Thursday Night Same Game Parlay: Bijan Burst & Pitts Payoff Parlay

Thursday Night Same Game Parlay: Bijan Burst & Pitts Payoff Parlay

(Image credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images)

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Ready for Thursday Night Football between the Bucs and Falcons with an NFL Same Game Parlay that pays out +575?  Follow along as NFL betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down his SGP picks for Thursday, December 11th.

Be sure to check out our staff's full NFL week 15 predictions.

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ATL @ TB Odds

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds, Prediction

We are officially into the final month of the NFL regular season, with every remaining game having significant playoff implications for those teams who still find themselves in the hunt. On Thursday Night Football, the Buccaneers will host the Falcons, needing a win to maintain control of 1st place in the NFC South division.

Meanwhile, the Falcons were mathematically eliminated from this year’s postseason after losing to the Seahawks in Week 14. Still, that doesn’t mean they are simply going to roll over for their division rivals in this prime-time affair.

As always, it is worth noting that straight wagers are a far more profitable long-term betting strategy than parlays. Still, parlays can be a fun way to get some extra action on a game to make things interesting! Looking to get in on the action? Be sure to check out the latest bet365 bonus code!

Thursday Night Football - Same Game Parlay

  • Atlanta Falcons ML
  • Bijan Robinson 100+ Rushing Yards
  • Kyle Pitts to score a TD

PAYOUT: +575

Atlanta Falcons ML

Despite leading the NFC South division, there isn’t a tremendous amount of evidence to suggest that the Buccaneers are actually a good football team. Through 14 weeks, they have 7 wins but have only finished 3 games with a positive net success rate. Overall, they rank only 17th in DVOA and have been even worse of late.

A big part of their recent struggles has been the play of QB Baker Mayfield. Since Week 7, he ranks 27th in EPA/play and 27th in success rate among 29 quarterbacks to have logged 150+ plays.

Kirk Cousins has finished 3 of his last 4 games with a negative EPA/play, but Mayfield has finished 4 of his last 7 games with a negative EPA/play, too. It’s not the craziest thing in the world to think that the Falcons could pull an upset in this spot.

Bijan Robinson 100+ Rushing Yards

Since their Week 9 bye, the Buccaneers have really struggled to slow down opposing ground attacks. During their last 5 games, they rank 22nd in EPA/play, with big plays on the ground being a consistent issue.

Bijan Robinson has already hit the century mark in 4 separate games this fall. If he sees near 20 touches again on Thursday, he should have plenty of opportunities to break a big run or two.

Kyle Pitts to score a TD

In Atlanta’s last 3 games, all with Kirk Cousins under center, Kyle Pitts has been the team’s clear alpha in the passing game. His 23 targets are nearly twice as many as any other player on the roster in that span – Darnell Mooney ranks 2nd with 12 targets.

Pitts has played 88.9% of the team’s snaps in the red zone since Week 12. If Atlanta has any success through the air in this matchup, Pitts is likely to be a big part of the process.