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Jaguars vs Saints Picks, Predictions, Odds | Thursday Night Football Week 7

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read

Week 7 of the NFL season kicks things off with Thursday Night Football between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints. Coverage begins from the Caesars Superdome in The Big Easy at 8:15 p.m. ET on Amazon Prime Video.

Here's everything you need to know about the Jaguars vs. Saints Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 7, and use our BetMGM bonus code to get the most out of your action.

Jaguars vs Saints Picks, Betting Prediction & Odds for Thursday Night Football Week 7

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

On Sunday night, VegaInsider’s Patrick Everson had a conversation with SuperBook risk advisor Chase Michaeson, and reported that the lookahead line for this contest closed at Jaguars -1 prior to Week 6 kickoff. However, he noted that further odds movement would be dependent on the health of QB Trevor Lawrence, who suffered a bruised knee in Jacksonville’s 37-20 win over the Colts last week – in turn, moving the line to Saints -3 as of Tuesday morning.

If Lawrence is unable to go, CJ Beathard will get the start at QB for Jacksonville. Beathard still hasn’t made a start for the Jags yet, now in his third campaign with the team. However, he did fill in on a number of occasions during his three-year tenure with the 49ers, and was usually a serviceable replacement despite yielding a record of 2-10 as a starter. Beathard completed roughly 60% of his passes and threw 18 touchdowns to 14 interceptions in 12 starts for San Francisco. And in his eight relief appearances for Jacksonville, he’s also posted modest numbers, completing 11 of 15 pass attempts for 73 yards.

Even with Lawrence, though, the Jaguars offense has still been incredibly inconsistent through the first six weeks of the season. They looked great in their two matchups against the Colts, erupting for 30+ points in both contests. However, in their other four games, they averaged just 18.5 points per game, while scoring 17 points or less on two different occasions, and they’ve already turned the ball over eight times.

On the other side of that same coin, the Saints offense has also had its fair share of struggles as Derek Carr continues to play through the AC joint sprain that he suffered back in Week 3. The Saints offense looked great in Week 5 against New England, as they lit up the scoreboard for 34 points despite gaining just 304 total yards in a blowout win over the Patriots. However, excluding that one performance, they’ve been pretty terrible in the rest of their contests, having scored 20 points or less in their other five affairs – averaging a meager 15 points per game in those outings.

The total for this contest originally opened at 42, and as of Friday, it’s already fallen to 39. According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, first half unders are 85-58-2 (59%) in night games since 2021, including 24-14-1 (63%) on TNF during that span. On a short week, with both QBs dealing with injuries, it will probably take a few quarters for these offenses to get the wheels spinning. Give me the first half under at 19.5 on Thursday night.

Score Prediction: Jaguars 20, Saints 13
Best Bet: First Half Total - Under 19.5 (-105)

JAX @ NO Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
-1.5 -102 +0.5 -110 +0.5 -120 +0.5 -108 +0.5 -110 +1.5 -125 +1.5 -121 +1.5 -104  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
+1.5 -120 -0.5 -110 -0.5 even -0.5 -112 -0.5 -110 -1.5 +105 -1.5 -105 -1.5 -118  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
o42.5 -105 o20 -110 o19.5 -120 o20.5 -102 o20 -110 o19.5 -110 o20.5 even o40.5 -115  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
u42.5 -115 u20 -110 u19.5 even u20.5 -118 u20 -110 u19.5 -110 u20.5 -124 u40.5 -105  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
-110 +110 even +114 +105 +108 +106 +118  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
-106 -130 -120 -135 -125 -132 -132 -138  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
-1.5 -102 +1.5 -135 N/A N/A +0.5 -110 +1.5 -135 +1.5 -129 +1.5 -104  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
+1.5 -120 -1.5 +115 N/A N/A -0.5 -110 -1.5 +115 -1.5 even -1.5 -118  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
o42.5 -105 o19.5 -110 N/A N/A o20.5 -115 o19.5 -120 o20.5 -112 o40.5 -115  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
u42.5 -115 u19.5 -110 N/A N/A u20.5 -105 u19.5 even u20.5 -112 u40.5 -105  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
-110 -105 N/A N/A N/A even +105 +118  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
-106 -115 N/A N/A N/A -116 -132 -138  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
-1.5 -102 +0.5 -150 +0.5 -175 +0.5 -148 +0.5 -140 +1.5 -178 +1.5 -177 +1.5 -104  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
+1.5 -120 -0.5 +130 -0.5 +135 -0.5 +124 -0.5 +118 -1.5 +146 -1.5 +138 -1.5 -118  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
o42.5 -105 o7 -130 o7 -130 o7.5 +114 o7 -130 o7.5 +136 o7.5 +112 o40.5 -115  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
u42.5 -115 u7 +110 u7 even u7.5 -135 u7 +110 u7.5 -166 u7.5 -139 u40.5 -105  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
-110 +110 -105 +120 +115 +104 +106 +118  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
-106 -130 -125 -142 -135 -128 -130 -138  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
-1.5 -102 +0.5 -135 N/A -6.5 -115 N/A +1.5 -144 N/A +1.5 -104  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
+1.5 -120 -0.5 +115 N/A +6.5 -115 N/A -1.5 +118 N/A -1.5 -118  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
o42.5 -105 o12.5 -105 N/A o12.5 -130 N/A o12.5 -112 N/A o40.5 -115  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
u42.5 -115 u12.5 -115 N/A u12.5 even N/A u12.5 -108 N/A u40.5 -105  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
-110 -105 N/A even N/A even N/A +118  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
-106 -115 N/A -120 N/A -116 N/A -138  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
-1.5 -102 +0.5 -155 N/A +0.5 -148 N/A +1.5 -164 N/A +1.5 -104  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
+1.5 -120 -0.5 +135 N/A -0.5 +124 N/A -1.5 +134 N/A -1.5 -118  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
o42.5 -105 o7.5 +110 N/A o7.5 -105 N/A o7.5 +102 N/A o40.5 -115  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
u42.5 -115 u7.5 -130 N/A u7.5 -115 N/A u7.5 -124 N/A u40.5 -105  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
-110 -110 N/A +102 N/A +102 N/A +118  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
-106 -110 N/A -122 N/A -120 N/A -138  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
-1.5 -102 +0.5 -140 N/A +0.5 -135 N/A +1.5 -164 N/A +1.5 -104  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
+1.5 -120 -0.5 +120 N/A -0.5 +114 N/A -1.5 +134 N/A -1.5 -118  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
o42.5 -105 o10.5 even N/A o12.5 -118 N/A o10.5 +102 N/A o40.5 -115  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
u42.5 -115 u10.5 -120 N/A u12.5 -102 N/A u10.5 -126 N/A u40.5 -105  
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars 311 Jaguars
-110 -105 N/A -105 N/A -104 N/A +118  
New Orleans Saints 312 Saints
-106 -115 N/A -115 N/A -112 N/A -138  

Jaguars vs Saints Betting Resources

Date: Thursday, October 19, 2023
Matchup: AFC South vs NFC South
Venue: Caesars Superdome
Location: New Orleans, Louisiana
Time-TV: Amazon Prime Video, 8:15 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 7 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Analysis

The Jaguars offense enters the week ranked 10th in scoring at 23.7 points per game, however, that number certainly doesn’t tell the full story. The Jaguars defense has actually been the far more consistent unit on the way to a 4-2 record, considering they held their opponents to 21, 20, 20, 17, and 7 in five of six contests, but they surrendered 37 points in a loss to the Texans, so they rank in the middle of the pack scoring-wise at 20.3 points allowed per game.

The Jaguars offense exploded for 31 and 37 in a pair of matchups against Indy. But they’ve maxed out at 25 points against their other four opponents. So, I wouldn’t be too worried about Jacksonville’s offense sending this game over the total with a 30-burger. The under strikes me as the best play in this contest regardless of the QB situation. However, if Beathard gets announced as the starter for Jacksonville, this number will continue to fall, so I would grab the under now.

The total has gone UNDER in six of the Saints last seven home games. (Getty)

New Orleans Saints Betting Analysis

The Saints are tied for second place in the NFC South standings with a record of 3-3, however, their modest success thus far is certainly no thanks to their offense. The Saints have scored 20 points or less in five of six games this season, and 17 points or less in four of six. And the only time their offense truly played well, their defense shutout the Patriots in a 34-0 blowout, so it didn’t really matter.

The main reason that the Saints find themselves afloat at .500 entering Week 7 is because of their phenomenal defensive play. The Saints have surrendered 20 points or less in five of six matchups, and 18 points or less in four of six – currently ranked sixth in scoring at an average of 16 points allowed per game. I think we’ll see them find a similar level of success against a banged-up Jacksonville offense playing on short rest.

Jaguars vs Saints Betting Trends

  • The Jaguars are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The Jaguars are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games.
  • The Saints are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 straight Saints games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Saints last seven home games.
  • The Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against New Orleans.
  • The Jaguars are 1-4 SU in their last five games against New Orleans.
  • The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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