Last Updated Nov 27, 2022, 10:26 AM
NFL Week 12 Opening Odds Report
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
NFL Week 12 odds give us a Thanksgiving feast of three games. You could argue that those three games are the best of the bunch.
Leading the way is an NFC East clash between the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys. On Sunday, the scorching-hot Tennessee Titans aim to keep rolling against the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals
Multiple oddsmakers provide insights on Week 12 NFL odds and action. Check back regularly for updates.
Opening line: Bengals -1.5; Over/Under 42.5
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 10:15 A.M. ET SUNDAY: Less than three hours before kickoff, this game is down to a pick 'em at WynnBet. Last Sunday night, the Bengals opened -1, then Tuesday rose to -2 on the way to -3 by Wednesday evening. The return of star wideout Ja'Marr Chase (hip) helped prompt the move up on Cincy.
However, on Saturday, the line fell to Bengals -2 and -1.5, then this morning went to -1 and pick. Spread ticket count is 2/1 and spread money 5/1 on the Titans. Tennessee is also getting hit on the moneyline, at almost 2/1 tickets and 4/1-plus money.
WynnBet said it needs the Bengals to win by more than two points.
The total opened at 43, went to 43.5 Thursday, then Saturday briefly backed up to 42, before settling at 42.5. It's still at 42.5, with 78% of tickets/57% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: BetMGM posted Cincy as a 1.5-point road favorite Sunday night. On Wednesday afternoon, on news that Bengals wideout Ja'Marr Chase (hip) will return this week, the line went to Bengals -2.5.
Cincinnati is currently -2.5 (-115) on two-way action, with 52% of tickets/57% of cash on the Bengals.
The total rose from 42.5 to 43.5 Thursday afternoon and remains there tonight. Early ticket count is running 3/1 and early money 9/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: It appears Bengals wideout Ja'Marr Chase (hip) will return after a three-game absence, and that has this line on the move in Caesars' NFL Week 12 odds market. Cincinnati opened -1.5 Sunday night, went to -2 this afternoon, then rose to -2.5 (-115) and -3 (even) this evening.
It's two-way action on the point spread, with 53% of tickets on the Titans and 60% of money on the Bengals.
The total opened at 43, nudged down to 42.5 Monday morning and hasn't moved since. Betting splits aren't available.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Tennessee (7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS) is the hottest team in the NFL, on the field and for bettors. The Titans are 7-1 SU in their last eight outings, and they've cashed in all eight games.
In Week 11, Tennessee went to Green Bay as a 3-point underdog and exited with a 27-17 outright victory.
Cincinnati (6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS) has won four of its last five SU and is almost as hot as Tennessee ATS, covering seven of its last eight. In Week 11, Cincinnati was a 3.5-point chalk at Pittsburgh and won a shootout 37-30.
"There was some discussion on whether to open pick or make Cincy a small road favorite," senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said of The SuperBook's opener on the NFL Week 12 odds board. "So far, it's been mostly action on the Titans, but nothing of note to make us go to a pick. Some smaller bets on the Over, as well."
Opening line: Chiefs -14.5; Over/Under 44.5
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Kansas City hit BetMGM's Week 12 NFL odds board as a healthy 14.5-point chalk, and the number has only climbed from there, with Los Angeles minus QB Matthew Stafford (neck). The Chief went to -15.5 Wednesday, then to -16 Thursday night.
However, spread bettors are leaning toward all those points with the Rams, who are getting 66% of early tickets/61% of early money.
The total opened at 44 and dipped to 42 by Thursday evening, with multiple stops along the way. The Under is nabbing 61% of tickets/62% of money.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Things just get worse all the time for the defending Super Bowl champion Rams. After getting QB Matthew Stafford out of concussion protocol in time for the Week 11 game against New Orleans, Stafford suffered a strained neck in that contest.
Earlier today, L.A. coach Sean McVay ruled out Stafford for this week's game. That prompted Caesars Sports to move the line straight from Chiefs -14.5 to -15.5, after opening K.C. -14 Monday morning. Still, with a huge spread, the Rams are seeing 65% of early bets/55% of early cash on the spread.
“If you were away for six months and saw this line, you’d be wondering what’s going on,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “Obviously. Stafford’s situation doesn’t help the Rams, and the Chiefs are playing at a high level. But teams that are laying this amount of points haven’t done well this year. A lot of big underdogs have come through.
"The Rams still have a respectable defense. If they can create some havoc and force Mahomes into a couple errors, they can set themselves up with some short fields. The offense doesn’t seem like it’ll muster much against the Chiefs, but it’s a lot of points, no matter what.”
The total opened at 44.5, quickly went to 44, then dropped to 43.5 and 43 today on the Stafford news. Betting splits aren't available tonight.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: This game probably looked awesome to the NFL schedule-makers several months ago. You had the defending Super Bowl champion traveling to face a perennial Super Bowl contender.
But the Los Angeles Rams have looked nothing like championship team. Matthew Stafford is getting banged up regularly, and Cooper Kupp (ankle) probably won't be back for the rest of this lost season.
In Week 11, the Rams (3-7 SU, 2-7-1 ATS) were 2.5-point road underdogs to New Orleans, which tells you just about all you need to know. Los Angeles lost 27-20, its fourth consecutive setback and sixth in seven games.
On the flip side, Kansas City (8-2 SU, 3-6-1 ATS) has won four in a row and six of seven, though it's still failing to deliver for bettors. In the Week 11 Sunday nighter, Patrick Mahomes led a last-minute touchdown drive, giving the Chiefs a 30-27 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. But K.C. fell short of cashing as 5.5-point road chalk.
"We weren't sure where to open this game, with Stafford being knocked out against the Saints," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said, alluding to the Rams QB going into concussion protocol. "We cautioned on the side of him not playing and being on the high side, based on the Rams' backup QB situation. There were some nibbles on the Rams at +14.5, but that game is off the board now because the Chiefs are playing [the Chargers] on Sunday Night Football. No action on the total yet."
Rams-Chiefs will go back up at The SuperBook on Monday morning.
Opening line: Eagles -6.5; Over/Under 45.5
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC)
UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Preseason, this Sunday Night Football clash probably seemed pretty interesting. Now, now quite so much. Granted, Philly is good, but Green Bay is not.
BetMGM opened the Eagles at -7 (-115) Sunday night, quickly adjusted to -7 (-105), then shifted to -7 flat Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday afternoon, Philadelphia dipped to -6.5, where the line remains tonight. Point-spread ticket count is almost dead even, while 61% of spread money is actually on the Packers.
The total opened at 45.5, fell to 45 Monday morning, then quickly rebounded to 46.5 by Monday night. There's been no movement since, with 69% of early tickets/79% of early cash on the Under, contrary to the move.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Caesars Sports opened the Eagles -6.5 Sunday night, went to -7 Monday morning, then returned to -6.5 this afternoon. Philly is landing 56% of early spread bets, but interestingly, as bad as the Packers are, they are taking 65% of early spread dollars for the Sunday night game.
The total opened at 45, reached 46.5 Monday night and hasn't moved since. Betting splits aren't available.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: After a stunning Week 10 home loss to Washington on Monday Night Football, Philadelphia bounced back – barely. The Eagles (9-1 SU, 5-5 ATS) went to Indianapolis as 6.5-point faves and escaped with a 17-16 victory.
It took a 7-yard Jalen Hurts TD run with 1:20 remaining to keep Philly from its second loss of the season.
On the flip side, Green Bay's train wreck of a season continued in Week 11. After a nice comeback over Dallas, the Packers (4-7 SU and ATS) closed as 3-point home favorites against Tennessee and tumbled outright 27-17.
"It's been all Eagles action so far. We haven't moved off the opener, but at 6.5, I think it will mostly be Eagles money from the public," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said. "The Eagles struggled in Indianapolis today, but I could see this line moving up to 7 shortly. Some smaller bets on the Under here, as well, but nothing notable."
The line and total remain at Philly -6.5 and 45.5, respectively.
Opening line: Colts -2.5; Over/Under 39.5
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday (ESPN)
UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: BetMGM installed Indy at -2.5 (-115) Sunday night, moved to -3 (-105) Monday afternoon, then went to -2.5 flat Tuesday morning. There's been no line movement since for the Monday nighter.
Early ticket count is 2/1 and early money 4/1 on Pittsburgh. And the moneyline is even more lopsided, with tickets 3/1 and money 6/1-plus on the road 'dog Steelers.
The total opened at 39.5 and has been painted to 39 since Tuesday afternoon. The Over is drawing 60% of tickets/69% of money.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Indianapolis hit Caesars Sports' NFL Week 12 odds board at -2.5 (-120) Sunday night, went to -3 Monday morning, then fell to -2.5 (-115) Monday night. The line has since been at various iterations of Colts -2.5, and it's currently Colts -2.5 flat.
Point-spread ticket count is dead even early on, but spread money is running almost 3/1 on the short underdog Steelers.
The total opened at 39.5 and has been stable at 39 since late Monday afternoon at Caesars. Betting splits aren't available tonight.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: The only reason this contest makes the cut for this article is the same reason Packers-Eagles is in – because it's a prime-time game.
Indianapolis (4-6-1 SU, 5-6 ATS) got a road win over Las Vegas in Jeff Saturday's coaching debut. The Colts were on the brink of making it two straight, and against one of the league's best teams, the Philadelphia Eagles.
Indy took a 16-10 lead on a field goal with under five minutes left. But the Colts then gave up an Eagles touchdown with 1:20 left and lost 17-16, while covering as 6.5-point home 'dogs.
Pittsburgh (3-7 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) gave Cincinnati all it could handle, with the Steelers actually leading 20-17 at halftime. But Mike Tomlin's troops ultimately fell 37-30, failing to cash as 3.5-point home pups.
"We saw some sharp money come in on the Colts -2.5, pushing us to -2.5 (-120). We haven't gone to 3 yet, but I could see us getting there at some point," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said. "Indy has played better the last two weeks under Saturday, and I don't think the market is ready to trust [Steelers QB] Kenny Pickett on the road. The total hasn't drawn a ton of action yet."
The Colts remain -2.5 (-120) tonight, while the total is stable at 39.5.
Opening line: Vikings -3; Over/Under 42.5
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday (NBC)
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Less than two hours before kickoff, WynnBet has Minnesota at -2.5 (-120) in the NFL Week 12 odds market. On Sunday evening, the Vikes opened -3, backed up to -2.5 within an hour, then went to -3 (even) late Sunday night.'
The line then toggled between -3 and -2.5 at various prices over the past couple of days, and it's been stable at -2.5 (-120) since Wednesday night. The Vikings are nabbing 67% of spread bets/60% of spread dollars.
"We will need the Patriots, [but] there is a lot of good two-way action on this one," WynnBet trader Andy Morrissey said, while noting moneyline parlay liability running from Bills-Lions and Giants-Cowboys might be a concern. "All three favorites winning wouldn't be great for us on parlays. But's not that bad."
The total went from 42.5 to 43 and back to 42.5 Sunday night, then bottomed out at 42 Wednesday night. Early today, the total returned to 42.5, where it remains tonight. The Under is landing 54% of tickets/72% of money.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Minnesota sits at -2.5 (-125) tonight at Caesars Sports, after bouncing between the -3 opener and -2.5 a couple of times early in the week. Point-spread ticket count is 4/1 and spread money almost 5/1 on the Vikings.
That includes a $105,000 bet on Minnesota -2.5 (-105).
“People are clearly looking at this as a bounce-back situation for the Vikings. You can’t look much worse than they did last week," Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “The Patriots aren’t as good as the Cowboys, and the Patriots are coming off a win that wasn’t very impressive against the Jets last weekend. It’s also a low number, so they’re willing to give [the Vikings] one more shot this week at home.”
The total opened at 42.5, fell to 42 Monday evening, then returned to 42.5 Tuesday morning. Betting splits aren't available.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: A week ago, Minnesota was riding high, tied for the best SU record in the league. Dallas brought the Vikings back down to earth in a hurry.
The Vikes (8-2 SU, 4-5-1 ATS), catching 2.5 points at home, got steamrolled 40-3, halting a seven-game SU spree.
New England (6-4 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) got almost zero out of its offense in Week 11, yet won and covered thanks to a miracle play in the waning seconds against the New York Jets. In a 3-3 game, the Patriots forced the Jets to punt, and Marcus Jones returned it 84 yards for the game's only touchdown.
That gave New England a 10-3 win laying 3.5 points at home.
Despite Minnesota's extremely lackluster Week 11 effort, The SuperBook pegged the Vikes 3-point home favorites.
"The Patriots have attracted the majority of the tickets so far, which isn't shocking, based on how bad Minnesota looked today," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said. "I think this game will create good two-way action, being the last one to kick off in prime time on Thanksgiving night. It's also one of the few games that we've taken Under money from the public at the opener."
Late tonight, the Vikes adjusted to -3 (even), indicating an additional wagering shove on the Patriots in the NFL Week 12 odds market. The total is unchanged.
Opening line: Cowboys -8; Over/Under 43.5
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET Thursday (FOX)
UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Two hours before kickoff, Dallas is laying 10 points at WynnBet. On Sunday night, the Cowboys opened -8, then went to -9 Monday morning and -10 Tuesday night.
The Pokes receded to -9.5 for a few hours Wednesday, then returned to -10. All that noted, New York is netting 60% of spread bets, while 57% of spread cash is on Dallas.
"We are a small winner to the Giants, but don't need them to win the game. If they keep it close, that would be ideal," WynnBet trader Andy Morrissey said. "We also need the Under."
The total opened at 43.5 and got to 45.5 by Tuesday morning, touching every half-point along the way. It's still at 45.5 this afternoon, with 62% of bets/71% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Caesars Sports' NFL Week 12 odds board already has the Cowboys out to -10 for this Thanksgiving clash. Dallas opened -8 Sunday night, rose to -8.5 and -9 Monday morning, then went to -9.5 Tuesday evening and -10 this afternoon.
That said, betting splits on this game are interesting. The Giants are taking 55% of spread tickets, but 84% of spread cash is on the Cowboys. The big reason for that discrepancy: a $275,000 bet on Dallas -10.
Caesars opened the total at 43.5 and on Tuesday afternoon peaked at 45.5, where the number sits tonight. Betting splits aren't available.
UPDATE 11 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Dallas (7-3 SU and ATS) had zero lingering effects from its Week 10 loss at Green Bay. The Cowboys moved over one state to Minnesota and smoked the Vikings 40-3 as 2.5-point road favorites.
Meanwhile, after a blazing 6-1 SU and ATS start, New York is 1-2 SU and ATS in its last two games. And the Week 11 setback was somewhat surprising. The Giants (7-3 SU and ATS) closed as 3-point home favorites against Detroit and got rolled 31-18.
New York trailed 24-6 in the fourth quarter before making the score semi-respectable.
"Last week, we had this line around a touchdown," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said, referring to The SuperBook's look-ahead line. "But with how bad the Giants looked, parlayed with how good the Cowboys looked, we had to open above 7. We've taken a couple bets on the Giants +8 and on the Over, but nothing significant enough to move us off the openers. I anticipate there will be a ton of parlays and teasers involving Dallas."
Late tonight, The SuperBook did move the Cowboys to -8.5. The total is unchanged.
Opening line: Bills -9; Over/Under 52.5
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET Thursday (CBS)
UPDATE 10:30 A.M. ET THURSDAY: Two hours before kickoff, Buffalo is a 9.5-point road chalk at WynnBet. The Bills opened -9 (-115) Sunday night, moved to -9.5 within an hour, then returned to -9 Monday afternoon.
On Tuesday morning, Buffalo got back to -9.5, and the number has been stable since. The Lions are taking 53% of spread tickets, while 76% of spread dollars are on the Bills. WynnBet said the book's best outcome is a Bills win and Lions cover, to dodge some Detroit moneyline liability.
The total opened at 52.5, got to 54 by Monday morning, then went to 54.5 at lunchtime Tuesday. It's still at 54.5 on two-way play, with 52% of tickets on the Under and 51% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 9 P.M. ET WEDNESDAY: Buffalo is laying 9.5 points in Caesars Sports' NFL Week 12 odds market, reaching that number Tuesday morning after opening at -9 Sunday night. It's two-way spread action with a lean toward home 'dog Detroit, at 58% of tickets and money.
The total opened at 52.5 and peaked early Tuesday afternoon at 54.5, where it sits now. Betting splits aren't available tonight.
UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SUNDAY: In a scheduling quirk for the ages, Buffalo plays in Detroit for the second straight week. The Bills had their Week 11 game against Cleveland moved to Detroit, due to massive snowfall in Buffalo. Josh Allen and Co. are making a quick return trip to the Motor City for the opening game on Thanksgiving Day.
Against the Browns, the Bills led just 13-10 at the half, then went on to a 31-23 victory to narrowly cash as 7.5-point favorites.
Detroit, meanwhile, went on the road in Week 11 and notched a modest upset. The Lions (4-6 SU and ATS) closed as 3-point pups against the New York Giants and rolled to a 31-18 victory. Detroit has won and cashed three straight.
"We've already seen parlays tied to the Bills minus the points, and I think that's going to pile up until kickoff," The SuperBook's Casey Degnon said. "There's also been one-way traffic on the Over, which doesn't surprise me, as both teams have shown they can score some points. I think this will be a very popular game amongst the public, being the first game on Thanksgiving."
Despite the early action, the spread remains Bills -9 and the total is still 52.5.