-6 SU at home. Jones is trending towards being inactive for this one, but quite frankly, that trend is more of an indictment of this Giants team as a whole, as opposed to one individual player. 

Tyrod Taylor is expected to get the start at quarterback in this one. As a Virginia native and JMU graduate, I’ve been a fan of Tyrod since his days with the Virginia Tech Hokies when he threw for 7,017 yards and rushed for 2,196 yards in 50 career appearances for some really good Frank Beamer teams.

That said, the issues for this Giants team are much deeper rooted than the quarterback position. In some situations, you will see a backup QB enter the mix and provide a little bit of a spark or change of pace that naturally awakens a team. However, I don’t see this as a case of the Giants sleepwalking through the first handful of weeks or something like that. This is New York returning back to its baseline after a baffling campaign that resulted in a playoff win last year.

The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six games. (Getty)

Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

As previously noted, the main reason the spread of this matchup fell early in the week is due to the discussion surrounding the Bills electing to decline their option to take a bye week following an international matchup in London this past Sunday. For that reason, many bettors have had this game circled on their calendar since the preseason.

According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, only 11 times in NFL history has a team returned home from Europe without a bye week. Every one of those teams found themselves tied or trailing in the fourth quarter the following week. Opponent team totals are also 7-4 to the over in those contests.

That said, I think you have to take a step back and throw the historical trends out the window ahead of this contest. With Daniel Jones expected to be sidelined for New York, along with several teammates, I think there’s a good chance that we’ll see the Giants kick the can down the road another week and rest a bunch of key starters on Sunday night as they try to regroup for a much softer three-game stretch with matchups on the horizon against the Commanders, Jets, and Raiders.

Giants vs Bills Betting Trends

  • The Giants are 0-6 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Giants' last six games.
  • The Giants are 1-5 SU in their last six games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Buffalo's last six games.
  • The Bills are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of Buffalo's last 10 games against the Giants.
  • The Bills are 14-3 SU in their last 17 home games.
  • The Giants are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games against Buffalo.
  • The Giants are 4-2 SU in their last six games against Buffalo.
  • The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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