Last Updated Jan 08, 2023, 11:09 PM
NFL Week 18 Opening Odds Report
US Sports Betting Industry Expert
NFL Week 18 odds don't reveal a single game that just screams out, "You must watch this." But no question, several matchups will determine the final setting at the playoff dinner table.
In fact, the No. 1 seeds in both the AFC and NFC are still up for grabs. The Chiefs, Bills and Bengals are in the AFC hunt, while the Eagles, Cowboys and 49ers are pursuing the NFC's top slot.
Multiple oddsmakers provide insights on Week 18 NFL odds and action. Check back regularly for updates.
Opening line: Packers -4.5; Over/Under 48.5
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday (NBC)
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Less than two hours before kickoff, the Packers are 4.5-point favorites at PointsBet USA. That's where Green Bay opened last Sunday night, and on Thursday, the Pack went to -5 before returning to -4.5.
Late Saturday night, the Packers rose to -5, then today peaked multiple times at -5.5, before backing up to the current -4.5. Point-spread ticket count is almost dead even, and 57% of spread money is on Green Bay. Moneyline action is much more one-sided, at 72% of tickets/84% of cash on the Packers.
"We'll be rooting for a Lions upset," PointsBet sports analyst Mike Korn said. "We also have decent liability on [Lions running back] Jamal Williams first/anytime TD, so we will be rooting for him to stay out of the end zone."
PointsBet opened the total at 48.5, got to 49.5 Monday, receded to 49 Tuesday, then returned to 49.5 this afternoon. Now, however, it's back at 48.5, with the Over is getting 59% of tickets/58% of money.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: On Sunday night, Green Bay opened -4.5 in Caesars' NFL Week 18 odds market. The line stuck there all week until advancing to Packers -5 this afternoon.
Aaron Rodgers and Co. are seeing 62% of spread tickets/64% of spread money for the last game of the regular season, on Sunday night. There's no Monday night game this week.
“It’s weird that they didn’t put [Lions-Packers and Rams-Seahawks] at the same time,” Pullen said, noting Detroit needs an L.A. win earlier Sunday in order to still be alive Sunday night. “This line is going to move drastically after Rams-Seahawks. How drastic? I don’t know. We’ll probably end up taking this game down when Rams-Seahawks starts or keep it up and keep a close eye on it.
"We’ve seen it before, when one game impacts a later game, bettors will jump all over the later game based on scoring in the earlier game. But I’m still expecting this game to easily have the biggest handle of the week.”
The total opened at 48.5, went to 49.5 Monday, then Tuesday nudged to 49, where it remains tonight. The Over is garnering 70% of early tickets/77% of early money.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The NFL moved this game into the final slot of the regular season, on Sunday night. Green Bay's playoff hopes hinge solely on just winning the game. Detroit can make the playoffs, but needs help: The Lions have to win, and have the Seahawks lose to the Rams earlier Sunday.
PointsBet USA opened the Packers as 4.5-point home favorites and stuck there until late this morning before nudging Green Bay to -5. It's two-way point-spread action, with 53% of early tickets on the Lions/57% of early dollars on the Packers.
The total opened at 48.5 late Sunday night and went to 49.5 Monday evening. It's been stable at 49 since Tuesday morning, with tickets running 3/1 and money 6/1 on the Over.
UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: A month ago, the Packers' season was considered a lost cause. A perfect December, however, has Aaron Rodgers and the Pack on the brink of the playoffs.
In Week 17, the Packers (8-8 SU and ATS) closed as 3.5-point favorites and thumped Minnesota 41-17. Green Bay enters Week 18 on a 4-0 SU and ATS upswing.
Detroit (8-8 SU, 11-5 ATS) doesn't control its destiny, but can still find a way into the postseason. The Lions stayed on track by blasting Chicago 41-10 as 4.5-point home faves in Week 17.
Detroit is 7-2 SU/8-1 ATS in its last nine games, and the first game in that run was a 15-9 home victory catching 4 points against Green Bay.
"The Packers control their own destiny. They win, and they're in as a wild card," The SuperBook's Neil Fitzroy said. "The Lions need to win and have the Seahawks lose to the Rams. We should get an all-out effort from both teams. We could see good two-way action on this game."
The line and total are both stable tonight on The SuperBook's NFL Week 18 odds board, at Packers -4.5/48.5.
Opening line: Eagles -11.5; Over/Under 40.5
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 2:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: About two hours before kickoff, Philadelphia is all the way out to -16.5 at WynnBet. New York elevating practice squad QB Davis Webb to starter today, along with resting several other key players, certainly helped bolster this line.
Last Sunday, the Eagles opened -13.5 (-115) and shortly thereafter fell back to -13 (-120). By Monday afternoon, Philly stabilized at -14 and stuck there most of the week. But on the Webb news, the Eagles went to -14.5/-15.5 Saturday, then climbed to -16/-16.5 today.
The Giants are landing 67% of spread tickets at WynnBet, while 61% of spread money is on the Eagles.
The total opened at 40.5 and steadily rose to 43.5 over the course of the week. But it fell straight back to 42 Saturday evening. The Over is getting 65% of tickets/56% of cash.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Philly has spent pretty much all week as a 14-point chalk at Caesars Sports, up a tick from Sunday night's -13.5 opener. But all the spread action is on New York, despite the fact that coach Brian Daboll will likely rest several key players. Ticket count is 8/1 and money 5/1 on the Giants.
“It depends on how many players the Giants sit,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “Also, it looks like [Jalen] Hurts is coming back, but how effective will he be? It’s a high number, and we’ve seen plenty of times where teams that seem like mismatches on paper, that they’re right there. This line seems a little high to me. It's still a division game, and whoever plays for the Giants will give it their all. So I’m not surprised that the Giants are getting this many bets. We’ve seen 'dogs bark in this spread range all season long.”
The total opened at 40.5, reached 43 by late Tuesday afternoon and hasn't moved since. It's two-way play, with 56% of bets on the Under/56% of money on the Over.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: New York plans to rest several players, and Philadelphia needs a win to secure the NFC's No. 1. And it appears Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (shoulder) will be available after missing the last two games, though he's still listed as questionable.
PointsBet USA has Philly at -13.5 on its NFL Week 18 odds board. The Eagles opened -13.5 late Sunday night, spent the first half of the week at -14, then inched back to -13.5 for a few hours today. Midafternoon, the Eagles returned to -14, but tonight are back at -13.5.
With such a big number, early spread ticket count is 5/1 and early spread money 4/1 on the underdog Giants.
The total opened at 40.5, stretched to 43 by Tuesday night, then touched 43.5 a couple of times this afternoon. It's now at 43, with ticket count 6/1 and money well beyond 9/1 on the Over.
UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: It's pretty simple for Philadelphia: Win in Week 18 and get the NFC's top seed, and the first-round bye that comes with it. Fortunately, it appears QB Jalen Hurts (shoulder) will return after missing two games.
The Eagles could've clinched the No. 1 seed with a Week 17 win over the visiting Saints. But Philly (13-3 SU, 8-8 ATS) couldn't get on track behind backup Gardner Minshew, losing 20-10 as a 4.5-point chalk.
New York (9-6-1 SU, 12-4 ATS) clinched a wild-card spot in Week 17. The Giants pounded the Colts 38-10 as 5.5-point home favorites.
In Week 14, with a healthy Hurts, the Eagles trucked the Giants 48-22 laying 7.5 points on the road. This week, with Philly opening as an 11.5-point fave and quickly climbing tonight on The SuperBook's NFL Week 18 odds board, it's clear bookmakers believe Hurts is all in.
"We're at Eagles -14," The SuperBook's Neil Fitzroy said. "The game means nothing to the Giants. They have clinched a wild card and will be the 6 seed in the NFC. The Eagles need to win to clinch the 1 seed and get home-field advantage in the playoffs. The Giants will probably sit most of their starters. We will most likely need the Giants."
Opening line: Bills -7.5; Over/Under 43
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: Shortly before kickoff, the Bills are 8-point favorites at WynnBet, matching last Sunday's opening number. Buffalo fell to -7.5 and then -7 by Monday morning, then returned to -7.5 Monday afternoon.
The game came off the board after the Bills-Bengals Monday night game was suspended and later canceled. WynnBet went back up Thursday at Buffalo -7 (-115), and by this morning, the Bills reached -8 again.
Spread ticket count is 3/1 and spread money beyond 6/1 on the Bills. And bettors are all over Buffalo moneyline too. So WynnBet is rooting for at least a Pats cover, and an outright win would be more ideal.
The total is at 44, after opening at 43 and bottoming out at 42.5. Ticket count is 3/1 and money 9/1 on the Over.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The Bills are 7-point favorites in Caesars Sports' Week 17 NFL odds market, down a point from Sunday's -8 opener. In between, Buffalo was at -7.5 from late Sunday night until Wednesday night.
Point-spread ticket count is just shy of 2/1 Bills, but spread money is just beyond 2/1 Patriots.
The total went from 43 to 42.5 Monday, then didn't move again until going to 43 and 43.5 this morning. The Over is nabbing 81% of tickets/61% of money at Caesars.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The NFL is still working on its game plan after the Bills-Bengals Monday night game was halted in the first quarter. Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin had a cardiac event on the field, and the decision was made not to continue the game. The Bills trailed 7-3. Today brought great news that Hamlin is making significant progress, though still with a long way to go.
The league is keeping the Patriots-Bills game in place, with playoff implications for both teams. PointsBet USA opened Buffalo -8.5 late Sunday night, then took the game off the board over the past couple of days. PointsBet reopened at Bills -7 this morning.
Buffalo is drawing 61% of early spread tickets, while 73% of early spread money is on New England. On the moneyline, despite the Bills sitting at a hefty -300 currently, early tickets and money are in the 9/1 range on Buffalo.
The total hasn't moved off 42.5 in PointsBet's NFL Week 18 odds market. Tickets and money are in the 2/1 range on the Under.
UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: This matchup is doubly good: Buffalo needs it in the chase for the AFC's No. 1 seed, while New England needs it to guarantee a wild-card berth.
The Patriots (8-8 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) stayed alive for a postseason with a must-win in Week 17. New England held off a reeling Miami outfit 23-21, though the Pats failed to cash as 3-point favorites.
Buffalo (12-3 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) still has Week 17 work to do, in a huge matchup as it relates to the AFC picture. The Bills travel to Cincinnati to face the Bengals on Monday Night Football.
In Week 13, the Bills were 4-point favorites at New England and topped the Patriots 24-10.
"We're currently at Bills -7," The SuperBook's Neil Fitzroy said, noting a half-point decline in this number tonight. "If the Pats win, they make playoffs as a wild card. If they lose, they need a lot of help to get in. The Bills can clinch the 1 seed if they win [Monday] night and next week vs. the Pats. There's some sharp play on the Pats at +7.5."
Fitzroy said sharp bettors also hit New England +10 on last week's look-ahead line in the NFL Week 18 odds market.
Opening line: Bengals -7; Over/Under 43
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS)
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: WynnBet is all the way out to Bengals -11, after opening at Cincy -6 (-115) last Sunday. Baltimore has no Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley at QB due to injuries, so rookie Anthony Brown is starting.
Cincinnati is taking 62% of spread bets/70% of spread money. The total dropped from 43 to 39.5 by Friday, and it hasn't moved since. Tickets are 2/1 on the Over, but money is 4/1 on the Under.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: With how the NFL opted to handle the cancellation of the Bills-Bengals game, Cincinnati – despite already being declared the AFC North champion – finds itself in a position of having to win Sunday to guarantee a home game on Super Wild Card Weekend.
Fortunately for Cincy, Baltimore has ruled out QB Lamar Jackson, who will miss his fourth straight game.
Caesars Sports opened the Bengals and spent most of the week toggling between -7 and -7.5. This morning, however, the line shot to -8/-8.5/-9, then briefly touched -10, in part due to the news that Jackson would indeed sit. This afternoon, the line settled in at Cincinnati -9.
Point-spread ticket count is almost 3/1 and spread money beyond 9/1 on the Bengals, largely because of one massive wager at Caesars: $275,000 on Bengals -7.
The total opened at 42.5 and steadily declined throughout the week before bottoming out at 39 this morning. It's now at 39.5, with the Under taking 58% of tickets and a hefty 86% of money.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: As noted in the above Pats-Bills write-up, Cincinnati's Week 17 game against Buffalo was halted. At the moment, reports are that it will not be rescheduled, but the NFL hasn't made a formal announcement on how it plans to proceed.
The only certainty is that Ravens-Bengals will go on as scheduled. On a line that just went up today, PointsBet USA has Cincy a 7-point favorite, with the Bengals taking 62% of early tickets/53% of early money. Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson (knee) once again did not practice today, and he could well miss his fourth straight game.
The total opened at 41.5 this morning and dipped to 40.5 by mid-afternoon. Early ticket count is 4/1-plus and early money beyond 9/1 on the Under.
UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: If Cincinnati beats Buffalo in the Week 17 Monday nighter, the Bengals will remain alive for the AFC's top seed. A loss Monday night, and Cincy (11-4 SU, 12-3 ATS) might find itself sweating out clinching the AFC North in Week 18.
The Bengals are arguably the hottest team in the league, on the field and at the betting window. Joe Burrow and Co. are on a 7-0 SU run and a 12-1 ATS spree.
Meanwhile, Baltimore has a wild-card slot wrapped up, and the Ravens controlled their own destiny to win the AFC North if they won in Week 17. Which they did not. Baltimore gave up a last-minute TD against Pittsburgh and lost 16-13 giving 1.5 points at home on Sunday night.
The SuperBook posted Ravens-Bengals earlier this evening, but didn't leave it up for long.
"It's currently off the board, with Lamar Jackson questionable and the Bengals playing the Bills [Monday night]," The SuperBook's Neil Fitzroy said. "I'm not sure what will be at stake and where motivations are in this game until we know the results of the Bengals' game [Monday]."
Way back in Week 5, Baltimore beat visiting Cincinnati 19-17, though the Bengals covered as 3-point pups.
Opening line: Dolphins -3.5; Over/Under 41.5
Time: 1 p.m. ET Sunday (FOX)
UPDATE 12:30 P.M. ET SUNDAY: With kickoff approaching, the Dolphins are laying 3.5 points at WynnBet, as Miami prepares to start Skylar Thompson against New York's Joe Flacco. Miami opened -4 and the line swung to New York -1 midweek, but it's since swung back the other way.
The Dolphins are seeing 58% of spread bets/64% of spread dollars.
With the QB situation, the total is down to 37 from a 41.5 opener at WynnBet. Ticket count is just short of 2/1 on the Over, but money is beyond 2/1 on the Under.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: It'll be the Backup Bowl as Miami tries to scratch out a playoff berth. Third-stringer Skylar Thompson will start for the Dolphins, and Joe Flacco will be under center for the Jets.
Initially, Caesars opened Miami -3.5 (even), thinking at least Teddy Bridgewater would be at QB, with Tua Tagovailoa still in concussion protocol. But Bridgewater has been questionable all week due to a finger injury. The line got to Jets -1 by late Wednesday morning.
However, with New York's QB issues – Mike White was ruled out with a rib injury, and the team has no faith in Zach Wilson – the number flipped once again. By late this morning, Miami was back at -3 and is now -3 (-120). Spread tickets and money are in the 3/1 range on the Dolphins.
The total opened at 41 on Caesars' NFL Week 18 odds board and tumbled to 38 by Monday night. It nudged up to 38.5 Tuesday morning, but on this morning's Flacco announcement, the total fell to 37.
Ticket count is almost even on the total, with a slight lean to the Over, but money is 8/1 on the Under.
UPDATE 6 P.M. ET THURSDAY: Late Sunday night, the Dolphins opened -3 in PointsBet's Week 18 NFL odds market. By Monday night, the line was down to pick 'em, with Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion protocol) noted as unlikely to play this week.
Furthermore, Dolphins backup QB Teddy Bridgewater is questionable with a finger injury. So Miami's flagging playoff hopes could rest on third-string QB Skylar Thompson or Mike Glennon, who this week was signed to the practice squad.
Interestingly, by late this afternoon, the line shifted to Dolphins -2. Point-spread ticket count is 2/1 and spread money 3/1 on Miami.
The total opened at 41.5 and made its way down to 38 by Monday night. It's been stable at 38.5 since Wednesday morning, with 62% of tickets/84% of cash on the Under.
UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: After Week 12, Miami was solidly on a playoff track and with an MVP candidate at quarterback. Five weeks later, Tua Tagovailoa is in the midst of another concussion protocol stint, the Dolphins have lost five in a row, and they're on the outside looking in.
With Teddy Bridgewater at QB in Week 17, Miami (8-8 SU and ATS) lost at New England 23-21, though the Dolphins covered as 3-point road pups. Bridgewater threw a third-quarter pick-six that proved to be a big difference maker.
New York's postseason aspirations fell by the wayside in Week 17, so the Jets (7-9 SU, 8-8 ATS) can only be spoilers now. The Jets were 2-point faves at Seattle and lost 23-6.
In Week 5, New York drilled Miami 40-17 as a 3-point home underdog.
The SuperBook's Neil Fitzroy said there's not much to report tonight on this matchup. That said, Miami is down to -3 in the NFL Week 18 odds market. The total also fell a half-point to 41, but it's already returned to 41.5.
Opening line: Jaguars -6; Over/Under 38.5
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN)
UPDATE 7:15 P.M. ET SATURDAY: An hour before kickoff, TwinSpires Sportsbook has the Jags a 6.5-point home chalk. That matches Jacksonville's opening number, and the Jaguars spent time at -6 this week, as well.
Jacksonville is seeing 57% of spread tickets and 65% of spread dollars.
"The Titans have ended up being a big need for us. Jacksonville is 10/1 in teaser liability," TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said.
The total has operated in a small range, opening at 39.5, dipping to 39 and now sitting at 39.5. It's two-way action, with the Over netting 55% of tickets/59% of cash.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Twenty-six hours or so until kickoff, Caesars Sports' NFL Week 18 odds board has Jacksonville a 6.5-point favorite. The Jags opened -7 (-105) Sunday night, saw -7 (-110) a couple times shortly thereafter, but then dipped to -6.5 Monday morning.
Wednesday afternoon, the number went to Jags -6, then Thursday afternoon returned to -6.5, where it remains tonight. Jacksonville is seeing 59% of early spread tickets, but 64% of early spread cash is on Tennessee. That's due to bets of $110,000 on Titans +6.5 and $100,000 on Titans +6.
"You can’t fault people for taking the Titans,” Caesars assistant director of trading Adam Pullen said. “Yes, they’ve been brutal, they’ve lost six in a row and their quarterback situation is troubling. But [Derrick] Henry is back, and they still have a decent defense. The total is low, around 40, so getting a touchdown or close to it, I don’t disagree with the people taking that number in this type of spot.”
Caesars opened the total at 38.5 and by Tuesday morning got to 40, and the number hasn't moved since. The Over is netting 62% of tickets/57% of money.
UPDATE 6:30 P.M. ET THURSDAY: The big news today is that Titans stud running back Derrick Henry (hip) is not on the injury report. Henry sat out last week's home loss to Dallas.
The winner of this game also claims the AFC South title and the No. 4 seed, while the loser's season is over. Jacksonville opened as a 6.5-point home chalk at PointsBet USA on Sunday night and, within an hour, briefly touched -7, then returned to -6.5. On Tuesday night, the Jags dipped to -6, where the line remains now.
Jacksonville is nabbing 56% of early spread bets/61% of early spread money. And despite being -275 on the moneyline, the Jags are seeing 83% of tickets/95% of money early on in that market.
The total opened at 38.5, climbed to 40 by Tuesday and hasn't moved since. The Over is getting 61% of tickets, while the Under is taking 65% of money.
UPDATE MIDNIGHT ET SUNDAY: Neither of these teams had anything to play for in Week 17, with the AFC South title coming down to this Week 18 clash regardless.
Tennessee seemed poised to run away with the division prior to Week 12, thanks to a 7-1 SU stretch (8-0 ATS). But the Titans (7-9 SU, 8-7-12 ATS) haven't won since, dumping six consecutive games. Ryan Tannehill (ankle) is done for the season, and neither rookie Malik Willis nor newly added Josh Dobbs have been up to the task.
In the Week 17 Thursday nighter, the Titans were hefty 13.5-point home pups and fell just shy of cashing in a 27-13 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.
Jacksonville (8-8 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) is a surprise playoff pursuer. The Jags have won four in a row and five of six SU and ATS. In Week 17, Trevor Lawrence and Co. hammered Houston 31-3 laying 3.5 points on the road.
The Jags' upswing began with a 36-22 win as a 3.5-point 'dog at Tennessee. Early action tonight favors Jacksonville.
"We're currently at Jags -7," The SuperBook's Neil Fitzroy said, noting a 1-point rise from the opening line. "Some money showing on the Jags at -6."
The total is stable at 38.5.