NFL Odds Wild Card Weekend: Dolphins vs Chiefs Lines, Spreads, Betting Trends

Patrick Everson Sports Betting Expert

5 minute read

NFL Wild Card Weekend continues on Saturday night with heavyweight AFC rematch between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs. The betting odds see Miami as a 3.5-point road underdog coming off back-to-back losses to close the regular season. Coverage begins from Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Saturday, January 13 at 8:00 p.m. ET on Peacock.

Here's everything you need to know about the NFL odds for Wild Card Weekend: Dolphins vs. Chiefs lines, spreads, betting trends and more.

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Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds

• Opening point spread: Chiefs -3.5
• Opening moneyline: Chiefs -180/Miami +160
• Opening total: Over/Under 45 points scored
• Time: 8 p.m. ET Saturday (Peacock)

UPDATE 7:15 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Less than hour before kickoff, the Chiefs sit at -4.5 (-115) in BetMGM's NFL Wild Card Weekend odds. Kansas City opened -3.5 Sunday night, got to -4 Tuesday and -5 Wednesday. Friday brought a dip to -4.5, but twice today, K.C. stretched to -5.5 (-105).

BetMGM customers are solidly on the Chiefs spread, at 2/1-plus tickets and 3/1 money. And although 60% of moneyline tickets are on the Dolphins, Kansas City is getting 56% of moneyline dollars.

"If the Dolphins get the upset, we'll be good for the whole weekend. Two of our most lopsided games so far are Browns and Chiefs," BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini said. "A Miami cover would still be very good, but outright is best."

The total opened at 45.5, quickly fell to 43.5 Sunday night, then bottomed out at 42.5 Monday morning. The number spent much of the rest of the week at 43.5, though there trips to 44/44.5 on Friday.

As has been well documented, weather is a big issue tonight. The temperature will check in below zero, and with the wind chill, it'll feel like -20 or worse. With that in mind, tickets and money are in the 6/1 range on the Under at BetMGM.

"Everybody is on the Under," Cipollini said.

In player props, Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco is taking the most tickets in the First Touchdown market. K.C. tight end Travis Kelce is the leading ticket-taker in the Anytime TD market.

UPDATE 5 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Kansas City got out to -4.5 this afternoon at TwinSpires. The Chiefs opened -3 Sunday night and spent time at -3.5 and -4.

Line movement notwithstanding, it's two-way spread play, with 52% of tickets on Miami and 58% of money on K.C.

"Great two-way action this week. We saw sharp play on K.C. -3 and -3.5," Lucas said.

TwinSpires' total hasn't budged off the 44 opener. But Saturday night will be extremely cold in Kansas City. Temperatures are predicted to be in the single digits at best, along with winds of 10-15 mph that will make it feel as if it's well below zero.

The Under is getting 55% of tickets/60% of money early on.

"Under money is coming in, due to all the news about how cold it'll be," Lucas said.

UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: Defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City (11-6 SU/9-7-1 ATS) got a Week 18 win, when it wasn't really trying for one. The Chiefs, sitting Patrick Mahomes and many others, edged the L.A. Chargers 13-12 as 3.5-point road underdogs.

Meanwhile, Miami (11-6 SU/10-7 ATS) needed a Week 18 win to claim the AFC East and get a home Wild Card game. That didn't happen. The Dolphins were 3-point underdogs and led Buffalo 14-7 at halftime Sunday night.

But Tua Tagovailoa and Co. were shut out in the second half and gave up two-fourth quarter TDs. Miami lost 21-14 as a 2.5-point home underdog.

"Miami is so banged up, and it had more defensive injuries tonight. It's just not the same team," Michaelson said. "When these two teams played in Germany, it actually closed Dolphins -1. This ain't that. And it's gonna be freezing cold. The wind chill could be below zero.

"That's not Dolphins weather. A QB from Hawaii who's never started a playoff game, against a guy who's played a zillion of these cold home playoff games."

While the Dolphins-Chiefs spread is unchanged tonight at K.C. -3.5, the total is on the decline. The SuperBook opened at 45 and made stops at 44.5/44/43.5 before stopping at 43.

"Sharp bettors played the Under, which makes sense with the weather conditions. And also, frankly, I think both teams will want to shorten the game in these conditions," Michaelson said.

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Wild Card Weekend Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

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Dolphins vs Chiefs Pick, Prediction

Action Network NFL betting expert Brandon Anderson offers this prediction:

If you've been reading all season, this is a pretty common pick for Miami — because it's been mispriced all year and keeps hitting week after week.

Miami is going to need to score some points to beat Patrick Mahomes on the road, and the Dolphins run game looks like the biggest advantage, especially in the freezing cold. Raheem Mostert isn't fully healthy but he's been a star for this offense, and he's also the guy near the goal line. He's scored at least one touchdown in 12 of 15 games for an 80% hit rate. That should imply -400, not the 38.5% implied by +160 at FanDuel.

Pick: Raheem Mostert Anytime TD (+160)

For more NFL picks, check out Action Network's NFL Wild Card Weekend: How to Bet Every Game & Every Team.

The One Stat to Know About Dolphins vs Chiefs

Action Network NFL researcher Evan Abrams offers his top betting stat:

Dolphins will travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs  Saturday night — Miami is 8-19 SU last 20 years in sub 40-degree weather.

For more NFL betting stats, check out Action Network's NFL Wild Card Weekend Betting Trends, Stats, Notes.

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Patrick Everson

Patrick Everson is a senior reporter for VegasInsider. Based in Las Vegas since 1994, he's worked in the sports betting journalism/content space for more than a decade. He's most known for his deep roster of contacts behind sportsbook counters, providing readers and viewers with the ins-and-outs of how events are being bet. He's also a thought leader in the sports betting space, often appearing on or moderating panels at national conferences. More from Patrick Everson